Political analysis by Ibrahim Kaban
- Introduction to analysis
- The quartet of evil and the continuity of desecration
- Weakening the Autonomous Administration to serve whom?
- The fate of the armed groups in northern Syria
- The Western-Arab option and our expectations
- The fate of the Iranian presence in Syria
- Turkish targets and spearheads
- In light of these circumstances, what is the path that the Syrians should take?
- Positive alignment or beneficial convergence
- Restore the Syrian decision
Introduction to analysis:
Syria is facing dramatic and articulated transformations during the coming stages, especially since the Turkish-Iranian-Russian quartet and the Syrian regime are all in complete agreement in leading the special war against the Syrian opposition represented by the revolutionaries and the Autonomous Administration, at a time when the mercenary groups that stole the revolution have become an integral part of Shabiha regime.
We are confident that the region is on the verge of a major transformation that is divided into two axes, according to the data, and the Syrian opposition forces are forced in the meantime to align themselves with one of the two axes, although we believe that the Turkish-backed opposition will continue to fight within the Iranian-Russian axis and the Syrian regime, and that the Turkish operator is about managing these armed groups And the political party called the Coalition and its sisters to the Syrian intelligence incubator to direct it according to data related to the goals of the Syrian regime to eliminate the last Syrian revolutionary strongholds.
The Evil Quartet and the Continuity of Desecration:
Everyone now realizes that the path of Astana and Sochi was an alternative to Geneva, and a circumvention of UN Resolution 2254, which calls for a transitional phase, which by its nature leads to a governing council and a federal state in which power circulates. Surprisingly, the Syrian opposition affiliated with the Turkish occupation has taken the Astana path, in light of the so-called guarantor countries' parties that are themselves involved in the shedding of Syrian blood. Iranian militias and Russian planes are the strategic partners for all the crimes of the Syrian regime. The fact that the Turkish regime took this path clearly demonstrated the extent of its involvement in the process of overthrowing the revolution in favor of this alliance.
The Syrians must fully realize that the Astana process was designed primarily to overthrow the Geneva process, because the UN decisions led by Western countries will eventually lead to the overthrow of the Syrian regime.
Despite the deep differences that dominated the scene between the Syrian and Turkish regimes, the years of the Syrian revolution proved that the intelligence and military relations did not stop around the clock, as soon as the Turkish move in emptying the Syrian interior areas vulnerable to Iranian expansion, and withdrawing the revolutionaries and their families from them to the border areas for their investment In chaotic battles in which the Syrians do not have a camel or a camel, especially since involving the Syrians in side battles in return for disrupting the confrontation with the regime, was the main reason for weakening the armed opposition, and prompting it to move away completely from the path of confrontations with the regime, as this primarily contributed to the re-strengthening of the tools The regime, and its military recovery after it almost lost control over all of Syria. If the Turkish involvement in the conference against the Syrian revolution became clear when it contributed to emptying the strategic areas of the militants in exchange for entering into direct negotiations with the regime through Iran and Russia, and subjecting the armed opposition to the process of completely disrupting the confrontation with the regime. As this contributed to strengthening the regime, reorganizing its forces, and expanding towards areas that were an arena for the control of the armed groups of the opposition.
These facts showed the Turkish complicity directly in the process of overthrowing the military opposition, as well as curbing the political opposition, and directing its military, political and media capabilities towards the Autonomous Administration areas led by the Syrian Democratic Forces.
Weakening self-administration to serve whom?
The departure of 80% of the oil wealth, gas, grains and water dams from the control of the Syrian regime directly contributed to the destruction of its economy and its weakening, and increased the chances of overthrowing it economically and militarily, and prompted the Syrian citizens in the interior regions to confront the regime in reviving the peaceful revolution. The Turkish operator involved the Syrian opposition and its military groups in fierce wars against the Syrian Democratic Forces, and carried out occupation and ethnic liquidation operations, in return for leaving space for the regime to restore internal strategic areas, and forcing the Syrian Democratic Forces to enter into bargaining with the Russians, who in turn, in agreement with the Turkish side, deployed elements of the regime in sensitive areas. In a dangerous operation, the Syrian opposition affiliated with Turkey showed itself in the worst way to serve the regime, because the regime's recovery of any economic capabilities (oil - gas - grain - water dams ... etc. from the Syrian Democratic Forces) means strengthening the regime's influence and restoring its combat and international capabilities. Thus eliminating the remainder of the revolution.
