Strategic Analysis by Ibrahim Kaban
The project of self-administration in North and East Syria (Rojava) is a political and administrative initiative aimed at granting autonomy to the region’s communities (Kurds, Arabs, Assyrians, Turkmen, and others) within the framework of the Syrian state. The Democratic Self-Administration was officially established in 2013 during the Syrian civil war, with the support of the People’s Protection Units (YPG) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). It later expanded to cover various regions in northern and eastern Syria. This project is unique in the region, raising questions about whether it will succeed or fail, based on several internal and external factors.
First: Chances of Success
1. Pluralism and Inclusiveness: The self-administration seeks to represent the various ethnic and religious communities of the region, including Kurds, Arabs, Assyrians, and Armenians. This approach of pluralism and inclusivity could enhance its chances of success, as the political system in North and East Syria is based on the principle of direct democracy and confederalism, which could meet the needs of all communities and reduce ethnic and religious tensions.
2. Relative Stability: Compared to other parts of Syria, which are still embroiled in armed conflict, the self-administration has managed to achieve a relative degree of stability in its regions. This political and security stability could be a key factor for success, as it allows local populations to focus on economic development and societal rebuilding.
3. Indirect International Support: Although the self-administration has not received official international recognition, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have received military support from the US-led international coalition in the fight against ISIS. This support has strengthened the self-administration’s security capacities and bolstered its political influence within the Syrian landscape, potentially aiding its long-term survival.
4. Economic Development: The region is rich in natural resources, including oil, gas, and fertile agricultural land. If the self-administration can effectively manage these resources, they could form the basis for economic stability, which is crucial for the long-term sustainability of any political project.
5. Stable Administrative Structures: The self-administration has created local councils and governance institutions based on a federal system that ensures broad representation. If these administrative structures are further developed and local communities are actively involved, this could help strengthen local and regional legitimacy.
Second: Challenges and Potential Reasons for Failure
1. International and Regional Pressure: Turkey views the self-administration as a threat to its national security due to its links with the PKK and has repeatedly conducted military operations against areas controlled by the self-administration, such as Afrin, Ras al-Ayn, and Tal Abyad. Turkish pressure, along with the lack of broad international recognition, may hinder the development of this project and limit its ability to survive.
2. Conflict with the Syrian Government: Despite temporary ceasefire agreements, relations between the self-administration and the Syrian government remain tense. The Assad regime seeks to reassert control over all Syrian territory, which may put pressure on the self-administration to reintegrate under Damascus' centralized authority. The absence of a permanent political agreement with the Syrian government could lead to a prolonged conflict.
3. Economic Weakness: Despite the region’s natural resources, the self-administration faces significant economic challenges. The lack of infrastructure and technology, combined with the ongoing effects of the civil war, has made the local economy dependent on external aid. The absence of a sustainable economic model could lead to internal unrest and increase the likelihood of failure.
4. Internal Divisions: Although the self-administration has managed to achieve some degree of cohesion among the various ethnic and religious groups, tensions may persist within the diverse society of North and East Syria. These divisions could weaken leadership or cause internal instability if not effectively managed.
5. Political Obstacles: In the absence of international recognition as a legitimate political entity, the self-administration may remain diplomatically isolated. This lack of international support limits its ability to fund its projects or acquire the necessary resources for development.
Third: Future Scenarios
Success Scenario: The self-administration project could succeed if it manages to strike a balance between international and regional interests, particularly through reaching a political agreement with the Syrian government that grants it a form of autonomy within the Syrian state. Achieving economic stability and local development could further bolster this success. If the needs of the local population are met and a successful model of local democracy is established, the project could become a model for other regions in Syria or even the broader Middle East.
Failure Scenario: The project may fail if Turkey continues its military pressure on the region or if international support collapses. If the self-administration fails to reach a political agreement with the Syrian government or faces internal uprisings due to economic hardships or ethnic tensions, it could disintegrate or be forced to reintegrate into a centralized Syrian state.
Conclusion
The future of the self-administration in North and East Syria remains uncertain and depends on a variety of internal and external factors. Success hinges on its ability to address economic, political, and security challenges, and to develop a sustainable and inclusive governance system. Failure, on the other hand, could result from external and internal pressures that may lead to the collapse of this ambitious project.
