A strategic analysis of: Ibrahim Kaban
Private / Geostrategic Network for Studies
The size of the puzzle that the Turkish regime has linked during the past eight years to many issues in the Middle East, it will not be easy to control or decipher without giving a large margin to think about the Turkish strategy that is going within this fray, as the Turkish regime does not take these steps recklessly or without political contemplation. Or their study of the international general climate and the nature of western, Russian-Chinese conflicts in the Middle East, as long as the international coverage of Turkish moves is still content with statements that stem from the rejection of some of its policies and its arrogant practices in specific regions.
In every joint there are problems and time bombs that have been consecrated by this system, and the process of getting rid of them will not be as easy as some believe, because the Turkish control of some sensitive issues and its deep relations with extremist groups that raise problems in a large number of countries and regions, provided the Turkish regime with the possibility Playing on these cards, and thus enabling it to continue the expansionary policies, without real deterrence from international players in the Middle East. And confronting Turkey means a spark for many successive events, whether on the Turkish domestic level or the entire region. Meaning, the Turkish role in some important events in the Middle East cannot be underestimated.
The internal liquidation carried out by Erdogan's party "Justice and Development - Political Islam" and the Bagceli group "the extreme nationalist movement" against opponents, the opposition, army and security officers, businessmen and parallel economy, and any democratic outlet made it easier for them to continue the futility that they take as paths for their own projects, Consequently, it is not possible to rely on the Turkish interior from the gate of waiting for it to make a comprehensive change. The process of removing my Akhtabati regime in this way requires a total external effort, and partial internal movement, which has not been available until now. This system receives support and portfolios that increase its tightening and cohesion until the moment, and the Russian factor in this game has become exposed, in return for the European move, where with every penalty imposed by Europe on some side of the Turkish regime, it is met by paying billions of dollars to it!
The new American administration and the Western countries will not be ignorant of these objective conditions, and therefore the Turkish role, which is an egg-bearer in many events in the Middle East, cannot be ignored, and the Russian-American conflict over making Turkey a policeman of its interests in the region cannot then be overlooked. The example of harmony with the Turkish goals in Syria for the Russians and the Americans, and the Turkish bidding process with both parties in carrying out an open occupation of Afrin, Serekaniye and Girê Spi. And playing on the Syrian Sunni card, where the vast majority of Sunni Arabs in Syria today support Turkish projects, including confronting any development of democratic life in Syria from the Kurdish gate in northern and eastern Syria.
Turkish diplomacy is active on three fronts:
1- The Arab Countries Front (There are Turkish talks that will be held secretly with Egypt and the Emirates, and Turkey will give up creating problems in Libya and hand over the file to Egypt so that there are mutual interests between the two parties without conflict and conflict, in addition to stopping support for the Muslim Brotherhood terrorists who form a media system to discredit The president and the Egyptian regime, in exchange for removing these two countries from any cooperation or communication with the Autonomous Administration, in addition to satisfying the Emirati side by pushing the Qatari regime to calm down).
2- The American Front (presenting a secret file on the Muslim Brotherhood in 80 countries, as this file includes controlling the branches of this group, and the American Democratic Party is famous for its interest in the Brotherhood network around the world according to the scale of the previous democratic administration).
3- The European front (stopping any threat to European interests in the Eastern Mediterranean, calming the file of oil exploration and trying to restore relations with Greek Cyprus and Greece, and it will ask in return for easing European pressures and not providing any support for Autonomous Administration).
This diplomacy, which has been moving for months, has succeeded in establishing a Qatari-Saudi rapprochement, and is active through Qatari and Kuwaiti diplomats in conducting relations with Egypt and the Emirates, and approaching Saudi Arabia to close the Khashoggi file, and the United States of America helps in this matter with the Biden administration’s talk about pointing the finger at The Saudi regime, and therefore the Saudi leadership may need to strike this issue in the process of rapprochement with Turkey, and thus the common interests between Turkey and Saudi Arabia, according to the Turkish view, are sufficient to calm the Khashoggi case.
Turkey has three files about these countries:
The Syrian refugee file and the oil exploration crisis in the eastern Mediterranean / to put pressure on Europe.
The file of the Muslim Brotherhood and Libya / to put pressure on Egypt.
- The Khashoggi file and stirring up unrest in the Arabian Gulf from Qatar’s gateway - to put pressure on Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
In fact, the Turkish regime has created a set of pressure papers and operation of diplomacy in addition to military threats, of concern to these countries, and the Turkish regime will try to activate relations again with these countries, to alleviate the burden of internal problems, including the bad economic conditions that Turkey is going through, and the size of the bad relations that were formed during The last stage is with the Arab and European surroundings, and according to objective circumstances, these countries will enter one way or another on the line of calm with Turkey, and the reason for that is the Turkish riddle.
During the last stage, the Turkish regime was able to reach an understanding with the Russians on the issue of using the Turkish military presence to eliminate all the Syrian opposition, and to gather them in specific areas for uses related to Turkish national interests and security, whether in its gelatinous wars against the Syrian Democratic Forces and the Kurds in northern Syria, or in the crisis. In addition to engaging with the Syrian regime in tenders for the receipt and delivery of the regions, which were under the auspices of the Russians and the Iranians, and included the handover of 70% of the areas controlled by opposition groups to the Syrian regime in exchange for allowing the Turks to invade Kurdish areas, and this was done under Russian sponsorship in Afrin and under American sponsorship Russian joint in Serêkaniyê and Tal Abyad.
Based on these conclusions, the following questions may be asked:
1- Will Europe deal with the new Turkish moves in a positive or negative way?
2- The Arab countries that were considered strong opponents in the process of confronting Turkish expansion, will they restore relations with Turkey on the principle of mutual benefit, or will they face Turkish projects, whose outward appearance may be the restoration of relations, and in the depth the Turkish regime is looking for a way out of the turmoil that the Erdogan regime has put in it and failed Muslim Brotherhood Projects.
3- How will the American reaction be, abandoning Turkish bullying in the region or returning to the strategy of annexing Turkey in the face of Russian-Chinese projects? Especially since the Turkish nationalist Islamist regime is ready to do anything to satisfy everyone, provided that the Kurds are fighting in the Middle East .
Finally: Where is the diplomacy of the Autonomous Administration and the Syrian Democratic Council in facing all these Turkish moves?
The answer must be by drawing these countries and trends.
