Special / Editorial Board of Geostrategic Studies
Dramatic shifts taking place in the Middle East, especially in the course of the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement under Chinese sponsorship and guarantee, in addition to talk about a rapprochement between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Syrian regime under Egyptian auspices, and an increase in the frequency of Israeli air strikes on Iranian sites in Syria in exchange for clashes that occur from time to time between the forces. The American forces and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in Deir ez-Zor, in conjunction with the shuttle visits of American generals to the Autonomous Administration region in northern and eastern Syria, and talk about increasing the number of American forces in Syria.
The course of the internal Turkish conflict is heating up with the approaching general elections, especially after the Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party announced its support for the Turkish opposition candidate against Erdogan.
In Jordan's two-day meeting on Syria, which lasted between March 23 and 24, representatives of the United States, Egypt, France, Germany, Jordan, Norway, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, the European Union, and the League of Arab States called for the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 2254, which provides for a political transition in Syria. However, the course of communication between the Arab countries and the Syrian regime continues and results in high-level meetings, whether publicly or in dark rooms.
At a time when there is a discussion about a rapprochement between the Syrian regime and the UAE, Assad's tours between Russia and the Emirates, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's announcement to re-establish its embassy in Damascus, Western countries stress that the regime will not be floated in any way.
On March 23, the head of the European Union mission to Syria, Dan Stănescu, stated today, Thursday, that it is not possible to normalize or lift sanctions against the Syrian regime until the regime engages in a political transition.
The European official added, that it is not possible to normalize, lift sanctions, or rebuild with the regime, until it engages in irreversible steps towards a political transition.
He pointed out that the European Union welcomes the initiatives of the Arab countries as long as they guarantee the full implementation of Security Council Resolution 2254. He stressed that "the European Union's policies are fixed and unchanged, and mere normalization without a political process means a lack of accountability."
On March 16, the United States, France, Britain and Germany issued a quartet statement, on the occasion of the twelfth anniversary of the start of the Syrian revolution, in which the four Western countries affirmed their commitment not to normalize relations with the Assad regime, and not to fund reconstruction as a result of the damage caused by the regime during The conflict and the failure to lift the imposed sanctions without achieving real and lasting progress towards a political solution, in the interest of the Syrian people.
This acceleration of events suggests an upcoming scenario in the Middle East scene, especially since the Turkish regime is trying by various means to rapprochement with the Syrian regime and end the file of disputes in order to ensure that the Syrian opposition surrenders to the regime in order to activate the Adana agreement that allows Turkey to intervene in Syria for a few kilometers in order to pursue what it claims to be fighting (The Kurdistan Workers’ Party), as the Turkish support for the Syrian mercenary groups against the Syrian dictatorial regime constitutes an obstacle to the legitimacy of the Turkish intervention in Syria, which is what the head of the Turkish regime (Erdogan) resorted to in ending the opposition file with the Syrian regime in a short time and under Russian-Iranian sponsorship , until it moves to the stage of legislating Turkey's military intervention.
The Turkish regime is trying to repeat the experience of northern Iraq (Kurdistan region) when it took the pretext of its agreements with the regime of the graves of Saddam Hussein in permanent military intervention in the Kurdistan region under the pretext of the presence of PKK elements inside Iraq. What is happening now from the clear Turkish strategy is that it is moving towards activating this scenario with the Syrian regime in the event that Kurdish autonomy in Syria is supported under American auspices, in a scenario similar to the nature of the establishment of the Iraqi Kurdistan region.
The Iranian regime agrees with the Turkish regime in implementing the Turkish plans in northern Syria, and Turkey adheres to the support of a Syrian Kurdish political party (the Kurdish National Council) in order to form two conflicting forces within the Syrian Kurdish scene, and perhaps the existence of what is known as "Peshmerga Rojava" and keeping its role for future circumstances, as well as the occupation Al-Turki, who emptied 40% (Afrin, Qabasin, Serêkaniyê, and Tal Abyad), and considering the latter as allies of Turkey, the future suggests the presence of allies for Turkey in the Syrian Kurdish region, in a scene very similar to the situation in Iraqi Kurdistan, which is allied with the Kurdistan Democratic Party Turkey, and its peers in Syria with the same path in alliance with Turkey.
In fact, the developments are not promising for the political future of northern Syria, and the Syrian Kurdish region is being established in the same atmosphere and conditions in which the Iraqi Kurdistan region was formed, and what this region is suffering from a Kurdish-Kurdish conflict.
