Strategy Analysis by Ibrahim Kaban / + Video /
The unofficial Turkish-Iranian agreement on the division of influence in Syria refers to an informal understanding between the two countries to divide areas of control. According to this scenario, Turkey has worked on displacing Sunni Arabs to the border areas between it and Syria, settling them in regions with a Kurdish majority. Meanwhile, Iran has implemented a project to convert Sunni Arab areas to Shiism in order to strengthen its religious and political influence in Syria. These dynamics reflect the different strategic interests of both parties, with Turkey aiming to limit Kurdish influence near its borders, while Iran seeks to expand its sectarian influence in Syria.
The analysis that suggests the current war between Israel and Hezbollah aims to displace the Shia population from southern Lebanon and resettle them in Sunni cities and neighborhoods in Syria requires deconstructing the multiple political and geopolitical dimensions involved. Below is an analysis based on this assumption:
1. Regional Context and Relations Between the Parties:
Turkey and Iran: The relationship between Turkey and Iran is governed by complex balances. While both countries share some common interests in maintaining regional stability within certain limits, there is also geopolitical competition between them. Turkey supports certain Sunni opposition factions against the Syrian regime, while Iran backs the Syrian regime and its allies like Lebanon's Hezbollah. However, despite these differences, partial coordination may exist when it comes to the redistribution of roles and influence in post-war Syria.
The Syrian Regime and Hezbollah: The Syrian regime, led by Bashar al-Assad, and Hezbollah are strategic allies of Iran. Hezbollah’s involvement in the Syrian conflict was to support the regime and maintain a vital corridor between Lebanon and Syria, which is part of Iran’s regional influence.
2. Forced Displacement as a Tool for Demographic Change:
Sunni Displacement: During the Syrian civil war, there were widespread displacements of Arab Sunnis, either due to sieges, military operations, or settlements reached between factions and the Syrian regime. These operations led to a vacuum in many predominantly Sunni areas, particularly in central Syria, Aleppo, and some regions near the Turkish border.
Resettling the Shia: According to this scenario, if there is a plan to displace the Shia from southern Lebanon due to military escalation with Israel, those Syrian areas may be the primary destination for their resettlement, especially as these areas have been depopulated of their original Sunni inhabitants. This would strengthen Iran’s influence in Syria by creating Shia strongholds loyal to it.
3. Kurdish Areas and Turkey:
Turkey and Kurdish Areas: Since the onset of the Syrian crisis, Turkey has intervened militarily in Kurdish areas in northern Syria to prevent the establishment of an independent Kurdish entity on its borders. It has taken control of areas like Afrin and parts of northern Aleppo countryside. In this context, there could be a plan to resettle Sunni Arabs displaced from central and southern Syria in these Kurdish areas, creating a new demographic balance and curbing Kurdish influence there.
4. Strategic Objective:
Demographic Rearrangement of Syria: If there is an agreement between Turkey, Iran, and the Syrian regime to rearrange Syria’s demographic makeup, the ultimate goal would be to establish clear sectarian and ethnic zones of influence. The Syrian regime, supported by Iran and Hezbollah, would maintain control over central and western regions where the Shia would be resettled, while northern areas would remain under Turkey’s control and Sunni groups.
Israel’s Role: On Israel’s part, any military escalation with Hezbollah may serve its security and strategic interests, and pushing the Shia out of southern Lebanon would reduce Hezbollah’s threat on its borders while deepening the sectarian crisis in the region.
5. Challenges to the Plan:
Implementation: Implementing such a plan requires precise cooperation between these conflicting parties, but achieving long-term consensus between Turkey, Iran, and the Syrian regime, despite their differing interests, poses a significant challenge.
International and Regional Opposition: Such a plan may face strong opposition from the international community and other regional states, especially as the forced displacement of large populations further destabilizes the region.
6. Conclusion:
If the proposed scenario is accurate, it reflects a complex interplay between the regional ambitions of the various parties and the exploitation of war and military confrontations to redraw the demographic and political map of the region.
