Strategic Analysis by Ibrahim Kaban
Many countries and parties in the Middle East are seeking to reduce the influence of Hezbollah, Hamas, and other Iran-linked groups for several political, security, and economic reasons, including:
1. Increasing Iranian Influence: These groups are seen as tools of Iran to expand its influence in the region. Countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and even some Western nations view Iran as a source of regional instability and fear the dominance of its influence over the internal affairs of Middle Eastern countries.
2. Interference in Internal Affairs: Hezbollah, Hamas, and other Iranian allies are accused of interfering in the internal affairs of Arab countries such as Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. For instance, Hezbollah wields significant political and military influence in Lebanon, often disrupting the political process. Iran's and its allies' interference is seen as a threat to the sovereignty of these countries.
3. Regional Destabilization: Iran uses these groups to carry out military operations or support local militias that destabilize the region, such as the Houthis in Yemen. This creates ongoing tensions and conflicts that harm regional stability.
4. Relations with the West and Israel: Many countries in the region, especially after signing peace agreements with Israel, see Hamas and Hezbollah as threats to their regional interests and alliances with Western nations. These groups are considered terrorist organizations by many countries and pose a security threat through their attacks or military actions.
5. Economic Impact: Sanctions on Iran and its allies negatively affect local economies in countries dealing with these groups. Lebanon, for example, is suffering from a severe economic crisis, and Hezbollah, through its ties to Iran, is seen as part of the problem due to U.S. and international sanctions against it.
Common goals against Iran
The elimination of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and Iran’s proxies in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq is a shared goal for many regional and international actors, driven by security, political, and strategic interests. Here is an in-depth analysis from the perspective of each party:
1. Arab States Opposed to Iran
Arab states, especially the Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, view Iran’s influence as a major threat to their stability and security. Hezbollah and Hamas are extensions of this influence:
Regional Security Threat: Hezbollah and Hamas are considered tools for Iran to execute its regional agenda by destabilizing governments and Arab regimes. The presence of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza strengthens Iranian influence and creates instability that threatens neighboring Arab states' security. Iran's involvement in Arab conflicts, such as the wars in Yemen and Syria, heightens these concerns.
Sectarianism and Political Control: Arab states opposing Iran see Tehran using military proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and other militias in Syria and Iraq to expand its sectarian and political influence. These groups undermine the sovereignty of nations and make them subservient to Iranian interests, as seen in Lebanon and Iraq.
Maintaining International Alliances: Arab states, especially in the Gulf, seek to bolster their relationships with Western powers and the U.S., which have taken a firm stance against Iran. Dismantling Iran’s proxies in the region strengthens the Arab position within these alliances.
2. Lebanese Forces Opposed to Hezbollah
Lebanese forces opposed to Hezbollah, such as the Future Movement, the Lebanese Forces, and the Kataeb Party, see Hezbollah as a major obstacle to national sovereignty and political and economic stability:
National Sovereignty: Hezbollah is an independent military force outside the Lebanese state’s control, making its decisions independently of the central authority. This weakens the state and makes it difficult for the Lebanese government to exert full control over the country. Disbanding Hezbollah’s military wing would restore Lebanon’s sovereignty and re-establish balance in the country’s political power.
Involvement in Regional Conflicts: Hezbollah’s involvement in the Syrian war and its alignment with Iran in other regional conflicts has placed Lebanon in a delicate international position, exposing the country to economic sanctions and external pressures due to the party's actions. Removing Hezbollah would reduce these negative repercussions.
Economic Crisis: Hezbollah is accused of obstructing political and economic reforms in Lebanon, contributing to the country's economic collapse. Lebanese forces view the elimination of Hezbollah as an opportunity to restructure the country’s economy without external interventions or internal political blockades.
3. Israel’s Interest
Israel views Hezbollah and Hamas as existential security threats and has adopted a clear policy to deal with these dangers:
Direct Security Threat: Hezbollah possesses a large arsenal of missiles capable of targeting deep inside Israel. Previous military confrontations, such as the 2006 war, demonstrated Hezbollah’s ability to launch effective attacks on Israel. Hamas, meanwhile, poses a constant threat from the south, launching rockets and conducting military operations.
Defense Strategy: Israel seeks to neutralize or destroy Iran’s military proxies on its northern borders (Hezbollah in Lebanon) and southern borders (Hamas in Gaza) to secure its borders and maintain military superiority. Its military operations in Syria aim to prevent Iran from strengthening its presence there, which is part of a broader strategy to counter Iran’s regional expansion.
Military Deterrence: Eliminating or significantly weakening Hezbollah and Hamas would bolster Israel’s military deterrence and prevent new wars or armed confrontations with these groups, ensuring a more stable long-term security environment.
4. The U.S. and Western Powers’ Interests
For the U.S. and Western powers, dismantling Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran’s proxies in the region serves several strategic objectives:
Containing Iranian Influence: The U.S. seeks to limit Iran’s regional influence as part of its broader strategy to counter threats to its allies in the Middle East, including Israel and the Gulf states. Iran’s military proxies are the main instruments through which Tehran exerts its influence in domestic and regional politics.
Counterterrorism: Hezbollah and Hamas are designated as terrorist organizations by the U.S. and many Western countries. Their elimination is seen as a critical step in the fight against terrorism and opens the door to greater security and stability in the Middle East.
Strengthening Regional Alliances: Dismantling these groups would strengthen U.S. alliances with Arab states and Israel and enhance Western influence in the region. With a reduced Iranian threat, Western powers could focus on other challenges, such as the rise of competing powers like Russia and China.
Conclusion
It is evident that the elimination of Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran’s proxies in Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, and Iraq represents a shared interest for many parties. These interests converge around issues of regional security, national sovereignty, limiting Iranian influence, and combating terrorism. However, achieving this goal requires complex political and military coordination among these actors, as well as overcoming significant field and diplomatic challenges.
