Position estimation. Geostrategic Studies Team
The international community may appear lenient or ineffective in holding Turkey and the Syrian opposition groups linked to it accountable for the crimes committed in Afrin due to several complex reasons related to international politics and geography:
1. Geopolitical interests: Turkey is a member of NATO and plays a strategic role in the region, both in terms of its geographic location and its cooperation on issues such as migration and terrorism. Major powers, especially the United States and the European Union, seek to maintain good relations with Turkey because of this role, which may deter them from directly criticizing Turkey.
2. Balance of power in Syria: The conflict in Syria is highly complex and involves multiple parties, including Russia, Iran, the United States, and Turkey. All these powers have overlapping interests, and Turkey is a key player in the Syrian conflict, making other countries hesitant to hold it accountable for fear of destabilizing the delicate balance.
3. Weak international mechanisms: International mechanisms aimed at holding perpetrators accountable, such as the International Criminal Court or UN-led investigations, are often ineffective due to vetoes or lack of cooperation from major powers. Additionally, some global powers may be reluctant to impose harsh sanctions or open international investigations against Turkey as it could complicate international relations.
4. Media and information: Sometimes, there is a lack of international media coverage of the crimes and violations occurring in areas like Afrin, or the focus is on other areas in Syria, such as Idlib or Damascus. This leads to insufficient pressure from international public opinion.
5. Domestic situation in Turkey: Under Erdoğan's leadership, Turkey has built a strong nationalist narrative based on fighting Kurdish groups it considers terrorist, such as the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the People's Protection Units (YPG). This stance enjoys broad support within Turkey, reducing the likelihood of strong international actions being taken against it.
6. Multiple parties and armed groups: The conflict in Syria involves not only Turkey and the opposition groups it supports but also a large number of armed factions and groups backed by regional and international powers. This complexity makes it difficult to focus criticism on one party without considering the others.
In conclusion, political calculations and strategic interests often outweigh the commitment to international accountability for crimes and violations, which applies to the case of Afrin.
