Strategic Analysis by Geostrategic Studies Team
Introduction: In recent years, the Middle East has witnessed significant developments that have led to profound shifts in the regional balance of power. One of the most notable developments is what can be considered the gradual "disbanding" or weakening of the Axis of Resistance, which was formed years ago and includes several parties such as Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Syrian regime, as well as the Shiite movements in Iraq and the Houthi movement in Yemen. It appears that Israel, alongside its allies, is pursuing a long-term strategy to dismantle this axis, taking advantage of both internal and external dynamics of each party involved.
The term "axis disassembly operation" refers to Israel's efforts to break or dismantle the regional alliances and fronts that support resistance against it, commonly known as the Axis of Resistance. This axis typically includes Iran and its allies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Palestinian resistance factions like Hamas and Islamic Jihad, as well as some Iraqi and Syrian factions.
Israel seeks to dismantle this axis through various means, including:
1. Military operations: Such as airstrikes targeting military or logistical sites of armed factions in Syria and Lebanon, and sometimes within Palestinian territories.
2. Diplomatic and international pressure: Leveraging international alliances, especially with the United States and Western countries, to impose economic sanctions on Iran and its allies or to apply political pressure on regional states.
3. Normalization with Arab states: Israel is attempting to break its regional isolation by establishing diplomatic relations with Arab and Muslim countries, through agreements like the Abraham Accords, aiming to reduce Arab support for the Axis of Resistance.
4. Psychological and media warfare: Israel uses media and propaganda to influence public opinion in the region and raise doubts about the effectiveness and purpose of the Axis of Resistance.
These efforts are part of broader strategies to weaken Iran's influence in the region and reduce the threats posed by armed resistance groups to Israel's security.
1. Gaza and Hamas: The recent Israeli campaign targeting the Axis of Resistance began by focusing on Hamas in the Gaza Strip. After years of military operations, Hamas has faced unprecedented pressure from Israel, along with internal disagreements and tensions with the Palestinian Authority. The latest Israeli military campaign, characterized by advanced technology and intensive aerial power, has significantly weakened Hamas' military capabilities.
Analysis: The near-complete destruction of Hamas' military capabilities may be viewed as a short-term strategic victory for Israel. However, Hamas is a popular movement with significant internal support and may be able to rebuild its capabilities in the long run. Nevertheless, Israel seeks to exploit this weakening to dismantle Hamas' political and social base in Gaza, potentially paving the way for internal changes in the governance of the Strip.
2. Hezbollah in Lebanon: After Gaza, attention has shifted to Hezbollah in Lebanon, which poses the greatest threat to Israel on its northern front. In recent months, there has been a marked escalation in military operations targeting Hezbollah's positions and arms depots. Israel is primarily focused on dismantling Hezbollah's military infrastructure through heavy air and missile strikes.
Analysis: Hezbollah possesses far greater military capabilities than Hamas, and enjoys strong support from Iran. However, several internal factors could contribute to its weakening, including Lebanon’s severe economic crisis and growing domestic criticism of its involvement in regional conflicts and the Syrian war. While Israeli strikes may reduce Hezbollah’s capabilities, it is unlikely to be completely neutralized, as the group remains deeply entrenched in Lebanon's social and political fabric. Israel’s goal is to weaken Hezbollah's ability to pose a direct threat and to curtail its influence within Lebanon.
3. The Syrian Regime: Although the Syrian regime is part of the Axis of Resistance, it seems to be outside the immediate circle of conflict at this stage. After years of civil war, the Syrian regime has become a relatively weakened player in the regional arena, despite continuing to hold power with support from Russia and Iran.
Analysis: Targeting the Syrian regime at this stage is likely not a priority for Israel, as its focus is on the militant groups that pose direct threats to its security. The war-weakened Syrian regime currently does not present an immediate threat to Israel, although it remains a supporter of Hezbollah and Palestinian armed movements. Consequently, Syria may only be targeted if it is deemed necessary to disrupt weapons supply lines or threaten Israel’s strategic interests in the region.
4. The Houthi Movement: The Houthi movement in Yemen is a crucial part of the Axis of Resistance due to its close ties with Iran, but the Saudi and Emirati-led campaign against the Houthis has weakened their ability to influence the regional scene beyond Yemen.
Analysis: The Houthi movement poses a greater threat to the regional interests of Saudi Arabia and the UAE than to Israel directly. However, the success of the Saudi-led coalition in limiting the Houthis’ capabilities weakens the overall Axis of Resistance, especially in terms of funding and logistical support. Israel views the containment of the Houthis as an indirect gain in its broader efforts to weaken the axis.
5. Iraqi Militias: The Iran-backed militias in Iraq play a pivotal role in the regional conflict, serving as part of Iran’s influence in Iraq and Syria. Israel has repeatedly targeted militia sites in both Syria and Iraq, as it considers them a direct threat to its security.
Analysis: Iraqi militias are key to Iran's regional strategy of expanding its influence, but increasing Israeli airstrikes against them, combined with political tensions within Iraq, may limit their effectiveness. Additionally, the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq leaves the field open for internal competition among various factions, which could further weaken the Axis of Resistance as a whole.
Conclusion: Israel, in collaboration with its allies, is pursuing a policy of gradually dismantling the Axis of Resistance by targeting its different components based on the conditions of each front. While it has succeeded in making progress in Gaza against Hamas and inflicted serious damage on Hezbollah, these conflicts are part of broader regional dynamics. Internal conditions in Lebanon and Syria, coupled with pressure on Iran, may contribute to further weakening the Axis of Resistance. However, it is unlikely that this axis will be entirely dismantled in the near future. Israel’s primary goal is to reduce the military capabilities of the axis and diminish its political influence, while continuing to conduct preemptive strikes aimed at disrupting supply lines and curbing Iranian influence in the region.
