A political reading of Ibrahim Kaban
The possibility of dialogue between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkey is a complex issue within the Syrian and regional political landscape. Several historical and geopolitical factors, along with conflicting regional and international interests, make negotiations between the two sides appear extremely difficult. However, the idea of dialogue cannot be entirely dismissed, given the changing political dynamics in the region and the shared challenges that could push conflicting parties to the negotiating table.
Factors Hindering Dialogue
1. Turkey’s Concerns about the Kurdish Project
One of the main obstacles to dialogue between the SDF and Turkey is Turkey’s firm stance against any form of Kurdish autonomy in Syria. Turkey views the Syrian Democratic Forces as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which it classifies as a terrorist organization. Therefore, Turkey perceives the project of self-administration in northeastern Syria as a threat to its national security, especially considering the large Kurdish minority within Turkey, which also seeks to achieve national demands.
2. International Alliances
The SDF enjoys support from the United States, further complicating the situation for Turkey, which is a NATO ally of the United States. While the U.S. has heavily supported the SDF in the fight against ISIS, this support has become a significant point of tension between Washington and Ankara. Even though Turkey seeks to maintain its strategic relations with the U.S., it views Washington’s support for the SDF as a betrayal of its security interests.
3. Local and Regional Tensions
The conflict in Syria is not merely an internal one; it involves broad regional and international interventions. Turkey views the presence of the SDF as a direct threat to its interests in northern Syria, as Ankara aims to control these areas to prevent the establishment of a Kurdish entity along its southern border. On the other hand, the SDF is trying to maintain the gains it has made on the ground thanks to the support of the U.S.-led coalition.
Factors That Could Open the Door for Dialogue
1. Changes in International Politics
International changes could impose themselves on both parties and open a window for dialogue. For instance, Turkey's relations with the U.S. could improve or be influenced by internal or regional developments, which might push Washington to pressure Turkey into finding a formula for understanding with the SDF. On the other hand, Turkey could find itself in a position that forces it to reconsider its policies toward the Kurds in Syria if it faces internal challenges or international pressures.
2. Shared Security Challenges
Despite the differences, there are shared security threats that might push the two sides to cooperate. ISIS still poses a real threat in Syria and the region, and other terrorist organizations might exploit the security vacuum if the conflict between Turkey and the SDF escalates. In this regard, a mutual interest in addressing these threats may emerge, paving the way for at least security understandings, if not a full political dialogue.
3. International Mediation
International mediation could play a role in bringing the SDF and Turkey closer to dialogue. Countries like Russia may find an interest in de-escalating tensions between the two parties, as Moscow seeks to balance interests in Syria. Additionally, some European countries could act as intermediaries, especially those concerned about the potential influx of more refugees if the conflict intensifies.
Future Scenarios
1. Escalation of Conflict: This scenario involves continued military operations between Turkey and the SDF, especially with the ongoing tensions along the Turkish-Syrian border. Turkish attacks on areas controlled by the SDF could increase, exacerbating civilian suffering and complicating the security situation.
2. Temporary Truce: Under international pressure or due to political changes within Turkey or the United States, the conflict may witness a temporary truce, especially if military priorities give way to political understandings.
3. Indirect Dialogue: The two sides might engage in indirect talks under international sponsorship or through local intermediaries to reach understandings on specific issues, such as security arrangements or border crossings.
Conclusion
While dialogue between the Syrian Democratic Forces and Turkey is not impossible, it is highly complex and requires significant changes on political and regional levels. Security tensions and national concerns remain the primary obstacles to this dialogue. However, international changes and external pressures may contribute to creating an environment that allows at least indirect talks to begin, particularly if new shared challenges or interests emerge.
