Will Saudi Arabia make a breakthrough in the solid wall of the Syrian crisis?

Written by: Eng. Muhammad Issa
In the aftermath of a devastating earthquake that occurred three weeks ago, Syria and the Middle East region have not witnessed anything like it for many centuries, and in light of the growing fears of its renewal at every moment, the Syrians are living under the weight of a nightmare of a new type of death, a nightmare of death under the rubble of their homes that were built by a model. Corruption in construction investments and contracting, in which many state agencies, municipalities, and engineers’ syndicates were implicated, in doing so, contrary to the conditions of safety and security, and did not provide its residents other than the conditions of the mass grave, and for entire families, and to constitute an additional burden on top of the loads of the Syrians who have become exhausted from Hunger, poverty and homelessness, and they have become reluctant to carry even their clothes in this climate in which society and the state are about to become reeling.

In his light, the Syrian died twice. And he became in permanent death because of his fear of death. And with every morning he wanders on his face in fear of an unknown coming, or runs to the nearest garden or square to spend his night. And because he is absolutely hungry and suffers from all the misfortunes of the world; He began repeating one sentence, “They stole the aid that flowed from the international community to sell it on the black market.” Most of them became passionate about geology and volcanology, or an earthquake expert.

And because the political earthquake that turned the lives of Syrians upside down has been going on for more than a decade, and the state of frustration and despair is dominating the general Syrian mood, after the failure of all international and Arab initiatives and attempts to find a way out of the deteriorating situation, which is deteriorating on a daily basis, and given Because the Syrian issue has become a point of international entanglement, and the Syrian arena has become an extension of the struggle of the major powers. It has become, in large part, a quagmire for the powers intervening in it, and a battleground for quarrels over its fate.

In addition, the initiatives of the international and regional parties concerned with the crisis are accelerating, and they are competing to employ them to serve their interests and mitigate their potential repercussions on their projects and wars that are raging elsewhere in this world, or that could break out at any moment.

And because the issue of whether or not to reproduce the regime in Damascus has always been the distinguishing feature and the main difference between these initiatives; The Saudi initiative launched by the Kingdom's Foreign Minister, Faisal bin Farhan, in his press conference with the Saudi press with its ten clauses, attempts to bridge the formal gap between the two approaches, to reach the new and most important solution to the Syrian dilemma.

It must not be forgotten that this initiative came today against the background of many developments in the political movement around Syria, which can be sought through two tracks. Through it, the Russians aim to improve Erdogan's chances in the upcoming elections at the expense of Syrian national interests. This dish, which may have been remote from its chances of success after the recent earthquake, which changed the order of priorities, or at least weakened the fire under it.

The second is the speech of President al-Assad in his last televised speech, in which he reflected a very important development, when he said that “the Syrian situation has become one of its necessities to achieve a national consensus, and it must be reached through a comprehensive national dialogue.” In turn, he would not have shown excessive enthusiasm or sufficient speed. To walk in the stirrups of the first stream.

Returning to the contents of the Saudi initiative, which will include, in its initial translation on the ground, an expected visit that was announced by the Saudi foreign minister to Damascus. What may be related to the issue of the visit and the initiative is that the timing, which came shortly after President al-Assad's visit to the Sultanate of Oman, indicates a correlation between the two steps, and gives the Saudi step the importance it deserves. And if we add to the elements of the painting the recent visit of the UAE foreign minister to Damascus, the upcoming visit of Assad to the UAE, then the visit of the Egyptian foreign minister to Syria and his meeting with President Assad, all of this can only be understood within the context of the maturation of a formula for a possible solution to the Syrian crisis that is being prepared, in consultation. With the Arab countries that have an important role in regional politics, and that also enjoy favor with Western countries, or that have a word that can be heard in American decision-making circles, as well as friendly relations with Israel.

Based on the aforementioned facts, it can be asserted that the Saudi initiative came to light as a natural and smooth birth, and in the context of the humanitarian situation that arose as a result of the earthquake, and as a culmination of what was previously discussed under the name of the Arab initiative, in which both Egypt and Jordan have a fundamental role.

In a related matter; The initiative, in its ten clauses, does not depart from its essence as measures revolving around realistic arrangements and serious guarantees for the implementation of International Resolution 2254, provided that the head of the regime himself begins to put them into practice. It is noteworthy that there are two points; The demand to put an end to Iranian provocation in the regions of southern Syria, by preventing its spread in these areas, and thus reassuring Jordan, and then accepting the deployment of Arab forces on the Syrian lands and on the border points therefrom, in what can be understood from it as blocking the flow of threats to the Syrian lands by the Turks and Iranians .

In sum, it can be said that the Saudi initiative carries a number of new elements, which make it more likely to achieve the required breakthrough and give the issue of a solution a special dynamism, which can be summarized in the following observations:

First - The initiative is characterized by special flexibility and focuses on the goal, which is the occurrence of change, as it is an urgent need for the Syrian people, regardless of the path that must be followed to achieve that change.

Second – Providing a realistic and convincing environment to stop Iranian and Russian monopoly, and then confront the Turkish threat. This isolation, which justifies itself as a legitimate presence, came at the official invitation of an internationally recognized government with representation in the United Nations and the Security Council, by accepting the invitation of Arab forces to deploy on the Syrian lands and international borders, these forces whose presence will also be legitimate, and whose presence will be enjoyed With additional popular legitimacy, given the growing popular aversion to the Iranian and Russian presence, and the failure of this presence to meet any of the people's demands and interests.

Third – Overcoming the existing problem of “change” or “re-floating the regime”, which made the issue of a solution necessitating harsh surgery, for which the Syrian people did not show sufficient willingness to bear its consequences, so that the solution according to the initiative becomes a comprehensive historical and national entitlement in which all components of the Syrian people can play a role. In achieving it, and thus the initiative provides an opportunity for broad segments within the structure of the system to contribute to the desired change process, that is, the victory of the homeland, and thus the victory of all, will be achieved as a result.

Fourth - The solution, as suggested by the initiative, which is based in its central aspect on the implementation of UN Resolution 2254, does not mean in any way the reproduction of the regime, and there is a great distance between the head of the regime having an active role in changing the regime, and the idea of ​​reproducing the authoritarian regime The totalitarian and faltering in the political and moral sense, as there is no one in the country, including President al-Assad, himself who accepts or bets on reproducing a regime that has failed to achieve any of the national tasks of concern to the people and the country, and what is the president’s talk about the need to achieve national consensus through a comprehensive dialogue? ; It is only an affirmation that the initiative offers a new way to a solution and does not mean floating. Including the president himself.
- mujharcom

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