In fact, this operation contributed to the overthrow of the opposition affiliated with the Turkish occupation, and with it the entry of the Syrians into a dark tunnel, oscillating between handing them over to the dictatorial regime that seeks to return to control of the northwest. In exchange for employing the opposition against the Syrian Democratic Forces. The Turkish regime has made the armed and political groups of the opposition affiliated with it mere tools for the Syrian regime to restore its strength, health, and control.
The fate of the armed groups in northern Syria
The belief that these armed groups, which have multiple names, and each group of them controls a village or neighborhood, will liberate Syria from dictatorship, is pure fantasy, because these groups did not present 1% of a project that could be an alternative to the dictatorial regime, and all the actions and movements of these groups are only It is an imitation of the actions and behaviors of the regime. Indeed, these groups are the bad copy of the regime, especially since most of the leaders in them do not possess the lowest levels of political and military knowledge, after the Turkish regime excluded all the coordinated military elements from the regime from them, and handed over the reins of control to the hands of groups that control it. Fleeing ISIS members and some informants of the Syrian regime.
The actions of the leaders of these armed groups affiliated with the Turkish occupation arouse suspicion and fear among the Syrian civilians under the control of their influence, because the Syrian people revolted against the organized terrorism that the Syrian regime was leading against the people, and what these groups are doing is no better. According to our vision of the scene, these groups may turn from the Turkish operator to the joint operator, the Turkish-Syrian-Iranian-Russian intelligence operations room, and thus direct these groups towards opening fronts with direct support from these regimes against the Syrian Democratic Forces, whether in Manbij or Tal Rifaat (Al-Shahba areas). .
Therefore, the lives of more than three million Syrian civilians are in great danger after the quadruple agreement that took place between the Syrian and Turkish regimes, with Russian administration and Iranian participation, and their formation of a security and military operations room against the revolutionary forces in the east of the Euphrates (the Autonomous Administration area) and the Syrian revolutionary civil gatherings in the west of the Euphrates. .
The Western-Arab option and our expectations
We do not believe that the international coalition will vacate its positions in Syria for many reasons related to strategic interests and Russian expansion. Therefore, the American approach and its allies will focus on strengthening its influence through its local allies, the Syrian Democratic Forces. The scene also indicates the development of US expansion in support of the Syrian local forces, and eastern Syria may be a center for these developments. And at a time when the Quartet is moving to create a crisis west of the Euphrates against the Syrian Democratic Forces and force it to submit to the Quartet axis, the international coalition led by the United States of America is working to limit the Iranian-Russian role in eastern Syria. With this balance that will be imbalanced, the region is a candidate for more confrontations between the local forces, and the Americans will resort to strengthening their front by supporting the establishment of armed groups in the form of awakenings of Arab tribes and some Syrian revolutionary trends in the regions of the south and east, and it is possible that a cordon will arise. It starts from the areas of the Syrian Democratic Forces all the way to Al-Tanf, and may include the southwest bordering Jordan and Israel. For reasons related to the security of the Arab Gulf, this project will receive material and military support from the Arab countries.
The fate of the Iranian presence in Syria
The Iranian regime realizes that its presence in Syria, according to the process of expansion, will not find its way, because the complexities of the Syrian situation, the lack of convergence of the various projects, and the size of the threat that Iran poses to the Arab countries will lead to a clash, even if the tools are the Syrian local forces. Therefore, developments will be directed towards limiting the Iranian role in the eastern region and the Syrian desert, in return for strengthening Iranian influence in the northwest, after the formation of the joint security and military room.
Turkish targets and spearhead
At this stage, Turkey focuses on returning the Syrian regime forces to the border, and exerting pressure on the Syrian Democratic Forces in order to push them towards Russia, where the Syrian regime has the option of deploying its forces along the border at a depth of 30 km, and developing the Adana agreement that was concluded between the two parties during 1998, where it focuses The Turkish party to maintain military bases and observation points inside the Syrian territory under the pretext of pursuing elements that threaten its national security! However, the main goal of the Turkish regime is to prevent the development of the Syrian state towards federalism and decentralization, because this constitutes a dilemma inside Turkey, and the Syrian developments will be transferred to Turkey with influences Multiple identity. Pluralism means a constitution that believes in the multiple identity of Syria, and ending the national privacy of a strong party against the other components, and the internal Turkish conflict will be in this direction during the coming decades, and the development in political and democratic life in Syria by its nature prompts the rush of the democratic tide towards Turkey, and this is what the Turkish deep state and the regime fear. Political Islam and its partner national forces.
