Dildar Bashouri / Member of the Analysis Team at Geostrategic
The elections in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq are witnessing a state of tension and fierce competition among Kurdish parties, especially in light of the exchange of accusations related to corruption and mismanagement. This complicates the electoral scene and makes it difficult to predict definitive outcomes. Nevertheless, a strategic analysis can be presented based on several influential factors in the Kurdish political arena.
1. Major political forces on the scene:
Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP): Led by Masoud Barzani, the KDP remains the largest and most dominant political force, especially in Erbil and Duhok provinces. The KDP has a strong popular base, benefits from control over significant economic resources, and maintains a cohesive political structure.
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK): Despite internal challenges following the death of Jalal Talabani, the PUK remains a significant force, particularly in the Sulaymaniyah and Kirkuk areas. Although the PUK has faced internal divisions and declining popularity, it still holds considerable influence in its traditional strongholds.
Gorran (Change) Movement: Although weaker compared to previous years, the Gorran Movement remains an important player, especially in Sulaymaniyah. It seeks to attract voters disillusioned with the corruption and governance issues of the larger parties.
Other parties: Groups like the Kurdistan Islamic Union and the Kurdistan Islamic Group play supplementary roles in the political landscape, often forming alliances with larger parties.
2. Political and security challenges:
Corruption and internal strife: Allegations of corruption and mismanagement, as well as declining public services, have weakened public trust in the political system. This may negatively affect voter turnout or push voters toward parties that propose reformist agendas or clean alternatives.
Conflict between Erbil and Sulaymaniyah: The ongoing tension between Erbil, dominated by the KDP, and Sulaymaniyah, controlled by the PUK, complicates the elections. The geographic divide between the north (Erbil and Duhok) and the south (Sulaymaniyah and Halabja) is likely to result in significantly different electoral outcomes.
3. Economic and social factors:
Economic decline: Economic challenges, including unemployment and declining services, put significant pressure on the electorate. Parties that offer promises of economic improvement may attract the votes of those most affected by the region’s economic struggles.
Tribal and familial divisions: Tribal and familial connections play an important role in shaping voter behavior in certain areas, with some candidates relying on their family or local community support to secure votes.
4. Possible scenarios:
Victory for the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP): The KDP is likely to secure significant wins, particularly in its traditional strongholds, although the victory may not be overwhelming. It is expected to face considerable opposition in Sulaymaniyah and areas controlled by the PUK.
Progress for the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK): Despite internal conflicts, the PUK may retain its ability to attract voters in Sulaymaniyah and Kirkuk, especially if it can improve its internal cohesion and present a united front.
Potential alliances: Due to the relative alignment between parties opposed to the KDP, there could be coalitions between the PUK, Gorran, and some Islamic parties to counterbalance the KDP’s influence, particularly if these parties feel that a direct win is unlikely.
5. Role of regional powers:
Iran and Turkey: Both Iran and Turkey exert considerable influence on Kurdish politics, particularly by supporting certain parties over others. Any external interference could impact the results, whether through financial support for campaigns or political and economic pressure.
Conclusion:
The elections in the Kurdistan Region are expected to be competitive and difficult, with the KDP likely to secure significant victories, especially in its strongholds. However, internal divisions within the PUK and the weakening of Gorran could lead to a fragmented vote, making it harder for any party to claim a clear majority. Political alliances will be key to forming the next government, and the elections may produce a more complicated outcome than in previous years, with growing tensions between Erbil and Sulaymaniyah.
