A political reading of Ibrahim Kaban
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan does not spend a media statement or meeting without his agenda being (preparing to launch new military operations against the Kurds in Syria). At the same time, he expands within the Kurdistan region of Iraq and increases his military and security presence in the areas adjacent to the border, and threatens to continue carrying out new military operations on The Autonomous Administration region in northern and eastern Syria.
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In the process of abandoning the Syrian opposition despite its use in various fields, the war against the Kurds, taking them to Libya, Azerbaijan, Burkina Faso and Niger, bringing them into the fray of Russian Wagner and its projects inside some African countries, distracting them with battles against the Syrian Democratic Forces in Syria, and disrupting any confrontations between opposition groups. Syria and the Syrian regime as a result of the agreements with Assad and the Iranians under Russian sponsorship.
The development of the agreements between the parties is on its way towards enabling them to unify the mercenary groups of the opposition with the Syrian regime forces, and enabling security and military cooperation with Assad, with the aim of empowering a Syrian-Turkish front to fight the Syrian Democratic Forces, which Turkey calls separatist, while the Syrian regime and its Iranian partner in the operation trust America. . While the United States of America is not moving towards strengthening political relations with the Autonomous Administration, no American tendencies appear on the horizon to support the Kurds in pursuing any projects of their own. However, American cooperation is still within the context of military and security cooperation with the Syrian Democratic Forces to fight ISIS elements.
The economic crisis and the escape forward
Turkey's wars against the Kurds have destroyed it economically in light of the current circumstances in the region as a whole and at the international level, as the policies followed by Erdogan have placed the Turkish countries in a dark tunnel after the rupture in Western and Arab relations, and the continued cooperation with the Russians on issues that threaten Western strategic security. Despite the persistent attempts to restore these relations with the West and the Arabs, the Turkish regime did not succeed in benefiting from them, and thus this caused the loss of the Justice and Development Party, headed by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and its ally, the Nationalist Movement. The Turkish opposition turned into a strong political bloc that controlled the joints of the municipalities, which He directly threatened the future of the Turkish president and his party.
It is clear that Erdogan will tend to create crises in the neighborhood and inside Turkey in order to reshuffle the cards again in order to remain competitive in the upcoming elections.
Manipulating the nationalist feelings of the Turks may be a good mechanism to push the street towards following Erdogan’s projects to wage conflicts and wars against the Kurds, because the Turkish regime is fully aware that the Turkish opposition cannot overcome the Justice and Development Party and its partner, the Nationalist Movement, without resorting to the Kurds and coordinating with them. This also happened in the recent municipal elections, which changed the Turkish equation, after the Kurdish parties adopted a strategy of winning within the Kurdish regions in exchange for supporting the opposition in the Turkish strategic regions. The result was control of most of the Kurdish municipalities in exchange for the opposition’s control of the Turkish municipalities, which caused a major loss for the Justice Party and its partner, the movement. Nationalism. Considering that the circumstances will not help Erdogan in the future, due to the economic situation, the failure of projects, and the decline in relations, the future will be for the opposition, and therefore the Kurdish party may be a partner of the next government led by the Republican People’s Party, which has a Kemalist orientation.
War is inevitably coming
The current focus of the Turkish President is on preparing for new military operations against the Kurds in Syria and the Kurdistan region, and the nature of the relations that he is building with the Assad regime, the Iranians, and the Iraqi government, in conjunction with strengthening relations with Russia, resolving any disputes with Europe and the Arab countries, and easing American pressures, all show These factors are one inevitable reality, which is fighting the Syrian Democratic Forces, intensifying the presence within the Kurdistan region, and trying to strike the Kurdish political parties against each other, in exchange for deepening intelligence work in the Kurdish regions of Syria and Iraq. Especially since the political developments in the United States of America suggest a major development at the strategic level, especially the return of the conservatives, and Donald Trump may succeed again in the presidential elections, which means a new administration and policies that may be based on adventures, and may also affect Turkey if the latter continues to deepen relations. With Russia. These geopolitical transformations coincide with a development in European politics, where right-wing movements are rapidly rising to seize control of governments according to the recent elections, which indicate the European right’s control over some countries, while its control of regions within other countries has developed, and this means that we are facing a development in international politics.
War is inevitably coming
The Turkish presence was not limited to playing the role of border police for American interests during the past six decades, but rather it contributed to protecting NATO’s eastern front. This role suffered a severe blow in light of the Turkish inclination in favor of the new Russian expansion in the Middle East, and this caused a profound loss of confidence with NATO. . Not only that, but relations expanded in coordination with the Russians in some African countries that witnessed coups against the American-European presence in favor of Russian expansion, in addition to the significant decline of Arab countries in building relations with Turkey, after the recent intervention to support extremist groups within a number of Arab countries. If the formal relations between these parties with the Turks return, they will not go beyond formality and interest, as is the case with European countries. Perhaps Turkey’s remaining on the path of rapprochements with Russia and China will further reinforce the loss of sustainable confidence in them, and may ultimately result in a divorce between them and the Western countries, if they remain. Erdogan is at the helm of power.
07/10/2024
