Report prepared by: Geostrategic Studies Team
The transfer of the war between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) to Iraqi Kurdistan can be explained by several factors, including:
1. Rugged Geography: The mountainous and rugged areas of Iraqi Kurdistan provide a relatively safe haven for PKK fighters, facilitating their military operations against Turkey and allowing them to return to areas that are difficult for the Turkish army to access.
2. Weak Government Control in Border Areas: The Iraqi government and the Kurdistan Regional Government may not have complete or effective control over the border regions, allowing the PKK to move more freely in these areas and exploit the security vacuum.
3. Military Pressure Inside Turkey: Following extensive military operations carried out by Turkey against the PKK within its own borders, the PKK may have been compelled to retreat to Iraqi Kurdistan as a strategic refuge.
4. Regional Relations: The Turkish government may view attacking PKK bases in Iraqi Kurdistan as politically less costly compared to large-scale operations within Turkey itself. There are also security arrangements and understandings between Turkey and the Kurdistan Regional Government that allow Turkey to conduct military operations against the PKK on Iraqi territory.
5. Strategic Depth: The PKK uses this region to expand its operations, organize its ranks, and secure supplies. Its presence in this area provides it with a kind of "strategic depth" that allows it to continue its fight against Turkey.
Overall, the transfer of the conflict to Iraqi Kurdistan is the result of geographic, political, and military factors that make it difficult for either side to achieve a decisive victory within Turkey itself.
Dimensions of relations between the Kurdistan Region and Turkey
The relationship between Turkey and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq is marked by historical and geopolitical complexity, with security, political, and economic interests deeply intertwined. When analyzing the perspective that Turkey’s objectives in the region aim to prevent the development of the broader Kurdish cause, and that the use of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) as a pretext is a cover for larger ambitions, the following points can be considered:
1. The Kurdish Challenge within Turkey:
The Kurdish issue in Turkey has posed a significant security and political threat for decades, with Kurds in Turkey seeking greater political and cultural rights, and some aiming for autonomy or even independence. Since the PKK was founded in the 1980s, Turkey has viewed it as an existential threat. Thus, targeting PKK strongholds in Iraq aligns with its security strategy. However, the question arises: is this solely about the PKK?
2. The Kurdish Ambition in Iraq:
The Kurdistan Region of Iraq enjoys broad autonomy, serving as a model for Kurdish self-governance in the region. The success of the region, especially after gaining more powers post-2003, poses a challenge to Turkey, as it could inspire Kurds within Turkey and strengthen their aspirations. From Turkey's perspective, destabilizing the region and preventing its political and economic growth could be an unspoken goal.
3. The PKK as a Pretext:
There’s no doubt that Turkey exploits the PKK’s presence in northern Iraq to justify its military interventions, but this may be part of a broader strategy to limit Kurdish influence in general. It’s not just the PKK; any development of the region's economic or military capabilities could be seen as a long-term threat. Iraqi Kurds have shown political and economic progress and maintain strong external relations, especially with the West—something that does not sit well with the Turkish government, which fears strengthening Kurdish nationalism within its borders.
4. Turkey’s Economic Interests in the Region:
In addition to security and political motives, economic interests play a significant role. Turkey is a key trading partner for the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, particularly in energy and oil. Controlling or influencing Kurdish decision-making in Iraq gives Ankara strategic leverage that can be used for economic purposes. Its military interventions reinforce its negotiating position with the Kurdistan Regional Government and bolster its ability to protect its economic interests.
5. Regional Balance and International Powers:
Turkey does not operate in a vacuum; it is part of a complex regional balance. Ankara has an interest in maintaining influence in northern Iraq to counter Iranian influence or attempts by Western powers to strengthen the capabilities of the Kurdish region. This influence can manifest in military interventions under the pretext of fighting terrorism (PKK), but with broader objectives in mind.
6. Preventing the Emergence of a Kurdish State:
Turkey strongly opposes any step toward the independence of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq as a separate state. In this context, any military or diplomatic action could be used to thwart such aspirations. Ankara believes that an independent Kurdistan in Iraq would be the first step towards escalating Kurdish demands in Turkey, and thus weakening or destabilizing Kurdish capacities in the region is part of a broader strategy to contain any developments related to the Kurdish cause as a whole.
Conclusion:
Considering these factors, it can be argued that Turkey’s goals are not solely focused on fighting the PKK but are more broadly aimed at preventing any development that could strengthen the Kurdish cause, whether in Iraq or Turkey. Using the PKK as a pretext for interventions grants Ankara international legitimacy, but at its core, these interventions can be seen as part of a strategy to prevent any developments that threaten Turkey’s territorial and political unity, especially concerning the Kurdish issue.