Russia clearly wants to monopolize the Syrian rule after empowering Assad and concluding agreements for many decades through which it controls the Syrian wealth and its sea, especially by preventing energy from reaching Western countries from the Syrian gate, because there were projects drawn for Syria so that there would be alternatives to the Turkish opponents.
The Russian-American conflict, or the Western conflict with the Russian-Chinese camp, is a fact that must be realized and understood in a very deep way, and the Middle East will not be far from the reach of this conflict, even if the economy, markets and sea ports control the course of this conflict, but the Syrian gate poses a real dilemma in In the midst of this conflict, and Syria’s evacuation of Russian influence in light of the increase in the encirclement of Russia from the Ukrainian-Finnish gate, it is a Russian compensation for its loss of Ukraine and the fear of western expansion into Georgia and areas that pose a real danger to Russian expansion and its recovery through the continuous production of lethal weapons.
Under these circumstances, what is the path that the Syrians should take?
These dramatic transformations are taking place in isolation from the Syrians. Even the military and political forces dividing the regions are not leaders in influencing the paths determined by the major powers that manage the scene. However, the disparity in the political and military nature of the activities is almost completely different, despite the blind subordination of the armed groups to the Syrian opposition in the northwest and the regions of Ras al-Ain and Tal Abyad, and the military partnership between the Syrian Democratic Forces and the United States and the coalition formed by 73 Western and Arab countries, and the regime’s restoration of control over more than 63 countries. % However, the areas of self-administration are the most amenable to political and civil society development, especially the alliance of this region in part with the Western powers, and it has good economic capabilities in development and development, and a good decentralizing model that may be necessary in the upcoming Syrian geographical structure, provided that the Western powers are led The United States of America is a continuous ally, because the alternative to the US is destruction. As soon as the coalition forces withdraw, it means leaving the region and the Syrian Democratic Forces vulnerable to a major war with the Quartet, which is waiting for these moments.
Therefore, the American presence and the international coalition in Syria is very important, and the Western option and the Geneva process must be the only one to resolve the Syrian crisis, and rallying around the experience east of the Euphrates is very important for the continuation of the revolution against the dictatorial regime, because the return of the regime’s control over this region will not remain for the real Syrian revolutionary forces. Another ground for continuity.
Positive Alignment or Beneficial Affinities:
Forces similar in nature are very close, and the points of difference between them may be simple and can be overcome through understandings, convergence and assimilation by all parties. Therefore, working to find a suitable ground and climate is necessary to build a Syrian body that is an alternative to the opposition represented by the Coalition and its sisters. Provided that the body is built of peaceful political and civil work.
As long as overcoming obstacles has become a title between the Syrian and Turkish regimes, the first for the Syrian opposition is to search for common ground that brings it together in one path, just as the Turkish and Syrian regimes entered into one path.
Restoring the Syrian decision:
The title may be big, but it is not impossible if there is a real will among those who believe in the Syrian revolution and its peaceful path.
With some Syrian parties marching under the banner of the opposition towards their death with the Turkish occupation, the real search for a new path for the Syrian opposition requires building a more capable and effective alternative grouping, and contact with the revolutionary local parties that did not fall under the category of Turkish-Iranian-Russian projects and the Syrian regime, in a more precise sense of the quadruple alliance. And the forces that pursue it under the banner of the revolutionary opposition require abandoning it, confronting it and exposing it to the Syrian public opinion, presenting an alternative project to it, and working to strengthen it in the Western track.
Therefore, in these circumstances, we find that strengthening organizational work, expanding the scope of work at home and abroad, and expanding relations with the Syrian opposition parties at home and abroad according to a system of beneficial rapprochement and positive alignment according to the mechanism of peaceful revolutionary civil and political movement and building relations with Western and Arab society on the basis of the existence of a real alternative to the opposition Dependent on some regional countries, these are valid strategic factors and the only way to continue dealing with the dramatic changes in Syria, and adjust accordingly to preserve the course of the revolution.
