Report prepared by: Geostrategic Studies Team
The Syrian conflict has witnessed dramatic shifts over the past decade, with opposition factions rising and falling, shaped by both internal dynamics and external interventions. Among these factions, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, has emerged as a dominant force in northern Syria, attempting to rebrand itself from a jihadist movement into a pragmatic, governance-oriented entity.
However, recent events—particularly in Syria’s coastal region—have exposed the true nature of the "new regime" in Damascus, revealing its violent sectarian tendencies. The mass killings and purges targeting the Alawite community indicate that the sectarian violence long attributed to the Assad regime is now being replicated by its supposed opposition. This raises a critical question: could the same pattern of violence extend to other communities, such as the Druze and Kurds, if conditions allow?
Al-Jolani’s Transformation: From Jihadist to De Facto Ruler
For much of Syria’s war, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani remained a shadowy figure, initially gaining prominence as the leader of Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch. As geopolitical realities shifted, however, he distanced himself from al-Qaeda, seeking to reposition HTS as a legitimate force rather than an internationally designated terrorist group.
This shift was less of an ideological evolution and more of a strategic maneuver—an attempt to survive and consolidate power. But the recent atrocities in the coastal region have shattered this illusion of moderation, exposing the sectarian and violent core of HTS’s ideology. Instead of transitioning into a conventional military force, the group has adopted tactics strikingly similar to the Assad regime’s brutal counterinsurgency methods—only this time, the targets are different.
The Syrian Coast: A Test for HTS’s "Moderation"
The massacres committed against Alawites in the Latakia countryside serve as a stark reminder that HTS’s "moderate" image is a façade. The group has long tried to present itself as a disciplined military force rather than a sectarian militia, yet its recent actions suggest otherwise.
HTS’s violence in the coastal region is not merely reactionary, but rather a deliberate policy of sectarian retribution. This mirrors the Assad regime’s long-standing tactics of demographic engineering—using forced displacement and mass killings to reshape Syria’s social fabric. The coastal operations indicate that any future order imposed by HTS would be as authoritarian and exclusionary as the one it seeks to replace.
Potential Escalation Against the Druze and Kurds?
The sectarianism displayed in the coastal offensives raises concerns about the future of other minority groups in Syria, particularly the Druze and the Kurds.
Druze: The Druze community in southern Syria, particularly in Suwayda, has remained relatively independent throughout the conflict. However, if HTS expands its operations, it may view the Druze as another obstacle to its vision of governance, leading to further clashes.
Kurds: Relations between HTS and Kurdish factions have been tense, but not yet fully militarized. If HTS gains further ground, a direct conflict with Kurdish forces in northern Syria—potentially encouraged by Turkey—could become inevitable.
Syria at a Crossroads: What Comes Next?
The events in Syria’s coastal region have reshaped the country’s trajectory, revealing that Syria is still far from achieving stability. If the "new regime" emerging from opposition ranks relies on the same exclusionary, violent tactics as Assad, then it merely represents a change in leadership rather than a transformation in governance.
There are three possible scenarios for Syria’s future:
1. Continued Chaos: The country remains a battleground for regional and international powers, preventing any meaningful political resolution.
2. HTS as a Dominant Force: Al-Jolani’s faction becomes a primary governing entity in opposition areas, though it faces widespread rejection.
3. De Facto Partition: Syria remains divided between regime-held, opposition-controlled, and Kurdish-administered regions, with no unified government.
Conclusion: Has the "Moderate" Mask Fallen?
The recent coastal offensives have provided a clear answer to whether HTS is truly moderate—it is not. The sectarian cleansing, assassinations, and military tactics mirror those of the Assad regime, proving that Syria’s cycle of violence is being perpetuated rather than dismantled.
With the country stuck between Assad’s iron grip and the brutality of radical factions like HTS, any hopes for a peaceful and inclusive Syria remain distant.
