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Geostrategic experts analyze
Turkey has been facing the Kurdish insurgency led by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) for decades. This conflict has strained the Turkish state economically and militarily, and has also affected its foreign relations, particularly with Western countries critical of its human rights record. The Turkish government is seeking to leverage all available tools to achieve internal stability and reduce terrorist threats emanating from Kurdish areas both inside Turkey and in neighboring regions, such as northern Syria and Iraq.
Turkey’s Strategic Objectives:
1. Reducing Security Threats from the PKK: Turkey aims to diminish PKK activities within its borders. Using a figure like Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the PKK, to initiate dialogue with the party could represent an opportunity to resolve the conflict. Öcalan holds significant symbolic and political influence over the Kurdish movement, which could make him a key mediator in persuading the PKK to leave Turkish soil.
2. Expanding Influence in Northern Syria: Turkey's primary goal is to establish a pro-Turkish region in northern and eastern Syria (the Autonomous Administration). This region, currently led by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), is an indirect ally of the United States, but Turkey wants to shift it to its sphere of influence, similar to the Iraqi Kurdistan Region. Success in this would allow Turkey to create a “buffer zone,” helping to secure its borders from any Kurdish threats and reducing the PKK’s influence in those areas.
3. Long-term Military Presence: Turkey seeks to establish a permanent military presence in northern and eastern Syria, similar to its bases in Iraqi Kurdistan. This would provide Turkey with greater flexibility in dealing with potential security threats in the region and would further strengthen its regional influence.
4. Economic Exploitation: Turkey aims to economically exploit the resources of the Autonomous Administration region through Turkish companies, thereby bolstering its economy and creating new commercial opportunities. This area is rich in natural resources, and Turkey is likely interested in exploiting these resources through economic and trade agreements, which would increase the region’s economic dependency on Turkey.
Analysis of Benefits and Risks:
1. Potential Benefits:
Internal Stability: Reaching an agreement with the PKK through Abdullah Öcalan could reduce armed attacks within Turkey and bring internal stability, allowing the Turkish government to focus on other priorities.
Increased Regional Influence: If Turkey manages to build strong relations with the Autonomous Administration in northern Syria, it will achieve a significant geopolitical expansion, bolstering its position as a key player in the Middle East. Establishing military bases would also provide Turkey with a strategic advantage in monitoring developments in the region and preventing future Kurdish threats.
Economic Relations: Opening the door for Turkish companies to invest in the Autonomous Administration region would strengthen economic ties and secure Turkey’s economic interests in the area, including access to energy and mineral resources.
Potential Risks:
PKK Rejection: The PKK may reject any settlement with Turkey, especially if its leadership views dialogue with Öcalan as a betrayal of their objectives. In this case, tensions could escalate again, leading to increased armed attacks within Turkey.
Domestic Opposition: Turkey could face strong domestic opposition from Turkish nationalists or parties that view any dialogue with the PKK as a concession of national sovereignty.
International Turmoil: Turkey might face international criticism, particularly from the United States or European Union, if it attempts to expand its influence in northern Syria without clear international approval. This could complicate Turkey’s relations with its Western allies, especially if there is any Turkish military intervention in the region.
Russian and Iranian Roles: Turkey may clash with Russian and Iranian interests in Syria, as both countries seek to maintain their influence in the region. This could lead to diplomatic tensions or even indirect military confrontations.
Conclusions and Recommendations:
If Turkey succeeds in convincing the PKK to relocate from Turkish territory to northern Syria, it could achieve significant gains in terms of internal security and regional influence. However, the success of this plan depends on Turkey’s ability to carefully manage international and regional balances, avoiding clashes with Western or Russian interests in the area.
Turkey should proceed cautiously in securing understandings with major powers active in Syria (the U.S. and Russia) to ensure international approval for any political or military arrangements in the Autonomous Administration region.
It should also negotiate with the Kurdish leadership in Syria to ensure a balanced partnership that fosters stability and ensures the loyalty of the region without triggering major tensions with the local population or international actors.
Ultimately, the success of this plan hinges on Turkey’s ability to convince all parties that the proposed changes will serve mutual interests and enhance regional stability.
