Report prepared by: Geostrategic Studies Team
The debate over Turkey’s accession to the European Union (EU) has persisted for decades, hindered by political, economic, and legal obstacles. In its latest development, the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, through a report drafted by Turkey rapporteur Nacho Sánchez Amor, concluded that the accession process cannot move forward due to ongoing democratic backsliding and systematic human rights violations. While this stance is not new, it underscores the EU’s continued concerns regarding Turkey’s policies, which conflict with the core values of the bloc.
Historical Context of EU-Turkey Relations
Turkey’s relationship with the EU dates back several decades. It first applied for membership in 1987 and was officially recognized as a candidate country at the Helsinki Summit in 1999. Accession negotiations began in 2005 but quickly stalled due to fundamental issues related to the rule of law, human rights, and political freedoms. Following the failed coup attempt in 2016, Turkey witnessed a wave of mass arrests, media restrictions, and judiciary weakening, further straining its ties with the EU.
Key Issues Blocking Turkey’s EU Membership
The European Parliament’s report is based on several criteria deemed essential for EU membership. The most critical concerns include:
1. Democratic Backsliding
The report highlights Turkey’s shift towards a more authoritarian governance model, particularly after the 2017 constitutional amendments that expanded President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s powers at the expense of parliamentary and judicial independence. Political opposition has faced increasing pressure, with party bans, arrests of politicians and journalists, and an overall decline in democratic standards.
2. Human Rights Violations
The EU has repeatedly voiced concerns over Turkey’s deteriorating human rights situation, particularly after the post-2016 state of emergency. These violations include the systematic suppression of dissent, restrictions on freedom of expression, and crackdowns on civil society and human rights organizations.
3. Lack of Judicial Independence
The report emphasizes that Turkey’s judiciary is no longer independent due to persistent political interference. This is reflected in politically motivated trials and the imprisonment of opposition figures on dubious charges. Additionally, Turkey has ignored rulings from the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), including calls for the release of high-profile detainees such as Osman Kavala and Selahattin Demirtaş, raising serious concerns about the rule of law.
4. Turkey’s Foreign Policy
Beyond internal issues, Turkey’s foreign policy plays a significant role in blocking its accession. Disputes with Greece and Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean, as well as Turkey’s military interventions in Syria and Libya, have raised concerns about its alignment with EU foreign policy principles.
Turkey’s Efforts to Improve Relations with the EU
Despite ongoing tensions, Turkey has sought to improve its relationship with the EU in recent years through diplomatic initiatives, particularly in trade, security cooperation, and counterterrorism efforts. It has also played a crucial role in managing the refugee crisis, hosting over 3.6 million Syrian refugees under the 2016 EU-Turkey migration agreement. However, these efforts have not been sufficient to convince the EU to restart accession negotiations.
Turkey’s Response to the European Parliament’s Report
Ankara has strongly rejected the European Parliament’s conclusions, arguing that they reflect European bias and fail to consider the security challenges Turkey faces. Turkish officials claim that the EU uses democracy and human rights as political pretexts to obstruct Turkey’s accession while applying different standards to other candidate countries with similar records.
Future of EU-Turkey Relations: What Lies Ahead?
It is unlikely that significant progress will be made in Turkey’s EU accession process in the near future, given the deep-rooted differences between both sides. However, several potential scenarios for the future relationship include:
1. Maintaining the Status Quo – Keeping accession negotiations frozen while strengthening cooperation in specific areas such as trade, energy, and migration.
2. Redefining the Relationship – The EU may seek to replace accession talks with a strategic partnership model, granting Turkey economic and security benefits without full membership.
3. Conditional Resumption of Negotiations – If Turkey undertakes substantial democratic reforms, the EU may reconsider reopening accession talks, though this would require profound changes in Turkey’s domestic policies.
Conclusion
The European Parliament’s report reaffirms that Turkey’s EU accession remains on hold due to persistent concerns over democracy and human rights. While Ankara has made diplomatic efforts to mend ties with Brussels, the structural obstacles—both within Turkey and in the EU’s stance—make any breakthrough unlikely in the foreseeable future. The key question remains: Can Turkey ever meet EU membership criteria, or will a new model of engagement be the more realistic path forward?
