The Arab League will move to activate Syria’s membership,
but how should it be? (Foresight events)
A strategic analysis of: Ibrahim Kaban
Private / Geostrategic Network for Studies
The danger of isolating Syria at the Arab level
The dilemma of the Syrian regime’s exclusion from the Arab incubator caused the opening of the way for regional and international powers to exploit Syria’s isolation in the Arab world, and then turned the country into a molding in the mouth of the Iranian and Turkish regimes, which apparently show differences while agreeing on the occupation of Syrian lands and bounties in the depths, and they interfered in Syria's political and economic affairs to the extent that the Arab League no longer has any real influence on the course of the Syrian civil war and its joints, which prompted the regime itself to exploit the sectarian dimension in consecrating Iranian interests in exchange for the Turkish intelligence administration to the Sunni segment that did not ally with Assad while it turned around the Turkish regime in the occupation The country, the people, and the integrity of the Syrian territory, and its national security was attacked in the interest of protecting the Turkish national security, and the strategic interests of Iran.
Iran has expanded greatly at the expense of the four Arab countries, "Iraq - Syria - Lebanon - Yemen" and has become the most important "driver and stirring" for political and sectarian unrest in the Middle East. It has been able to recruit large segments of these countries by spreading the spirit of sectarian differences and political mobilization that consecrate Persian hegemony Shiite.
While the Turkish state took advantage of the Syrian event, and proceeded to use sentiments and sectarian fervor through the Muslim Brotherhood movement, and to mobilize extremist groups that turned northern Syria into centers for training, arming and sabotage in favor of Turkey's expansionist agenda and projects, and it was not satisfied with that, but expanded to several Arab countries through the individuals of these The extremist group, although striking Libyan unity and supporting extremists there is at the top of the list, yet the destruction of the north of Syria, the plunder of its economic and industrial energies, and making it fertile ground for preparing and gathering extremists and suicide bombers, and expanding southward transformed the Gulf countries that witnessed unrest, problems and confrontations with extremist groups and Qatar, and the expansion towards Egypt to push the Brotherhood network and al-Qaeda. As well as the use of Syrians in the battles of Libya and Azerbaijan and, more recently, Kashmir and northern Iraq / Kurdistan region /, and the Turkish regime was not satisfied with that, but rather used the Syrian refugees file to put pressure on the international community and intimidate the European Union in order to include its silence regarding the criminality committed by this regime in northern Syria against the Syrian states and their components. In the north and east of the country. As a result, governorates such as Idlib, the cities of “Azaz, Jarablus and al-Bab,” as well as the areas that were occupied during the past two years, “Afrin, Ras al-Ain, and Tal Abyad” turned into a back farm to develop the system of extremist groups and use them according to Turkish national interests at the expense of Arab national security and Syrian territorial integrity.
Arab awareness of the size of the risks posed by Turkey and Iran
The UAE realized the danger of these geopolitical transformations in the region, so it headed to revive relations with the Syrian regime in order to pull the rug from under the feet of Iranian projects, in exchange for the Egyptian understanding of the results of the Syrian events and the size of the risks resulting from the isolation of Syria and the Turkish occupation of the north, and it, in turn, will join the adoption of the Emirati vision. In the need to restore relations with Syria. But the question that haunts the observer of events, which Syria will these countries return to the Arab League?
Syria's return to the Arab Incubator must require the activation of its membership in the Arab League, and this means recognition of the existing system that does not develop and has not changed despite all the tragedies that Syria has witnessed, and led to the destruction of half of the country and the sabotage of its infrastructure, as well as the displacement of no less than 9 million of The Syrian strategic areas towards another small area controlled by the Turkish intelligence and used against the Syrian Kurds and Arabs. In the same context, this return to resolving some of the basic problems that prepares Syria to be acceptable to the Arab street and its governments, as the ethnic liquidation practiced by the Syrian regime with Iranian motive and Russian silence against Sunni Arabs is not an easy matter to be accepted by the Arab street, especially since events have revealed the truth of an agreement. Between the Turkish-Syrian regimes, under Iranian auspices, in making a comprehensive demographic change in the country, according to which the Sunni Arab segment was displaced to the Kurdish region in exchange for the displacement of the Kurds to the Badia and some of them outside Syria, and in the same context the resettlement of Alawites and Shiites in the interior of Syria, and this dilemma is not an issue. It is easy to overcome in light of the continuation of the Syrian regime with the same pace and mentality in addition to the strong Iranian presence in controlling the decisions of this regime, and what the Turkish regime constitutes in terms of using that migrant segment in leading the holistic wars to get rid of the Syrian Kurds and open the way for the Sunni Arab Syrians to empty their internal areas of the regime and displacement To the Turkish interior, in order to use them for several cases, including their travel to Europe or their naturalization in Turkey.
Our understanding of what is happening shows us the extent of the difficulties that stand in the way of any development of the Syrian situation. Consequently, Syria cannot return smoothly to the incubator and the Arab League unless it resolves some of the main issues that can be solved internally under Arab auspices.
