.png)
After Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) gained control over Aleppo, this development raised strategic questions about the group's future moves in other Syrian regions, particularly in Hama, Homs, and Damascus, as well as the possibility of clashes with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and its broader role in the Syrian conflict. To understand the dimensions of these movements, it is crucial to analyze the actors on the ground, regional and international agendas, and the strategies of the regime and opposition forces.
Will HTS continue its expansion into other Syrian regions?
HTS’s control of Aleppo represents a significant shift in the balance of power, strengthening its position as the most dominant opposition military force on the ground. It is likely that HTS will attempt to expand its influence further in Hama and Homs, as this aligns with its strategy to position itself as an alternative to the regime in the north and central areas. However, HTS's success depends on several factors:
Its military capacity: HTS enjoys relatively organized military strength compared to other factions.
Regional and international dynamics: The group may face pressure from regional and international actors to limit its expansion.
Local public resistance: HTS’s dominance could provoke backlash from local populations or rival factions.
The likelihood of confrontation with the Syrian Democratic Forces
HTS advancing toward areas controlled by the SDF is plausible, especially given their differing visions. However, the likelihood of a wide-scale confrontation depends on several factors:
International support for the SDF: The U.S.-led coalition strongly backs the SDF, making any confrontation risky for HTS.
HTS’s military priorities: The group seems more focused on targeting regime-held areas than engaging with the SDF.
Local alliances: HTS might seek limited understandings with certain Kurdish or local forces to avoid resource-draining conflicts.
Who is behind HTS's movements and al-Joulani's strategy?
The actions of HTS, led by Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, suggest a strategy that goes beyond local considerations. Several actors may have a hand in shaping its moves:
Turkey: It could leverage HTS to achieve tactical goals, such as pressuring the regime or enhancing its influence in northern Syria.
Qatar: There may be media and political support to rebrand HTS in some regional circles.
International actors: Certain powers might see HTS's moves as a means to weaken the regime or delay a political settlement.
Is there regional or international support for al-Joulani's push to take Aleppo?
HTS’s rise in Aleppo may be part of a regional strategy to reshape the balance of power in the Syrian conflict. Turkey is likely the primary covert supporter of HTS’s moves, especially as it seeks to secure its interests in northern Syria. Western powers might turn a blind eye to these movements as long as they undermine the regime or its allies.
Will HTS reach Damascus?
Reaching Damascus seems unlikely for now, given:
HTS’s ability to sustain expansion: The group would need substantial military and strategic resources to move toward the capital.
The regime’s defenses: Despite its overall weakness, the regime prioritizes defending Damascus as a symbol of its sovereignty.
Russian and Iranian support: The regime’s powerful allies are unlikely to allow Damascus to fall.
Can the Syrian regime repel HTS offensives?
The Syrian regime suffers from a general depletion of military and human resources but heavily relies on Russian and Iranian support. Russia might intensify its airstrikes to back the regime, while Iran could mobilize its regional militias to defend vital areas like Homs and Damascus.
Will the opposition in Daraa move against the regime in tandem with HTS’s Hama campaign?
Southern Syria, particularly Daraa, remains a vulnerability for the regime, where some opposition factions could act. However, this depends on:
Coordination among factions: The lack of coordination could undermine the effectiveness of such moves.
Regional support: Jordan and certain Gulf states might seek to exploit the situation if they perceive an opportunity to weaken the regime.
Conclusion: An Uncertain Future and Open-Ended Scenarios
HTS’s movements under al-Joulani demonstrate its ambitions for expansion, but the path is fraught with military and political challenges. Regional and international powers play a hidden role in shaping Syria’s evolving dynamics, making it difficult to predict the exact course of events. Nonetheless, the Syrian conflict remains complex and multi-faceted, with each step impacting the fragile balance of power in the country.
- Geostrategic Studies Team / "Future Foresight" Department
