Analysis: Ibrahim Mustafa (Kaban)
The Syrian regime between the abhorrent mentality of dictatorship and the hammer of the Iranians and the Russians
- The Syrian regime is moving according to a strategy to get out of the crisis with minimal losses, at the internal and Arab levels, and Russia is working to create the temporal conditions in the Middle East to re-float Assad through the gateway to protecting Russian interests in the first place. Despite the regime’s limited capabilities, the Russian acquisition of it has become an unavoidable reality, and therefore a solution to the Syrian crisis cannot be found without the Russian factor.
Until the moment, the US-European policies towards the Syrian regime have not been clear, but the Arab-Israeli rapprochement will contribute to relieving any Western pressure on the Syrian regime, by virtue of the Arab countries that are now imprinted with Israel in rapprochement with the Syrian regime.
This rapprochement may be to pull the rug out from under the feet of the Iranian regime in Syria, and certainly the guarantor of this strategy is the Russian act, which is moving to restore the regime to the Arab incubator under the pretext that “returning to the Arab League is better than excluding it for a long time,” because that would fall into the category of the Iranian regime, which Since the beginning of the Syrian crisis, he has been seeking to digest the regime and detail it according to Iranian standards, as happened in Iraq after the process of overthrowing Saddam Hussein's regime. It was formed in Lebanon during the civil war in the eighties, and is now happening in Yemen.
The issue of restoring the regime to its health is not possible. The Syrian civil war has produced three semi-autonomous regions, and the continuity of these areas is a local, regional and international action. Turkey does not want to solve the Syrian crisis because its continuation provides for continuous military intervention, and the Russians in these circumstances can control Turkish policies Aiming to fight the Kurds in Syria, in return for fulfilling the Russian desires to direct the opposition for the purposes of serving the agenda of the Syrian regime. In addition to the American-European interests that will remain in eastern Syria for the purpose of reassuring its allies in the Arab Gulf, and also the process of curtailing the Iranian role itself, the expansionist desires in the Arab region, and at the same time the file of fighting terrorism, where the United States of America and Europe found its lost in the Kurdish forces inside Syria and Iraq The Autonomous Administration region in northern and eastern Syria and the Kurdistan Federal Region in Iraq.
Reading in the conditions of self-administration and the Kurdish situation
- The Kurdish Autonomous Administration has not been able to decipher the strategic transformation from a revolutionary movement that leads the struggle and struggle for the Kurds to obtain their legitimate rights, to a political administration and authority that administers a large area of Syria, and is still suffering from the domination of the Kurdish decision that separates the situation in the Kurdish region of Syria according to its interests related to Turkey Iraq and the whole region. The Democratic and PKK parties still view the Kurdish region in Syria as a summit that must be directed according to their interests and circumstances, and therefore there is a bitter struggle between the two parties in the process of taking possession of the Autonomous Administration region. Although the Workers’ Party has the most influence in the Autonomous Administration by virtue of providing the military capabilities to defend it, the struggle led by the Democratic Party in order to secure its share according to the Fifty-Fifty rule, and this means that the Kurdish project in Syria does not go out of the neck of the two parties’ interest, and this loses the region The self-management has credibility in the international camp, because the presence of the Kurdistan Movement Party, as well as putting all efforts to liberate the general Kurdish situation on the back of the self-management, will make the Kurdish scene in Syria difficult.
While the Turkish regime is working to split the Kurdish line through the gate of the Kurdish Council group, which takes the Syrian coalition as an incubator for its activities against the Autonomous Administration, and this Syrian arm, which has turned from revolutionary forces to mercenaries run by Turkish intelligence to protect Turkish national security on the principle of fighting the Kurds of Syria, at the expense of Syrian territorial integrity and national security.
The reality of the Syrian opposition and the practical Turkish goals
- The Syrian opposition that is allied with Turkey is no longer leading a revolution or a war against the Syrian regime, because it has turned due to the Turkish directive to fight the Kurdish presence, and only vital parts of the Kurdish region in Syria remain in the hands of this opposition. Afrin - Jarablus - Azaz - Al-Bab Ras al-Ain - Tal Abyad - Qabasin", where the majority of the Kurds. The mercenary groups of the coalition carried out demographic change operations against the Kurdish people, and the number of forcibly displaced people exceeded 650,000, in exchange for the settlement of hundreds of thousands of Sunni Arabs and Turkmen, and tens of thousands of mercenary and extremist families, including ISIS members and families.
The project of conducting demographic change in Syria is in full swing, and the Iranian regime, in agreement with the Turkish regime, has implemented the process of displacing millions of Sunni Arabs from the Syrian interior towards the Syrian north, the "Kurdish region", in exchange for giving the Turkish regime the opportunity to carry out the process of demographic change against the Kurds in favor of These Sunni Arabs and Turkmen, and thus gave way to the Iranian militias and the Syrian regime to form a homogeneous society according to the standards of the Assad regime, without the Sunni Arab majority.
- The Turkish regime is aware of the fact that the Syrian file has been handed over to the Russians by the United States of America, Israel and Europe, so Erdogan, in turn, contributed to perpetuating the Russian presence in exchange for deals related to its projects and ambitions in northern Syria, and perhaps the most important file for the Turks is the Kurdish situation that has developed in northern Syria, and considers it The dilemma that threatens its existence! If the Kurds achieve autonomy similar to the Kurdistan region, and thus it will be reflected in the Kurds of North Kurdistan / Turkey.
The Arab-Israeli-Russian-Iranian scene in Syria and the Middle East
- The Iranian presence in Syria is not entirely arbitrary, and the map of Iranian ambitions is constantly expanding, especially the inclusion of control over Iraq and the strengthening of its arms in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, and perhaps the first strategic goal for it is the acquisition of the Arabian Gulf and its wealth. During the past few decades, the Iranian regime was able to build an ideological military force and develop weapons that can carry out major operations that threaten the security of Israel and the Arabian Gulf, and its sectarian arms (which it offers loyalty and obedience) can pose a real threat to Western interests in most of the Middle East, And the Arab countries, and therefore Iran cannot be removed from the geopolitical scene in the Middle East at all. Perhaps the Iranian nuclear file and the international community’s dealings with it, and the assertion that it is now a short distance from achieving a nuclear bomb, is an example of the inability of Western powers to confront it in a scenario similar to the fall of the former Iraqi regime. However, the process of curtailing Iranian expansion prompted it to move with great caution. And without prejudice to the Israeli-Western interests in the Middle East.
The Israeli air raids on Iranian sites in Syria and some of the regime’s military bases come in coordination with the Russian side, with the support of some Arab countries, and American sponsorship, and the benefit in that belongs to all parties:
As for Russia, it does not want partners in the acquisition of Syria, and since the Iranian regime has a special project in the region, it of course collides with Russian goals, except that weakening the Iranian presence cannot be done through the Russians, but Israel implements this task, which is by nature in the interest of the Arab countries that lead A conflict with the Iranian regime because of the Persian expansion plan at the expense of the Arab countries. The Western interest also lies in including the security of its allies from the Arab countries, and the most important to them is Israel, and since these Arab countries and Israel are in the process of the Abrahamic Agreement, this provides the Western powers to include the interests of these countries wholesale in the face of other projects. Although dealing with the Iranian file is very complicated, it is not possible to declare war on it for reasons related to the long-term strategic interests of Western countries.
The Gulf-Iranian conflict has produced many facts in the past four years, and the Arab-Israeli rapprochement is one of its natural results, because the damage caused by Iranian expansion exceeded the Israeli action by tens of times.
The Arab option of getting closer to Israel and forming a common front against Iranian expansion has increased the confidence of the Western powers in these countries, because Israel's security for these powers comes first. Consequently, the modernization of these countries will be closer to developing and possessing deterrent forces than remaining in estrangement with Israel at a time when Iran is developing in all respects.
The Arab countries have become aware of the Iranian deception around the cylinder to fight Israel, and during the past six decades of the Arab-Israeli conflict, Iran has not fired a shot at Israel, while Iran has proxies in Lebanon and Syria guarding Israel's security more than the Israelis themselves.
Iranian military experiences are the biggest instigator to push the Arab Gulf states to buy Western, even Russian, weapons, and the Yemeni crisis and the enclave supported by the Iranian regime are causing these countries to buy lethal weapons from Western companies in which Israel has large stakes, and thus Iranian moves serve interests Western.
Analysis of the Ukrainian-Russian crisis
The great intimidation of what is happening between Russia and Ukraine results from the Western understanding of the extent of Russian ambitions, especially the Russian rise, which has become a real concern for the United States of America and Europe, in the matter of immunizing Eastern Europe with the capabilities of NATO against these Russian ambitions. In addition, the inclusion of new countries of strategic importance to the alliance disturbs Russia in the first place. The Soviet legacy, which Russia still maintains in one way or another, is believed by the Russian regime to be a vital part of re-strengthening the Russian economy. This strategy is taken by Putin, in contrast to the Soviet regime, which was taking care of the Soviet republics, as if the current regime is restoring its debt through its replacement of these republics, especially Ukraine has land contact with Europe in addition to its sensitive geography and issues related to gas.
The Cold War did not end between the powers that were competing for interests despite the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the control of Western powers on markets and international decisions, but the Chinese-Russian rise and the strategy taken by Moscow towards expansion towards Eastern Europe from the gate of Ukraine, as part of the expansion thinking towards regaining Ashes of the Soviet legacy. These policies may push the Western powers to return to enable their interests in the region, through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and support Ukraine, and at the same time reconsider the nature of their relations with Russia in the Syrian crisis, and thus Syria will also witness a dramatic transformation in which the Russians will not be the exclusive owner of the course of the event Syrian.
The noise of Russian tracks at the gates of Europe pushes Western countries to move quickly and fear a Russian adventure that Putin might commit, in an attempt to obtain guarantees that NATO will not get close to the countries that Moscow considers a vital part of its strategic circle, and the process of occupying Crimea and some regions within Ukraine, except The process of NATO expansion and the inclusion of Ukraine into Europe will push other countries suffering from economic problems and Russian control over their resources, meaning the economic and political liberation of these countries through the Western guarantor and NATO will rid them of Russian hegemony. This is what disturbs the Russian regime and drives it to madness and the use of threatening language.
