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Report prepared by: Geostrategic Studies Team
The Arab states are confronting a multifaceted challenge with the rise of Ahmed al-Sharaa as Syria's new leader, especially given his controversial background and previous affiliations with extremist groups. Born on October 29, 1982, in Riyadh to a Syrian family from the Golan Heights, al-Sharaa, also known by his nom de guerre "Abu Mohammed al-Jolani," has a complex history. He joined al-Qaeda in Iraq following the 2003 U.S. invasion, emerging as a military commander responsible for operations in Nineveh province. In 2011, he played a pivotal role in establishing Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda's Syrian branch, which later evolved into Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
In December 2024, al-Sharaa led intensive military campaigns that culminated in the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's regime and the formation of a transitional government on December 10. He was officially appointed as the head of the transitional phase on January 29, 2025, during which the 2012 constitution was annulled, the Ba'ath Party dissolved, and the previous parliament and security apparatus disbanded. This rapid shift in Syria's leadership has raised concerns among Arab nations, considering al-Sharaa's history and former ties to extremist organizations, prompting questions about regional stability and security.
These developments necessitate that Arab countries reassess their policies and strategies toward Syria, balancing the need to support regional stability with addressing potential threats posed by the new leadership. The international community is also closely monitoring these changes, given their potential impact on the political and security dynamics in the Middle East.
Ahmad al-Sharaa’s Background and Arab Perceptions
Ahmad al-Sharaa was born in 1982 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and later moved with his family to Syria. He gained prominence as the leader of Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda, before breaking away and forming Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This history raises questions about whether Arab nations will accept his leadership, especially given that many of them classify HTS as a terrorist organization.
Arab Expectations for the Syrian Regime and Sectarian Considerations
Arab states generally seek a stable and united Syria that ensures regional security. A preferable government would be one that includes representation from various ethnic and religious groups. Given that Ahmad al-Sharaa and HTS are Sunni, some Arab states with significant Shiite populations or religious minorities may be wary of his leadership. However, in recent statements, al-Sharaa has emphasized his desire to build positive relations with Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, highlighting the need for cooperation to stabilize Syria and the region.
Diverging Arab Views on Syria’s New Leadership
The views of Arab countries regarding the new Syrian leadership have varied significantly, reflecting the different political, economic, and security interests of each nation. While countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar aim to enhance their influence in Syria by offering political, economic, and even reconstruction support, other nations, such as Egypt and the UAE, have shown more caution due to concerns about the Islamic background of the new Syrian leadership.
This divergence in positions can be attributed to the geopolitical shifts in the region in recent years. For example, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are seeking to stabilize Syria in a manner that aligns with their regional interests, particularly in countering the growing Iranian influence in Syria. Supporting the new Syrian leadership could be seen as a way to strengthen Sunni Arab influence in the face of Iranian dominance, which is largely led by Shiite forces.
On the other hand, Egypt and the UAE adopt a more cautious stance due to concerns over the political and religious legitimacy of the Syrian leadership, as well as fears of a resurgence of extremism if this regime were fully supported. For these countries, maintaining regional balance remains a delicate matter, as they seek to preserve stable relations with the West while avoiding clear alignment with any of the competing regional factions.
Additionally, this variance in positions is intertwined with the economic challenges faced by many Arab countries. Egypt and the UAE, for instance, may be more focused on economic development and joint projects with other countries in the region, which could lead them to be more reserved in their approach to the Syrian issue.
In conclusion, the differing perspectives on Syria's new leadership reflect the complex web of political, security, and economic considerations that each Arab nation must navigate.
Can Al-Sharaa’s Government Meet Arab Geopolitical Demands?
The Syrian government under al-Sharaa understands the importance of working with Arab states to secure political and financial support. To this end, he has engaged in diplomatic visits, including one to Saudi Arabia, where he met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Discussions focused on stabilizing Syria and strengthening economic ties. However, a major challenge remains in ensuring that Syria does not become a breeding ground for extremism again.
Arab-Syrian Relations After the Decline of Iranian Influence and the Turkish Factor
With Iran's influence in Syria diminishing following the fall of Assad’s regime, Arab states are seeking to fill the power vacuum while preventing Turkish expansion. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have been providing humanitarian and economic aid to Syria to promote stability and counterbalance Turkish influence. Meanwhile, the new Syrian government is trying to maintain a balanced relationship with both Turkey and Arab countries to secure its national interests.
Conclusion
The Arab world faces a delicate dilemma in dealing with Syria’s new leadership under Ahmad al-Sharaa. The situation requires a cautious approach that takes into account his past affiliations, sectarian balances, and geopolitical challenges. The future will depend on the ability of Syria’s new government to build trust with Arab states and meet the Syrian people’s aspirations for stability and prosperity.
