Strategic analysis for: Ibrahim M. Kaban
The areas west of the Euphrates no longer concern Turkey much, as long as it implements its racist project for demographic change, and the majority of the Syrian Kurds have deserted from it, in exchange for the settlement of Sunni Arabs and Turkmen, while clearing the space for the Syrian regime and the Iranians in the funeral of the internal Syrian regions, and therefore both of the three parties that are hostile to the Kurdish cause have succeeded. In getting its share of the Kurdish-Sunni-Shiite cake.
The reality of the Syrian opposition dependent on the Turkish embrace, the service of Assad's agendas, and the Turkish-Iranian expansion at the expense of the security and unity of Syria
Turkey has made Syrian armed groups and civilians tools to implement its large settlement project in northern Syria, which is precisely what the Iranians have done in deepening the Syrian dependency on them by settling the Shiites in their various segments, their battalions, and the volunteers coming from some Asian countries, or at least the funeral of Sunni Arabs in A political process to secure subordination to Iran after using sectarianism and the idea of velayat-e faqih to include loyalty to its expansion projects in Syria after Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen.
In practice, the three regimes have agreed to reproduce the Assad regime in terms of form, on the condition that it be stripped of decisions that are inconsistent with Russian-Iranian-Turkish interests, after the funeral process, Turkification, and the sharing of influence and interests. The parties affected, of course, by the operation are the Sunni Arabs and the Kurds in Syria, while the political and military segment that controls the Sunni Arabs in the Turkish occupation areas, led by the Muslim Brotherhood movement led by both Turkish and Iranian intelligence, along with the remnants of ISIS and al-Qaeda, and this means the Turkish regime believes The ease of controlling these groups, and any exit of individuals and groups from this field will be filtered by the Turkish agenda within these groups, and this can be closely understood during the course of events within the Turkish occupation zones, and the methods of liquidating groups and personalities that deviate from the Turkish decision. The regions of Idlib, Afrin and Ras al-Ain / Serekaniye witnessed many events in which the Turkish intelligence carried out liquidation operations against some groups and personalities who showed positions that contradict the Turkish policies and the Muslim Brotherhood.
During the implementation of the Turkish-Syrian-Iranian agreements under Russian auspices in several regions, the events were accompanied by liquidation operations and a direct clash between some groups that resulted in reducing their role in favor of other parties, and perhaps the daily clashes taking place in the Turkish occupation areas are evidence of these liquidations between the groups, where the intelligence The Turkish government, in cooperation with the Russians, stirred up problems between the parties, including the liquidation of groups and personalities that refuse to comply with the implementation of Turkish agreements with the Syrian - Iranian regime, under Russian auspices. Including also the Russian side's implementation of violent air operations against some military bases of some groups that reject Turkish agreements with the Russians, where information is provided by Turkish intelligence to the Russian party in order to bomb those sites and give the coordinates to the Russian army that implements the scorched earth policy and liquidating that group. Consequently, the rest are forced to submit to the Turkish-Russian policies, and they become mere implementation mechanisms in the hands of the Syrian and Iranian regime, in contrast to the rhetoric and statements made by the "Syrian Coalition", the political umbrella of these groups.
During this reality, we fully realize the extent of the reality of the Turkish agreements with these parties and the Russian strikes that focus primarily in the interest of common goals, so that the size of the project agreed upon between the parties becomes clear, and the strategy of consensus between the three countries and the Syrian regime is devoted, and the model of what was implemented in Afrin and Ras al-Ain / Sari Kane and Tal Abyad are a vivid example of the Turkish regime's use of the Syrian opposition affiliated with it, with its two parts, both armed and political, against the Syrian Kurds and Arabs allied with the Syrian Democratic Forces. And the application of sectarian projects in favor of Iran from another party.
The exposed Russian game of using the Turks to gain more interests in the eastern Euphrates region
While the regime areas witnessed stifling economic conditions, Russia was looking for a way out by putting pressure on the Autonomous Administration and the Syrian Democratic Forces in order to obtain a concession in allocating an affordable share of oil and gas for the regime's benefit, and the ongoing battles of Ain Al-Issa in which the Turkish regime uses the mercenary groups of the opposition, but by agreement. With the Syrian regime and the Iranians and under Russian sponsorship, the Syrian Democratic Forces are being depleted on one side, and armed groups are distracted from developments in Idlib Governorate, and that Turkey is working to expand the areas of influence for them within the east of the Euphrates to prevent a project that divides Syria, while these groups are carrying out an operation Turkification of the North and its followers to the expansionist Turkish states.
The process of preparing the atmosphere that is taking place in Idlib governorate by the Turkish occupation to tame the armed groups to accept the Russian proposals to open trade gates with the regime's areas, and in order to break the siege on them, as well as liquidating any group outside Turkish control, and its preoccupation with foreign Turkish battles, but it is a natural product of agreements The Turkish regime with Assad and the Iranians are clearly sponsored by Russia, and most of the leaders of these groups may be aware of this fact by their politicians and militants, but they do not have the required courage to deviate from the Turkish orders because this will cost them their lives first, and thus it is not possible for them in any way to deviate from these agreements. The Muslim Brotherhood is also committed to the decisions of the Turkish regime, along with the remnants of ISIS, who find no way out to reproduce and protect them except for Turkish intelligence, as well as the Al-Qaeda organization "Al-Nusra Front" in Idlib. If Turkey turns them into a bogeyman, they will be killed by the Americans and Europeans. All of these armed groups' existence is dependent on Turkish protection, coverage and support, so they have turned into practical tools in the hands of the Turkish regime, and thus operational tools in favor of the Russian-Iranian project, and it is natural that the biggest winner is the Syrian regime, which derives its survival from the movements of these groups in the first place, and this necessarily means Implementing the demographic change project for the benefit of these parties at the expense of the Syrian territorial integrity and national and national security.
Everyone's efforts towards dropping self-management
It is no secret that the Turkish moves in invading northern Syria and the Kurdish region exclusively were made with clear Russian complicity and Iranian blessing, although the United States of America in the face of the Russian expansion had in turn ceded Ras al-Ain to the Turks as part of the competition. However, the Russian plans, which have become clearer gradually during the recent events on the Ain Al-Issa and Tal Tamr fronts, and the pressure they are exerting against the Syrian Democratic Forces, shows the extent of the danger of the Turkish-Russian plan to implement the operations to overthrow the Autonomous Administration, even though the Russian side is working to implement this in exchange for concessions From the Turkish side, in other locations where Turkey was present during its role as the first NATO policeman in the Middle East. However, the implementation of the demographic change project in Syria brings together the three parties, "the Turkish regime with Iran and Assad." Therefore, the data that result from these policies highlight the anomalies of Russian policies towards self-administration, and although Russia represents a tragic scene in front of world public opinion about the injustice of the Kurds, the actual reality on the ground shows the seriousness of the collective moves of these forces against the Syrian Democratic Forces, and confirms in Every Syrian variable is a necessity for the democratic forces in Syria to cling to the American-European presence within the Syrian event.
