The acceleration of events in the Middle East suggests dramatic developments, and affects the Syrian scene in terms of military movements and new positions, and through this anticipation of events, we convey to readers our perceptions and expectations through a strategic analysis of developments in Syria.
(1)
The trilogy of interests and expected agreements:
The size of the obstacles facing the Syrian regime in advancing towards military confrontations with the Syrian Democratic Forces is very large, and we believe that it is not possible at the present time, due to the American-European presence that completely prevents this and leaves the regime with the path of dialogue according to an international methodology from the American gate, as long as the Iranian presence in Syria is part of the regime's military force, the international coalition provides the continuity of the presence of eastern Syria and reduces the expansion of Iranian interests inside Syria.
In the same context, Russia cannot carry out military operations against the Syrian Democratic Forces because the areas of these forces are part of the American-European presence, and it is not in Russia's interest to do so as long as it has relations with the Syrian Democratic Forces that extend their control over the Syrian economic areas, in light of the possibility of greater understandings during the next stage.
While Turkey proposes in any agreements with the Syrian regime the idea of uniting all forces "the Turkish military presence in Syria, the armed opposition groups, the Syrian regime forces and their affiliated groups from Iran, Iraq and Lebanon" to fight the Syrian Democratic Forces. This approach shows us its inability to lead a new military operation against the Syrian Democratic Forces, and that its move to normalize relations with the Syrian regime is intended to exert pressure on the international coalition, in addition to legitimizing its movements against the Kurds of Syria, based on understandings with the Syrian regime. This dilemma can only be resolved through the following strategy: The Syrian regime's move to reach an agreement with the Turks under Russian sponsorship is a completely settled matter, in exchange for not clashing with the Syrian Democratic Forces, and holding a dialogue with them for the purpose of agreeing to deploy regime forces on the border, thus partially ending Turkish border concerns "as it claims", and the guarantor here is the Russian side, in light of the American refusal to hold any dialogue and agreement between the Autonomous Administration and the Syrian regime.
( 2 )
The upcoming Russian strategy
Russia will increase its presence in the areas of the Autonomous Administration "bordering Turkey" and begin building points under the banner of "national reconciliation" that will be located in: (Kobani - Ain al-Issa - Tal Tamr - Darbasiyah - Manbij - al-Shahba areas), which is a new strategy that is in line with the upcoming agreements between the "Syrian-Turkish" regimes to deal with the Syrian Democratic Forces, and with the aim of keeping them away from the points of contact with the Turkish border, and since the Syrian regime cannot deploy its forces alone along the border, the idea of a Russian presence in this area may facilitate the process of this deployment in the future, in addition to the Russians presenting their presence as an alternative to the American presence in the event of the withdrawal of American forces or any other emergency development that the Autonomous Administration region is exposed to. Considering that there is an understanding basically between Russia and the Syrian Democratic Forces in the western areas of the Autonomous Administration region, the Russian side is trying to provide guarantees through this move in order to pass the agreements between Assad and Erdogan. According to the scene, the Russians have a new strategy to deal with the Syrian developments through the gateway of the autonomous region, and to push the Syrian regime to open up to recognizing the Kurdish status culturally "at least", and if the United States chooses to withdraw, then merging the two forces "the regime forces - and the Syrian Democratic Forces" is possible in light of what will result from the American withdrawal.
These steps may be slow due to the incomplete trust between the Russians and the Syrian Democratic Forces, and the Kurdish-led autonomous administration recalls the reasons that led to the occupation of Afrin by the Turkish army and armed opposition groups, after the agreements concluded between the Russians and the Turks. The Russian side is also fully aware that the Syrian Democratic Forces will not go with it to any understandings without building trust between the two parties, which the Russians will try to establish in the coming periods by conducting dialogues between the Kurds and the Syrian regime.
This equation may change if the United States and its allies adopt a mechanism to stay and continue in Syria, and impose the autonomous administration represented by the Syrian Democratic Forces on Damascus and any upcoming dialogues.
( 3 )
Increase in US presence
There are many reasons that may prompt the US Department of Defense to increase the number of its forces inside the autonomous region in northeastern Syria, in addition to expanding the circle of military bases and supplying them with heavy weapons, for purposes related to protecting American soldiers and bases and the international coalition in Syria from any emotional attacks by an Iranian militia present in locations close to them "Deir Ezzor - Iraq", in addition to potential threats from Iran and its arms in Iraq and Syria to launch attacks on Israel. Therefore, the need to increase the presence and military operations has become a necessity for American forces and the international coalition in general.
( 4 )
The path of understandings between the Turkish and Syrian regimes
The Syrian regime's view of the internal Turkish scene is accurate, to the point that Bashar al-Assad is fully aware of the goals of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan behind the persistent attempts to strike a deal with him. Because this saves the Turkish regime internally after the Justice and Development Party lost its popular majority, and the opposition rose to levels of exerting pressure on Erdogan's internal and external policies, and may overthrow him in the coming period. Meanwhile, the Turkish opposition is the closest to the Syrian regime due to sectarian ties in addition to the opposition's positions supporting the Syrian regime since the beginning of the events in Syria. Therefore, the Syrian regime is trying to buy more time to weaken Erdogan internally, and impose new points until the Turkish regime is ready to make concessions in favor of Assad.
Because Erdogan needs this agreement, we expect understandings between the two regimes at the leadership level in the coming period, and preparations for a presidential conference as a result of implementing the agreements on the ground. The Syrian regime will be the biggest winner from these rapprochements.
( 5 )
The Return of ISIS
It is clear that there are new movements of ISIS in the Syrian Badia, where this terrorist organization is using the Syrian Badia as headquarters to carry out its attacks on the Syrian Democratic Forces and the Syrian regime forces. Meanwhile, the ISIS den in the southern countryside of Deir Ezzor is run by Iranian militias that have made deals, according to some reports, between dissident groups from Arab tribes in the Autonomous Administration region led by the so-called Ibrahim al-Hafl, supported by the Baqir Brigade managed by the Iranian militias in Deir Ezzor and its leader Nawaf al-Bashir, where they in turn made agreements with ISIS cells in Deir Ezzor and under the auspices of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Syrian intelligence in order to carry out attacks on the Syrian Democratic Forces.
We expect an exchange of roles between the Syrian tribal groups affiliated with the Iranian militias and ISIS elements in carrying out operations against the Syrian Democratic Forces, and we will witness an increase in the level of operations against the Autonomous Administration region carried out by the two groups "ISIS - Syrian tribal groups" with Iranian support and Syrian intelligence against the Syrian Democratic Forces. According to the strategy of presenting ISIS to carry out operations and then to relieve pressure on the Iranian militias and the regime, tribal groups are presented, while the possibility of calming the situation in favor of consecrating the dormant cell at times, so that the Syrian regime will rely through these dissident tribal groups to enable the dormant cell in the region of the self-administration during the coming period, and the areas expected to build this cell: "The eastern and western countryside of Raqqa, reaching the Euphrates River to Baghouz in the east, and the areas north of Deir Ezzor to the south of Hasakah" Al-Arish, Markada, Al-Hawl, Al-Sour, Al-Shaddadi and its countryside."
- Geostrategic Studies Team / "Future Foresight" Department
August 15, 2024
