Turkey is putting the brakes on possible Finnish and Swedish NATO membership. President Erdoğan justified his skepticism with fear of terrorism. And with the fact that Greece already belongs to the alliance.
Turkey is the first NATO state to object to Sweden and Finland joining the military alliance. "We are currently monitoring developments regarding Sweden and Finland, but we do not have a positive opinion on them," said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Istanbul on Friday .
Erdoğan said he didn't want the same "mistakes" to be made as when Greece joined NATO. Turkey has difficult relations with the neighboring country. Even joint membership in NATO has done little to change that.
"Scandinavian countries are like a guest house for terrorist organizations," Erdoğan also justified his position. Turkey has long accused the Nordic countries, particularly Sweden, where many Turkish immigrants live, of harboring extremist Kurdish groups as well as supporters of US - based preacher Fethullah Gülen .
Sweden's Foreign Minister Ann Linde said she will speak to her Turkish counterpart Mevlut Çavuşoğlu at the NATO foreign ministers' meeting in Berlin at the weekend, to which both Sweden and Finland have been invited. Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto made a similar statement.
Finland and Sweden are already close partners of NATO, but have traditionally been non-aligned. Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered an intense NATO debate in both countries. The Finnish head of state declared on Thursday that Finland should "immediately" apply for NATO membership in view of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine. A similar decision by Sweden is expected on Sunday. After decades of military alliance neutrality, this is a fundamental change of direction in defense policy for both countries.
The admission of new members must be approved unanimously by the NATO member states. So far, most of the Allies have welcomed Sweden's and Finland's ambitions. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said repeatedly that the countries would be welcomed "with open arms". Both states are welcome .
Turkey maintains good relations with both Ukraine and Russia . So far, the country has been ambivalent about the Ukraine war: Ankara supplied Ukraine with combat drones, but did not join Western sanctions against Russia. Erdoğan has repeatedly acted as a mediator between Moscow and Kiev in recent weeks .
Why are Sweden and Finland considering joining NATO?
A turning point in security policy is also taking place in Scandinavia due to the Russian war in Ukraine. Finland has now explicitly spoken out in favor of joining NATO. Sweden is also considering giving up its military neutrality and seeking accession.
Why are Sweden and Finland not in NATO?
For decades, the Scandinavian states of Finland and Sweden represented a foreign and security policy in which both states attempted to adopt neutral positions in the political structure between East and West after the Second World War. Both countries valued their freedom from military alliances.
After two costly wars against the Soviet Union in 1939 and 1941, Finland had to sign a friendship treaty dictated by Moscow. Although Finland was allowed to remain a western democracy, it had to tacitly coordinate all important foreign policy decisions with the Soviet Union.
After the end of the Cold War, the Finns regained their foreign policy freedom – like Finland, neighboring Sweden joined the European Union in 1995. Even though both states left their neutrality between the West and Russia as the successor state of the Soviet Union after joining the EU, which works closely with NATO and most of whose members are represented in NATO, accession to NATO was still not an option at the time Debate.
The annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 was viewed with particular concern by Finland. After all, the Scandinavian country shares a border of around 1,300 kilometers with Russia. Since then, both Finland and Sweden have kept a so-called NATO option open – that is, to join the defense alliance if the security situation continues to deteriorate for the countries.
Even if both countries have valued their non-alignment in the past, they have been close partners of NATO for a long time, for example they have participated in exercises or military operations of the defense alliance. In the past, Russia had called on NATO not to accept any more countries from Eastern Europe. A threat that was also directed at Finland and its neighbor Sweden.
How did the attitude of Finland and Sweden change as a result of the aggressive war?
For decades, Finland and Sweden have relied on being able to take care of their own security. Russia's war of aggression has now prompted them to fundamentally review their militarily neutral stance and consider joining NATO.
In Finland, on 12 May 2022, President Sauli Niinistö and Prime Minister Marin made a joint statement in favor of accession. The country is expected to submit an application for membership in the coming days. A security policy analysis will be presented in Sweden on May 13, which will also deal with the NATO question.
The heads of government of Finland and Sweden had already spoken in Meseberg on May 2nd. There they were guests at the cabinet retreat, at which the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also expressed his support for the countries joining NATO.
Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin and her Swedish colleague Magdalena Andersson stressed in Meseberg that the Russian invasion was forcing their countries to reassess the question of NATO membership. The attack "changed the security environment significantly," Marin said. Sweden's Prime Minister Andersson described Russia's attack on Ukraine as a "deep, drastic turning point". She went on to say, "We must adapt to these new conditions."
