Political analysis by Ibrahim Kaban
The Syrian opposition believes that this visit will have no resonance or impact in restoring the Syrian dictator to his position in the Chinese axis, but the nature of the Russian adoption of the Syrian regime, the tensions with the Arab League, the agreements with Turkey, and Iranian military and economic sponsorship, are sufficient to extend Assad’s life and give him more ability and opportunity to Staying on the path he is adopting to float his system.
The Syrian regime turned into a golden prey for Russian-Chinese companies looking for new areas and markets to take over, especially since Chinese companies under the authority of the state had begun working before the start of the Syrian revolution to invest in the capital, Damascus, and the Syrian regime’s media outlets at the time spoke about granting Chinese companies have the right to invest in the Adra labor areas and others, but the course of the war and the destruction caused by the Syrian civil war has put the country under the burden of allied companies, as the Syrian regime calls them. Perhaps China is closest to being the biggest winner in the post-war phase, which Russia is trying to prepare for. It has the gateway to rapprochements with the Arab countries, returning Bashar al-Assad to its league despite the continuing American obstacles represented by the Caesar Act and the military presence, and removing the Syrian wealth of oil, gas, wheat, and water dams from the dictator’s authority.
Chinese entry into the conflict will not be easy given the nature of the conflicts in Syria. Risking support for the crumbling regime in the face of the broad American presence (by cornering the Syrian regime into the corner of economic collapse) will create many American-Chinese disputes and cast a shadow over international policies. However, the Chinese strategies in dealing with these circumstances are completely different, considering that the Russian partner is present in the arena, the Chinese benefit is possible, as China was able to buy Russian oil, bypassing the sanctions imposed on Russia after the Ukraine crisis, and Beijing has a special method of avoiding problems and circumventing American sanctions. - Western, and this may happen in Syria as well.
The crumbling system and the search for a savior
Al-Assad did not succeed in convincing the Arab countries to move forward with his float despite his reception within the League, and this is because of Al-Assad’s inability to break away from the Iranian hegemony that has become nested within his military, economic and administrative institutions, and this contradicts the Arab interests that tried through a step-by-step policy to bring Al-Assad to the Arabs in exchange for keeping him one step away from Iran, and the regime realizes that keeping him away from Iran means turning him into a jeopardy for his downfall.
In contrast, Iranian interests in Syria are exposed to major shocks as a result of American threats to carry out a large-scale operation in the areas of Deir ez-Zor, where Iranian militias are based, in addition to the almost daily Israeli air attacks on Iranian points in Damascus and the rest of the regions, and Russian support has declined significantly in saving the regime economically after the outbreak of war. The Ukraine war and its transformation into a quagmire in which the Russians need any capabilities and capabilities to continue it in the face of the great support provided by European countries and the United States of America to the Ukrainian army, and thus the Syrian regime’s chances of convincing the Arabs or benefiting sustainably from the Russians and Iranians will not last, which is what the head of the Syrian regime is trying to search for alternatives. Possible outside the Russian-Iranian images. Since China has possible strategies for violating the sanctions, the Syrian regime is trying to provide the greatest amount of interests to Chinese companies in acquiring the remaining facilities or reconstruction operations in Syria in the future.
Continued Chinese expansion
In tracking Chinese economic movements, the Middle East receives prominent attention, and considering that the Syrian market will be important in the future, the Chinese will search for a foothold in the Syrian cake. Despite the weakness of the Syrian regime, it is still granted international legitimacy and two of the five countries that have the right to veto monetary policy. The Security Council supports it, and concluding any agreements with it becomes official and has an international nature, according to which the Chinese can attend and take over a key seat in the future of Syrian reconstruction, provided that the benefit is in the future and not only in these circumstances in which the regime’s areas and most of its responsible figures are witnessing American-European sanctions. .
The Turkish arm is economically disabled
Turkish goals in northern Syria may hinder the progress of agreements between the Turkish-Syrian regimes, and therefore there will be no direct benefit economically. The tense internal economic conditions Turkey suffers from and the nature of its ambitions in the northern regions cause the disruption of the economic partnership between the two parties, and stop within the limits of the implementation of security and military agreements. Under Russian-Iranian sponsorship, because the transition to the stage of economic cooperation requires appropriate conditions in light of Erdogan’s conditions for hegemony over the north and Assad’s demands to remove the Turkish army.
There is no doubt that Turkey helped a lot in eliminating the Syrian armed opposition, in addition to dismantling its political umbrellas. Rather, it had the greatest role in the process of reducing the armed groups and placing them within the circle of Turkmen militants who lead the scene in the areas of Turkish occupation. Turkey considers the Turkmen arm and loyalty to the Muslim Brotherhood. In Syria, it guarantees its dominance and permanent presence, and therefore the amount of complexity imposed on the scene makes it necessary for the Turkish party to put pressure on the Assad regime and force it to accept the Turkish conditions.
Turkey believes that Assad is completely worn out and in a situation where he can accept its conditions, which include maintaining military points while developing the Adana Agreement that was concluded between the two parties in 1998 and allowing entry into the northern Syrian regions for some kilometers to pursue what it calls separatist groups, and expanding it to a depth of 40 km, with the area being Under Turkish security guardianship, in addition to economic gains.
Oil and gas are not covered
Fossil wealth has always been an economic pressure card to destroy the Assad regime from the inside. The loss of its sources directly contributed to undermining its capabilities. Despite its recovery of vast areas, the economic factor was overwhelming to obstruct any real development in services and reform, as the severity of its suffering increased after the American-European presence. Militarily to help the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces control oil and gas, as well as the areas of the Jazira, which are considered the Syrian food basket. This means that grain, the management of water dams, and agricultural areas are now outside the regime’s economy, and any military achievement it achieves will not be translated into reality due to the loss of economic capabilities and capabilities.
The Syrian Democratic Forces have contributed to destroying the regime's economy and making it lose the ability to manage its regions, in light of the Syrian opposition's retreat into the regime's embrace through the Turkish gate after the agreements concluded with the Russians, Iranians, and the Syrian regime in Astana and Sochi.
