Prepared by: Geostrategic Studies Team
Major powers and regional players are seeking to redraw the map of influence in the Middle East in light of the ongoing geopolitical changes. In this context, the issue of relations between the Syrian regime and Turkey is one of the main factors that may significantly affect the situation in northern and eastern Syria, where the Kurdish Autonomous Administration emerges as a major player in this complex conflict.
1. Historical and political background:
Turkey seeks to strengthen its influence in northern and eastern Syria by supporting the Syrian opposition and providing logistical support to armed militias. On the other hand, the Kurdish Autonomous Administration, which is considered a pivotal force in confronting ISIS, seeks to maintain its independence and expand its influence in the absence of continued international support.
When the Syrian regime regains control over areas that were under the control of the opposition, and with the start of the rapprochement process between Ankara and Damascus, a set of questions arise about how this rapprochement will affect the current situation in northern and eastern Syria.
2. Potential impact on the Kurdish Autonomous Administration:
A. Military and political pressure:
If Turkey and the Syrian regime reach an agreement aimed at improving relations between them, this could lead to greater coordination between the two sides against the Kurds in northern and eastern Syria. This scenario raises great concerns among the Kurdish Autonomous Administration, which relies on its independence and ability to preserve its interests. Potential cooperation between Turkey and the Syrian regime could include military or political moves aimed at undermining their authority and destabilizing the areas they control.
B. Impact on regional and international relations:
A rapprochement between Turkey and the Syrian regime could result in changes in regional and international alliances. Once such rapprochement is achieved, the Kurdish Autonomous Administration may find itself in a less powerful position on the international stage. This could affect its ability to obtain international support, exposing it to greater risks in the face of military and political threats.
C. Economic and social impacts:
Increased military and political pressure could worsen the humanitarian and economic conditions in areas controlled by the Kurdish Autonomous Administration. If the Syrian regime and Turkey impose a blockade or punitive measures, the economic situation could worsen, leading to civilian suffering and increasing social tensions.
3. Strategies of the Autonomous Administration to Confront Challenges:
To avoid potential damage, the Kurdish Autonomous Administration must strengthen its relations with major international powers, such as the United States and the European Union, and seek to build new alliances in light of the changing situation. The administration must also seek to adopt a flexible policy that enables it to adapt to political changes on the ground.
Conclusion:
The restoration of relations between the Syrian regime and Turkey may pose a major threat to the Kurdish Autonomous Administration in North and East Syria. The current situation requires the Autonomous Administration to be prepared to confront the upcoming challenges and seek to strengthen its international and regional standing to ensure the continuity of its stability and influence in light of the ongoing political fluctuations.
