Strategic Analysis: Geostrategic Studies Team
For decades, Turkey, particularly the Incirlik Air Base, has been a cornerstone of NATO's defense and deterrence strategy in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkey's geographical location, bridging Europe and Asia, has made it a pivotal player in maintaining geopolitical balance in the region. However, the relationship between Turkey and NATO has experienced increasing tensions in recent years, raising questions about the future of this alliance and the possibility of replacing Incirlik with alternative bases in the region, such as Syria or Jordan.
1. The Relationship Between Turkey and NATO
Turkey has been a NATO member since 1952 and has played a crucial role in the alliance’s operations in the Middle East. However, under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey's foreign policy has become more independent, leading to rising tensions. Some of the key issues include:
Turkey’s Military Cooperation with Russia: Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system has caused discontent among NATO allies, particularly the United States, which sees this move as a threat to the alliance’s defense integration.
Regional Policies: Turkey’s involvement in regional conflicts, such as military interventions in Syria and Iraq, and its actions in the Eastern Mediterranean do not always align with NATO’s priorities or the interests of its members.
Despite these tensions, Turkey remains a crucial part of the alliance due to its unique geographical position, military strength, and role in counter-terrorism efforts.
2. The Importance of Incirlik Air Base for NATO
The Incirlik Air Base is one of NATO’s vital military assets in the Middle East, used for supporting air operations, including the campaign against ISIS. The base also hosts tactical nuclear weapons as part of NATO’s nuclear deterrence strategy.
Strategic Location: Incirlik’s proximity to conflict zones in Syria and Iraq makes it an ideal location to support military operations in the region.
Logistical Facilities: The base boasts advanced infrastructure and the capacity to accommodate strategic combat aircraft and drones, giving NATO a strategic edge in executing operations against regional threats.
3. The Likelihood of NATO Abandoning Turkey and Incirlik
Abandoning Turkey and the Incirlik base seems unlikely in the near future for several reasons:
Geopolitical Importance of Turkey: As a bridge between Europe and Asia, and being close to Russia and the Middle East, Turkey remains a strategic player. Reducing Turkey’s role in NATO could create a geopolitical vacuum that other powers, like Russia or Iran, might exploit.
Necessary Cooperation: Despite disagreements, cooperation continues on key issues such as counter-terrorism, migration, and regional security, which is vital for both Turkey and NATO.
Lack of Short-term Alternatives: Even with rising tensions, relocating operations from Incirlik to another location would take time and require significant investments.
4. Can Syria or Jordan Be Alternatives?
Jordan
Jordan appears to be a more realistic alternative than Syria for several reasons:
Political Stability: Jordan enjoys relative stability in a volatile region and is a close ally of the United States and Western countries in counter-terrorism and military cooperation.
Military Facilities: The U.S. Air Force already operates out of military bases in Jordan, such as the Azraq Air Base, to support air operations in Syria and Iraq. However, Jordan’s infrastructure would need significant upgrades to accommodate the complex operations currently handled at Incirlik.
Geographical Location: Jordan is geographically close to conflict zones in Syria and Iraq, but not as proximate as Incirlik to areas of Russian or Iranian influence, which could affect the effectiveness of operations.
Syria
Syria, as an alternative to Incirlik, is a highly unlikely option for several reasons:
Security Instability: Syria remains embroiled in internal conflicts and regional tensions, and the presence of Russian and Iranian influence complicates any possibility of establishing NATO bases there.
International Relations: The current Syrian regime is not a potential partner for NATO in the foreseeable future. Any cooperation between Syria and NATO would require drastic political and security changes, which are improbable in the short term.
5. Future Scenarios
Scenario 1: Maintaining the Status Quo
In this scenario, cooperation between NATO and Turkey, including the use of Incirlik Air Base, continues despite political tensions. Turkey would remain a strategic player in the alliance due to its geographical importance, while NATO works to manage and mitigate tensions.
Scenario 2: Gradual Withdrawal and Shift Toward Jordan
If tensions between Turkey and NATO escalate, the alliance may begin gradually relocating some operations to alternative bases in Jordan, but would still rely on Incirlik to some extent, while enhancing Jordan's infrastructure as a backup plan.
Scenario 3: Complete Abandonment of Turkey
This scenario is the least likely, as it would require a major shift in NATO's regional policy. Abandoning Turkey would have significant geopolitical consequences, including the strengthening of Russian and Iranian influence in the region.
Conclusion
Despite tensions between Turkey and NATO, abandoning Turkey or Incirlik Air Base in the near future is unlikely. Turkey remains an indispensable strategic ally given its sensitive geographical location. Jordan may be a potential alternative but only in a limited capacity, while Syria is out of the question given current political and security conditions. The future of NATO-Turkey relations depends on both sides’ ability to navigate tensions and focus on mutual interests, including maintaining regional stability and countering terrorism.
