Position estimation. Geostrategic Studies Team
The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, would have a profound impact on the political and security landscape in Lebanon and the region, given his leadership role in Hezbollah and its regional alliances with Iran and Syria. To analyze the potential scenarios, we can divide them into three main axes:
1. Security and Military Escalation:
Hezbollah's Response: Hezbollah is not just a political organization but a military force, and its leaders are seen as symbols of resistance against Israel and its allies. If Nasrallah were to be killed, it is expected that the party would react violently, whether through military operations within Lebanon or against Israel. The party might use this event to unite its ranks, increase popular support, and portray itself as a victim of external efforts targeting the resistance.
Escalation with Israel: Given the hostile relationship between Hezbollah and Israel, the possibility of war with Israel becomes highly likely. Any attack targeting Nasrallah could be interpreted as an Israeli attempt, which might lead to military escalation on the Lebanese-Israeli border and possibly within Lebanese territories.
Internal Lebanese Conflict: Nasrallah's assassination could lead to internal tensions between Lebanese parties and sects. Hezbollah has significant political and security influence in Lebanon, with strong allies like Amal Movement and the Free Patriotic Movement. Nasrallah's absence could open the door for leadership struggles within the party or attempts by other forces to fill the political vacuum.
2. Regional and International Interventions:
Iran's Role: Iran is Hezbollah's primary backer, and it is unlikely that Tehran would stand idly by if Nasrallah were killed. Iran may seek to support new leaders within the party or even increase its involvement in Lebanon to protect its interests. This could coincide with broader regional tensions involving Syria, Iraq, and possibly Yemen.
International Involvement: The United States and Gulf states, such as Saudi Arabia, view Hezbollah as a terrorist organization and might see Nasrallah's assassination as an opportunity to weaken the group's influence in Lebanon. On the other hand, Russia, with its interests in Syria and Lebanon, might play a role in attempting to mediate the conflict or manage the situation in a way that maintains a balance of power in the region.
Vacuum in the Shiite Leadership: Hezbollah plays a key role in representing the Shiite community in Lebanon. Nasrallah's death could create a leadership vacuum, which may lead to the rise of new Shiite factions, either more moderate or more radical.
3. Possibility of Peace or Political Settlement:
Opportunity for Dialogue: Despite the potential for escalation, some may view Nasrallah's death as an opportunity to open internal dialogue in Lebanon. Certain Lebanese political or religious parties might push for a comprehensive political settlement aimed at calming the situation and restoring balance among political forces.
Weakened Hezbollah Politically: Some may exploit Nasrallah's absence to politically weaken Hezbollah, especially as the party heavily relies on Nasrallah’s charismatic leadership and his history in resistance. In this scenario, the door for political settlements or even imposing reforms that would be impossible with Nasrallah in power might open.
Role of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf: Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, might push for peace or internal dialogue if they perceive that Hezbollah has become weakened. However, this would depend on the ability of local actors to manage the situation and avoid falling into internal conflict.
Conclusion:
The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah would mark a major turning point in the political landscape of Lebanon and the region. The most likely scenarios range from military and security escalation, internal tensions in Lebanon, to regional and international interventions. Although peace could be a potential option in the post-Nasrallah phase, the road to achieving it would be fraught with obstacles and tensions, particularly given the complexity of both regional and local dynamics.
