Strategic Transformations in the Syrian Landscape
An In-Depth Analysis of the U.S. Relationship with Ahmed Al-Sharrah’s Government and Its Implications for Damascus, the Syrian Democratic Forces, and Regional Balances
Political analysis by Ibrahim Mustafa (Kaban)
The Syrian file has recently witnessed exceptional transformations in the strategic architecture of both international and regional relations, most notably marked by the meeting between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Ahmed Al-Sharrah, head of the Syrian Interim Government. What might superficially appear as a ceremonial encounter carries profound signals that transcend the mere interaction between a Syrian political figure and the United States. It establishes a new framework for influence in Syria, reshapes Washington’s priorities, and redefines the concept of political legitimacy at both the domestic and international levels.
Al-Sharrah’s visit to Washington represents a qualitative turning point in U.S. policy toward Syria, signaling a transition from a reliance on military proxies to the exploration of political partnerships capable of imposing balanced power equations. This proposed partnership with Al-Sharrah’s government is not merely tactical; it reflects a strategic vision that leverages the government’s capacity for institutional and political structuring, enabling it to navigate the complex interplay between the international counterterrorism environment and local moderate Islamic forces.
Shifts in the U.S. Strategic Mindset: From Conflict Management to Reengineering Balance
U.S. policy in Syria has historically relied on a “conflict management” strategy, supporting local factions and Kurdish forces in specific areas. This approach has increasingly proven insufficient to ensure long-term influence or to prevent Washington’s regional competitors—namely Russia, Iran, and Turkey—from filling strategic vacuums. The recent meeting underscores a fundamental U.S. realization that military support alone cannot achieve sustainable outcomes; political partnerships that are institutionally structured and internationally recognizable are essential.
Through the engagement with Al-Sharrah, Washington conveys that the challenge extends beyond controlling territory—it is now about the ability of local actors to evolve into structured political entities capable of managing resources, building bureaucratic apparatuses, and maintaining security within a multi-layered environment. This approach allows the United States to establish a new balance against Russian and Iranian influence without resorting to direct military intervention, while retaining leverage in any future Syrian settlement through a flexible local partner.
Regional Actors: Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia Between Engagement and Caution
At the regional level, the U.S. shift has elicited divergent responses that reflect each actor’s calculations of national and regional interest. Turkey, which has long considered control of northern Syria central to its national security, perceives Al-Sharrah as an opportunity to counterbalance Kurdish influence, yet remains wary that U.S. recognition could grant him political independence beyond Ankara’s immediate control.
Qatar views Al-Sharrah as a bridge linking political Islam and the U.S. administration, seeking to leverage this development to enhance its regional influence via the Syrian opposition. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, adopting a pragmatic stance, regards any project that curbs Iranian influence in Syria as strategically valuable, opening potential avenues for supporting Al-Sharrah’s government if it secures clear U.S. backing. This regional dynamic positions Al-Sharrah not merely as the head of an interim government but as an emerging political actor capable of shaping regional power calculations and redefining the roles of local actors within the international system.
Damascus and the SDF: Confronting a New Political Competitor and Challenges to Legitimacy
Damascus faces an unprecedented strategic challenge as Al-Sharrah emerges as a politically legitimate actor on the international stage. Whereas the Syrian regime traditionally confronted competition within the confines of armed control and territorial dominance, it now contends with a rival whose legitimacy stems from governance, institutional development, and gradual recognition by regional and international stakeholders. This represents a strategic threat to the conventional notion of Syrian sovereignty, compelling the regime to adapt to a political reality that extends beyond central authority in areas outside its control.
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), on the other hand, face a fundamental shift in their strategic calculus. The emergence of Al-Sharrah’s government and its reception by Washington constitutes a direct challenge to the SDF’s project of autonomous administration. This development diminishes their exclusive reliance on U.S. protection, introduces a politically competitive actor supported by Turkey and regional powers, and potentially undermines the autonomy of Kurdish-led governance structures. Anticipated responses may include bolstering ties with Damascus and Russia to counterbalance this shift while attempting to preserve their political and military gains in areas under their control.
Redrawing the Map of Influence and Redefining Legitimacy
Al-Sharrah’s visit to the United States and his meeting with Trump signify a pivotal turning point in the trajectory of the Syrian conflict. They reflect a shift from a purely field-based actor to a political player capable of asserting influence on the international stage. For Washington, seeking a partner who can impose stability without direct military costs, Al-Sharrah’s government presents a flexible and developable model. Regional actors—Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia—are simultaneously capitalizing on this shift to advance their strategic interests.
Consequently, this development transcends a simple event; it marks the beginning of a new phase in the redefinition of legitimacy in Syria—from the legitimacy of force to institutional legitimacy, ultimately leading to international recognition. Post-visit, the Syrian landscape is set to enter a stage of complex power realignments, where the international and regional political calculus increasingly depends on the capacity of local actors to transition from military force to institutional governance and strategic resource management.