Kurdish dilemma and dialogue between Damascus and Qamishlo
It is not possible to overlook the field reality that Syria is witnessing in terms of sharing the powers, influence and capabilities that each party possesses, the volume of international support that imposes its weight on any internal solutions, and the amount of disputes and grievances that have been perpetuated by the Syrian regime during the past decades against the Kurdish component in the country. The Syrian-Syrian dialogue path in the two main parties' circle, the Autonomous Administration region and the Syrian government area, constitute a focal force for the economic, political and military League of Syria, as parity exists in practice between these two forces, and the area of control does not differ by virtue of the Syrian Democratic Forces controlling the vast amount of oil sources Gas and agricultural wealth, as well as water dams, in exchange for the Syrian government's control over large areas of the country, and combining the two forces according to the standard of integrated dialogue and the appropriate agreement that satisfies everyone, will also ensure the unity of the Syrian will from the gate to confront Turkish-Iranian projects alike.
Since the Emirates, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have good relations with the Autonomous Administration and the Syrian Democratic Forces, as well as the Emirates of excellent relations with the Syrian government, and there is an Egyptian rapprochement for both parties, with the possibility of Saudi Arabia entering the solution line, sponsoring the dialogue between the two parties will naturally result from a Syrian agreement, in accordance with the principle of territorial integrity. Syria and decentralization, and thus it will facilitate the process of Syria's presence as a state in the Arab League. This process will ensure that the Arab countries return to Syria to its incubator and university, as well as lead the Turkish-Iranian attempts to divide Syria and control its capabilities.
The Syrian opposition is between Ankara, Moscow, Cairo, the Persian Gulf and the Autonomous Administration region
The entire Syrian opposition cannot be made into one basket in the presence of different opposition, some of which present blackish visions that cannot be understood in a way that any development can be based on to restore Syria to its health, especially those dependent on the Turkish embrace, as these groups have resolved their order in the service of Turkish interests, their expansion projects and Turkish operations In northern Syria, the stability and unity that Syria enjoys has been hit. Even the presence of these groups in any international frameworks around Syria is only used in accordance with its national interests.
While the opposition that emanates from the Syrian interest, until the moment does not have the elements of pressure and influence, because the direct contact between the groups supported by Turkey with the areas where the violators reside with the regime is carried out under Turkish auspices, and no person or group can condemn forces other than those imposed by Turkey, and thus the intelligence has ruled The Turkish government is on most of the political and armed groups that belonged to political forces outside Turkey.
This means that any dialogue sponsored by the Egyptian - Emirati - Saudi Arabia between the Syrian parties does not take place without the Turkish presence, and this is not possible in this inconsistent political atmosphere between these parties and Turkey, while the political groups that stem from the Cairo and Saudi Arabia platform are in fact merging. With the political and military movement in northern and eastern Syria, and there will be a Syrian military move compatible with the Syrian Democratic Forces, and it may also be with Russian approval, and American-French blessing. Thus, we have two forces for dialogue, "the Syrian Democratic Council - the Syrian regime", while those subject to Turkish interests will They remain completely isolated until the Syrians unite under Arab auspices, and the idea of Turkey's exit from northern Syria is raised.
The American - Russian role
In practice, the Russian-American influence in Syria cannot be overlooked, but the general mood of the two powers tends to favor the Arab League to play an important role in this context, and Russia has expressed on many occasions the need for Syria to return to the Arab League, and neither will America prevent this trend. As long as it will not diminish its influence in northern and eastern Syria, and it will also push the Syrian situation to reduce or remove the head of the regime while preserving the institutions and the state structure, by virtue of the American experience in Iraq and Afghanistan it has failed to make a comprehensive change and the complete destruction of the state structure, meaning there will be no American obstacle. From this development, it has always preserved its military presence and political presence in northern and eastern Syria, which is, of course, an Arab demand to prevent Iran from expanding and Turkey to expand.
In the final analysis
There will be an Emirati-Egyptian move, and it may also be Saudi, and a Russian-American-Israeli understanding to reactivate Syria's membership in the Arab League, and this approach has important advantages on the Syrian and Arab arena, in addition to preventing the Turkish and Iranian regimes in sharing Syria between the Shiites and the Muslim Brotherhood. Thus, a new strategy is crystallized to prevent the Turkish regime from Turkifying the occupied areas of Syria, as the Turkish state and armed and extremist groups carry out Turkish operations of the Syrian lands, and what is happening is a process of annexing part of the Syrian lands to the Turkish state according to the new Ottoman conception led by the Justice and Development Party (Al-Ra'i) Official of the Muslim Brotherhood) and its partner, the Turkish Nationalist Movement.
I believe that the general political mood in the Autonomous Administration region, as well as among a large segment in the areas under the control of the Syrian government, is heading towards radical and urgent solutions to avoid the problems and crises of poverty and bankruptcy, which has begun to plague the Syrian society as a whole and the regions of the Syrian government in particular.
