and the Arab Gulf (exploring events)
A strategic analysis of: Ibrahim Kaban
Private / Geostrategic Network for Studies
The Biden administration’s handling of the Syrian situation, and the timid statements made by US officials from time to time does not necessarily mean that the United States is not necessarily serious to show the different side from the previous administration’s policies in dealing with this crisis, and therefore the American calm cannot be understood in the sense that the new administration is not interested in this. The Syrian issue or dilemma, which requires serious US intervention to impose a solution to the situation between the Syrian parties on the one hand, and to show the serious American position to deal with the detachments of the events and the remnants of the Trump administration's policies.
The turbulent scene of the Syrian crisis still retains the presence of all the forces involved in it, and perhaps maintaining the American military presence on the ground will naturally be matched by a diplomatic presence, because the status quo cannot end in a dramatic fashion as long as the factors and causes that prompted its continuation are still present and have not shown any change or Evolution towards decay.
Practically speaking, Syria is divided into a third of a force that has a local character and an international or regional motive, and the scene is not reassuring until the moment that the Turkish clinging to prominence over parts of Syria hangs over all attempts to resolve the crisis, along with the Iranian presence, which on the one hand constitutes an Israeli concern, and gives motivation and strength to the party. The Russian Federation is keen to dominate the Syrian crisis with the least losses, especially since the Russian companies that support Moscow's policies to attend the Syrian event also demand control of its fossil wealth, and with the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces supported by Washington and France, it requires the Russians to make more efforts to mitigate the losses. They incurred, in exchange for Turkish control over the armed groups of the Syrian opposition, and directing them according to Turkish strategic interests. In other words, each international or regional party clings to its strategic factors in the Syrian event, and it is not logical for any party to give up the gains it has achieved that qualify it in controlling the resolution of the solution and the war in Syria, and give them up easily.
Understand the events more deeply
We must realize that the armed groups that Turkey is using in Syria have two dimensions, the first of which is that the Americans turn a blind eye to them, and they were supporting them through Turkey in the custody of the Trump administration, as a bargaining chip with the Russian party and putting pressure on the Syrian regime, so this paper may be important for the administration Biden also, especially giving the Turkish regime a civilian presence in the occupation zones, which impedes any American or European pressure on Turkey, especially the permanent Turkish use of the Syrian refugee file against Europe, and if Idlib is exposed to any confrontations and a major war, then 5 million Syrians are present. In these areas, they will flee from them and head to the European borders. Turkey, with this policy, secured the European position in retaining the refugee card. This also affects the American position, which did not move inactive during the last period regarding the actions of the extremist groups that control the Turkish occupation areas, including the Al-Qaeda group, the remnants of ISIS and the Muslim Brotherhood network, all of which are required by the international coalition, but at the same time and for reasons related to what we mentioned, Overlook it, and allow Turkey to use this paper.
Of course, the Turkish regime always hints at Turkey's mission to curtail Russian expansion in favor of NATO, and sticking to this paper in northern Syria highlights this trend, so we are witnessing NATO's shy positions towards Turkey. The coalition countries did not include the terrorist groups used by Turkey in northern Syria, in the list of terrorism. Although the Americans and Europeans are fighting an existential war against these groups in other places? !!.
Given the expected US policies, and the strategies whose lines are being completed at the new administration's table, what is expected of them are:
The Biden administration's attempt to restore agreements with Iran, and to stop any strikes on the Iranian presence in Syria, and to achieve this imposed on the US military operating in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, not to carry out offensive operations with drones before returning to the Pentagon and obtaining approval.
- Confronting Russian projects for the United States in Syria, means curtailing Russian-Chinese expansion in the Middle East region, and thus the American-Russian confrontation in Syria will be based on the idea of limiting this role, and here we can look at the tools - the mechanisms that the Biden administration will use in Exercising pressure and achieving these goals, and this means that the Americans cannot abandon their presence in Syria in favor of any forces of the Russian alliance, and this is what American officials recently expressed through directing air strikes against Iranian sites in Syria, and bringing more soldiers and military vehicles to their areas of deployment in The control area of the Syrian Democratic Forces.
Contrary to what many believe that the new administration will exert pressure and divergence with the Arab countries while it tries to get closer to Iran to renew the nuclear agreement, I think that the Biden administration will intensify its influence in the Middle East, and the point of Syria, Iraq and the Persian Gulf will be among the strategic locations that the American administration will rely on more than the previous.
The form of dealing with the Turkish regime
The US-Turkish relations will not witness a tragic conflict as much as the Biden administration will press for democratic adjustments and support the political opposition that takes the policy of rapprochement with America and Europe as a strategic path, in contrast to the policies practiced by the Erdogan regime in creating a balance of interests between the Russians and the Americans at the same time. And the area provided by the Trump administration to the Erdogan regime in practicing political thuggery in the Middle East will not receive support from the Biden administration, without making democratic changes in Turkey.
The upcoming US-Turkish relationship can be visualized in this way: The first is: If the United States returns to the idea of curbing Russian-Chinese expansion, it will return to empowering the relationship with Turkey in a way that makes Turkey again "the trustworthy policeman at the EGA gate" and protecting Europe, and expanding in Asia, through the Islamic groups that formed between them and the Turkish regime practical and religious networks.
The second: the pressure to push the Turkish regime to undertake internal political reforms, and thus events will pave the way for the overthrow of the Turkish regime in front of the opposition in the next electoral period, and this opposition will be an ally of Europe and America, unlike the current system that oscillates between dealing with the Russians and Americans on an equal footing, which will The Biden administration rejects it, because the nature in which the Trump administration has dealt with Turkey on the basis of immediate bidding is of personal benefit is no longer a basis for the Biden administration's policies, and what is clear from developments is that the behavior that Joe Biden takes is completely different from his predecessor, and there is also a change. The Democrats have a great deal of thinking about foreign issues, and this means we have not seen a copy of the Obama administration's policies.
Logical orientation
In conclusion, we have to fully realize the nature of American foreign policies and its strategic interests, and it is not conceivable that it will abandon its interests in the Middle East so easily, and it is not in its interest to leave the Syrian arena to the Russians, or to create a crisis with the Arab Gulf states to push them to rapprochement with China, and thus the Russians . All that the Biden administration will do at this stage is to empower American interests and strategic companies with the regions and states in which they are located, while exerting some pressures to enable a margin for freedoms and democracy in the Middle East and these countries, which is required by local, regional and international circumstances in guiding our countries in the East. Centralism towards increasing the margins of democracy and dealing with rights and freedoms in a more civilized and humane manner. Meaning a local need before it was an American requirement.
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