Position Estimation: Geostrategic Studies Network
The election of Masoud Pezeshkian as the new president of Iran is a turning point in the political history of the Islamic Republic. This election comes at a time when Iran faces multiple internal and international challenges, and indicates the continuation of the regime’s tense policies in the region and the world.
Commitment to the “Axis of Resistance”:
In his first statements after his election, Pezeshkian emphasized support for Iranian proxy groups in the region. In a letter to Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary-General of the Lebanese Hezbollah, he announced that support for the "resistance" would continue strongly. This position indicates that Iran's foreign policy will remain unchanged in the new era. Like his predecessor Ebrahim Raisi, Pezeshkian believes that “support for the resistance” is rooted in the basic policies of the Iranian regime, Khomeini’s ideas, and Ali Khamenei’s directives.
Continued tension with the West:
Given Pezeshkian's history of supporting the Revolutionary Guard and opposing America, it appears that existing tensions with the West will continue. In 2019, when the United States designated the IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization, Pezeshkian and other lawmakers presented a plan to “strengthen the IRGC’s position against the United States.” This plan was considered one of the reasons for subsequent tensions between the Iranian regime and the American government.
Regional security challenges:
Iran's support for proxy groups in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon will remain one of the main sources of tension in the Middle East. Statistics show that Iranian-backed militias carried out more than 190 attacks against US forces in Iraq and Syria between October 2023 and February 2024. Before that, Iranian-backed groups were responsible for the deaths of at least 603 US forces personnel in Iraq between 2003. And 2011.
The prominent role of the Revolutionary Guard:
In his election debates, Pezeshkian called Qasem Soleimani a “national hero” and defended the IRGC’s drone and missile program. These positions indicate that the Revolutionary Guard will continue to play a prominent role in Iran's domestic and foreign policy-making.
After the killing of Qassem Soleimani by the United States in Iraq, Pezeshkian publicly supported the Revolutionary Guard and the Iranian regime's regionally inflammatory policies, demonstrating this by wearing an IRGC uniform in Parliament.
Internal conflicts and elections:
The recent elections witnessed intense competition between different factions, especially between Muhammad Baqir Qalibaf and Saeed Jalili. These rivalries reflect deep divisions within Iran's power structure. Reports published in the regime's media indicate that these two factions used all their capabilities and support and attempted to increase their influence and power.
Kayhan newspaper, which is close to Khamenei, wrote: “The intense competition between Qalibaf and Jalili not only affected the election results, but also forced Khamenei to choose Masoud Pezeshkian to create a balance between these two factions.”
Broad boycott and challenge to legitimacy:
The recent elections faced a widespread popular boycott, with international and Persian-speaking media reports confirming that this was the lowest turnout in the history of the Islamic Republic. This broad boycott, in addition to demonstrating the people's deep dissatisfaction with the regime, unbalanced the regime and created a new chapter in the rule of the Velayat-e Faqih.
a future vision:
Pezeshkian stressed that he will follow the opinion of the regime's Supreme Leader in directing the regime and its policies, including appointing ministers. In 2009, he said: “The Supreme Leader is everything from which we derive our lives, our faith, and our beliefs.” This situation suggests that fundamental changes in Iran's key policies appear unlikely.
Continuation of current policies may increase international isolation and exacerbate economic problems. In addition, with the widespread boycott of the elections and public discontent, there is the potential for increased internal tensions.
Final conclusion:
The election of Pezeshkian as the new president of Iran shows that despite the change in the head of the executive branch, the Iranian regime's main policies remain on the path of confrontation with the international community and support for proxy groups in the region. This approach could have serious consequences for the stability of the region and Iran's relations with the world.
However, the highlight of this election was the big “no” that the Iranian people directed to the entire electoral process. The widespread boycott and extremely low participation in the elections showed that the Iranian people no longer believe in the possibility of reforming this regime.
This position was reinforced by large demonstrations and rallies organized in cities such as Berlin and Paris by Iranians opposed to the regime. Of particular note is the rally in Paris, which witnessed the participation of hundreds of prominent political figures from various countries. This major international event demonstrated the extent of global support for the Iranian opposition and the aspirations of the Iranian people for change.
These widespread protests and rallies outside Iran, coupled with deep discontent within the country, convey a clear message: The Iranian people's response to this entire regime is only to overthrow it. They demand a radical change in the country's political structure and no longer believe in solutions within the system.
Under these circumstances, the Velayat-e Faqih regime is going through one of the most sensitive stages in its history. Any change or development can have a broad impact on its future. The election of Pezeshkian, like the last period of the Shah's rule, reflects the strategic weakness of the regime in the face of multiple internal and external crises and could accelerate the process of the regime's downfall.
This situation has created new opportunities for forces opposing the regime to increase their activities against it, taking advantage of the current circumstances to move closer to their goals of establishing a free and democratic Iran.
