Geostrategic experts analyze
In-Depth Analysis: If Trump Wins the U.S. Presidency, What Would His Policies Look Like on Syria, the Middle East, and the Turkish-Kurdish Conflict in Syria?
If Donald Trump were to win the U.S. presidency again, it is likely that American policies toward the Middle East, especially Syria, would change significantly, given his previous administration's approach and general political leanings. Here is an in-depth analysis of how his policies might shape the region:
Trump’s Potential Approach to Syria:
Gradual Withdrawal and Less Direct Intervention: Trump has previously advocated for reducing direct U.S. involvement in Syria and pursued a gradual withdrawal of American forces from northern Syria. If re-elected, he would likely continue this approach, focusing on direct national security interests, such as combating major terrorist threats, rather than becoming entangled in local conflicts.
Pressure on Iran and Limiting Its Influence in Syria: Given his staunch opposition to Iran, Trump might intensify diplomatic and economic pressures on Damascus to curb Iranian influence. He could introduce further sanctions on the Syrian regime to weaken Iran's reach in Syria, as he considers Iran a major adversary and may aim to isolate it by reducing its foothold there.
Economic Measures and Sanctions: Trump is expected to rely heavily on economic sanctions as a tool to pressure the Assad regime and its supporters, instead of military engagement. This might include reactivating economic sanctions like the "Caesar Act," which aims to cripple Syria's economy as a means of political leverage.
U.S. Relations with Turkey and the Kurds:
Cooperation with Turkey Despite Differences: During his first term, Trump showed a willingness to cooperate with Turkey despite its disagreements with the U.S.-backed Kurdish forces. He may continue with this policy, seeking to avoid escalating tensions with Ankara, which he views as a strategic partner.
Partial Reduction of Support for the Kurds: Trump’s approach to the Kurds is likely to remain pragmatic and interest-driven rather than committed. He could lean toward reducing U.S. support for the Kurds in Syria if such a move would help prevent conflict with Turkey or benefit his "America First" agenda.
Arranging Conditions to Contain the Turkish-Kurdish Conflict: Trump might again attempt a mediator role, with a greater emphasis on meeting Turkey’s interests, seeing Turkey as the more critical ally for regional stability over the Kurdish forces, who may not be seen as essential to his broader Middle East strategy.
3. "Deal-Making" Approach in the Middle East:
Support for Arab-Israeli Normalization: Trump would likely continue to support normalization initiatives between Arab states and Israel, including encouraging Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords, which he initiated during his first term. This strategy would reinforce Israel’s role as a major regional player, further marginalizing the Palestinian issue.
Strengthening Alliances Against Iranian Influence: Trump is expected to bolster U.S. ties with Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to form a solid front against Iran and to ensure stability in the global oil market aligned with American economic interests.
Withdrawal from Non-Essential Conflicts and Limited Intervention:
Reducing Direct U.S. Military Involvement: Trump was committed in his first term to "ending endless wars," and he might continue this approach by reducing the American military presence in Syria and other areas. He could push for political solutions over military confrontation.
Pressure Policy Without Direct Military Involvement: Trump’s Middle East policy would likely focus on economic and diplomatic pressure against America’s adversaries without direct military engagement, especially given his usual preference to prioritize American resources domestically.
Summary:
If Trump returns to the presidency, we could expect a more restrained American role in Syria, relying on non-military tools like sanctions and economic pressure, particularly against Iran and the Syrian regime. He would likely seek to maintain strong relations with Turkey, even if that comes at the expense of the Kurds, while focusing on economic and diplomatic arrangements that serve U.S. interests without involving the U.S. in the complexities of Middle Eastern conflicts.