The fact that the security situation in these countries has deteriorated can also be seen from the fact that Russia has repeatedly threatened Finland and Sweden if they seek NATO membership, explains political scientist Gerhard Mangott from the University of Innsbruck on DLF.
EU membership also ensures a certain level of support from all EU states in the event of an attack. This is regulated by the EU assistance clause. However, the international community does not have to go to war for this – in contrast to the NATO alliance case. In view of the war, Mangott said that Finland and Sweden had now realized that NATO's ability to defend itself was worth more than the EU's solidarity clause. That's why they wanted to seek this protection, even if Russia threatened to increase troops, nuclear missiles in Kaliningrad and ships with nuclear weapons in the Baltic Sea.
Public opinion on non-alignment has also changed drastically in both countries. According to surveys, a majority of the population in Finland agrees to join the alliance for the first time. This is something completely new, explains Mangott. Also new is that only a few political forces in these Scandinavian countries are opposed to accession.
How dangerous is the transition phase before joining NATO?
In the case of an application for membership, a period of time remains open between the submission of the application and its ratification by the parliaments of all 30 NATO member states. This transition phase is considered dangerous.
In the past, Russia had repeatedly warned Finland and Sweden of the “consequences” of joining the alliance, because the two states joining the alliance would be of great strategic importance. That is why there are fears in both countries that they could be targeted by Moscow with the application. Kremlin spokesman Peskov said accession was a clear threat and a reason for a symmetrical response. However, he did not provide any specific information about the answer.
During his visit to Sweden on May 11, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson pledged to support the country during the transition period between application and NATO accession. Similar agreements also apply to Finland. Former NATO Secretary General Stefanie Babst sees this as an important signal, because Great Britain is a nuclear power. Germany, the USA and France have also given security guarantees.
In case of attack - military assistance to Finland and Sweden
NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg also assured Finland and Sweden of a certain level of protection between the time of the application and their acceptance into the military alliance. (April 28) Stoltenberg said he was confident that an amicable solution could be reached for this transition period.
Declarations of assistance from the NATO countries Denmark, Norway and Iceland are still expected. Cooperation between the northern European countries has always been close, said NATO expert Stefanie Babst on Dlf. With the admission of Finland and Sweden, all northern European countries – with the exception of Russia – would be part of NATO. Babst emphasizes that this is a strategic advantage for Allianz.
Both countries, Finland and Sweden, are very well prepared for this "grey area phase", said Stefanie Babst, former NATO Secretary General and current adviser on strategic issues, on Deutschlandfunk. They have emphasized that joining NATO should not be a provocation to the Kremlin, but they are aware that a visit to NATO will not meet with enthusiasm. For this reason, there will be more military presence and exercises on the border with Russia, but no alert, explained Babst. Nevertheless, both countries are preparing intensively in case something should happen, such as cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns or airspace violations by Russia.
Babst expects that the accession negotiations can be completed quickly. The content of the negotiations is the integration into the NATO command structure, troop presence, military services in favor of NATO missions and the financial contribution. Finnish and Swedish officers and diplomats have been present at NATO headquarters and operational command for some time, albeit only as partners. Then the treaty still has to be ratified by the 30 member states. So far, however, NATO has not announced a specific time frame for the admission process.
The heads of state and government of the 30 NATO countries could theoretically discuss Finland’s – and possibly Sweden’s – membership application at a summit in Madrid at the end of June 2022. But the ratification of the enlargement has to go through the parliaments of all member states and that could take up to a year. So far, none of the member states has spoken out against Finland and Sweden. Germany, France and the USA have already pledged their support for a possible accession. Baltic states such as Lithuania and Estonia were also popular. Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte spoke on Twitter of a "great historic day". Estonian Prime Minister Katja Kallas wrote that history is being made by the northern neighbors.
If Sweden and Finland actually join NATO, that would be a major military disadvantage for Russia, political scientist Mangott told DLF. Finland and Sweden are "two potent neighboring countries" that have significantly enlarged and strengthened NATO. In the event of war, the Finnish army has a mobilization force of 280,000 well-equipped and specialized soldiers. "They increase the clout of the North Atlantic Alliance, which is why their membership in the Alliance is so coveted," Mangott said. This distinguishes the potential accession of Sweden and Finland from the accession of other countries in recent years.
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Sources:spiegel/deutschlandfunk/ Gunnar Köhne, Helga Schmidt, Reuters, dpa, AP, AFP, cp, APD, tih
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