Special/Geostrategic Studies Team
It is certain that the decrease in the sale of oil due to the destruction of infrastructure will cause the destruction of the economic cycle in the Autonomous Administration region in northern and eastern Syria, and this necessarily means that the region is headed for more bad economic conditions and more migration.
During the past months, the Turkish air attacks on the Autonomous Administration region did not stop, and this caused the destruction of large economic facilities that the administration relied on to develop its economy, especially the oil and gas sector, which constitute the strategic weight in the administration’s economy and contribute directly to economic development and ensuring good living compared to Areas controlled by the Syrian regime and enclaves controlled by the Turkish state, which appears to be leading military and political groups for the Syrian opposition.
The three elements of the economy in the Autonomous Administration region
In managing economic affairs, the Autonomous Administration relies on three basic sources, the greatest of which is oil, which is sold in the internal market as well as to other regions (the regime and the Turkish occupation), approximately one hundred thousand barrels per day, in addition to gas and agriculture, where the Autonomous Administration takes over the previously recognized area (basket). Syrian food).
The three factors really contributed to neutralizing the Autonomous Administration region from the economic catastrophe that the regime and opposition areas affiliated with Turkey are suffering from. However, the Turkish occupation attacks, using drones and organized air operations, caused the destruction of the infrastructure and took many facilities and investments out of the development race, in addition to using the stick of threats and intimidation and pushing the people of the border areas to migrate and empty the area.
Why exclusively the Kurdish region?
Most of the Kurdish cities and countryside in Syria are located on the border with Turkey at a depth ranging between 50-100 km. Considering that this area, especially within 40 km, is under fire from the Turkish air war through drones, the destruction of infrastructure, along with pushing civilians to empty the area, has become a Turkish strategy. Clearly, to eliminate the Kurdish component in northern Syria.
The Turkish occupation has been implementing the policy of emptying the Kurdish region since 2018 after the occupation of Afrin canton, up to the occupation of the areas of Ras al-Ayn/Serê Kaniyê and Tal Abyad/Girê Spi, during 2019, and it announced preparations for several other operations that were met with American-Russian rejection, while allowing it to conduct bombing operations. Aerial operations with drones, as part of pleasing the Turks in exchange for stopping ground operations for the time being.
Strategy to strike the Autonomous Administration area from within
Turkish movements
1- It focuses on continuous aerial bombardment and spreading fear along the border region through barbaric attacks, to push Kurdish civilians to leave their villages and cities until the region is turned into an open battlefield, in order to distance Kurdish development in Syria from the borders with Kurdish cities and countryside in Turkey.
2- Direct coordination with the Syrian regime on security issues, so that the Syrian regime provides important information to the Turkish party about the Syrian Democratic Forces and the locations of prominent figures, etc. In exchange for giving the Turkish side everything the Syrian regime requests regarding the armed groups of the Syrian opposition in the occupied areas, in addition to the Syrian regime employing the leaders of the mercenary groups of the National Army.
The function of the Syrian regime and its tools
1- Increasing tribal tensions among the Arab tribes and pushing them towards a clash with the Syrian Democratic Forces through the Iranian support and training members of the tribes, arming them and giving them free rein in Deir ez-Zor, as is currently happening with the Ibrahim al-Hafel group, which receives support, training and arming from the Syrian regime and Iranian militias in Deir ez-Zor. .
2- Intelligence cooperation with the Turkish regime by providing it with information about sensitive figures, places, military bases, and economic facilities.
3- Developing Baathist elements and sleeper cells in the Autonomous Administration area, whether within the administration institutions or preparing them for ground zero.
Disastrous results
What is happening on the ground currently is the main part of the Astana agreements between the three regimes (Syrian - Turkish - Iranian) and under Russian sponsorship. Certainly, these regimes have formed a joint military and security operations room to manage the war against the Syrian Democratic Forces and its ally, the United States of America, because the American presence and its forces The alliance in Syria is a real concern for these regimes, and therefore the Russians share this with them. The result is the dispersal of the population from the Kurdish region, the destruction of the economy in the Autonomous Administration region, the creation of discord between the Arab tribes and the Syrian Democratic Forces, the formation of a cell in the Autonomous Administration region to lead assassination operations and transfer information to the Asitana security and military operations room.
