Special/Editorial Board of Geostrategic Studies
The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria poses significant security risks to the Kurds. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), led by the Kurds, heavily rely on U.S. support in terms of training, equipment, and aerial intelligence. Without this support, the Kurds will face difficulties in maintaining their gains against multiple threats, including:
ISIS Resurgence: Despite its decline, ISIS remains a threat through sleeper cells, particularly in liberated areas.
Turkey: Turkey views the SDF as a threat due to its ties with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). A U.S. withdrawal could encourage Turkey to launch new military offensives against Kurdish-held areas, as seen in Afrin and Tal Abyad.
The Syrian Regime and its Allies: A U.S. withdrawal might pave the way for Syrian regime forces, supported by Russia and Iran, to advance into Kurdish-controlled areas, jeopardizing Kurdish autonomy.
2. Political and Economic Setbacks
The absence of U.S. forces could lead to a decline in international support for the Kurds, not only militarily but also in terms of humanitarian and development aid, further destabilizing Kurdish communities.
This withdrawal may undermine the political legitimacy of the Kurdish-led Autonomous Administration, which relies heavily on support from the U.S.-led coalition.
3. Regional Power Shifts
A U.S. withdrawal would create a power vacuum that regional and international actors like Iran, Russia, and Turkey could exploit. This shift could weaken Kurdish influence in the region and potentially dismantle their political project in northeastern Syria.
Strategy to Convince the U.S. to Stay
1. Highlighting the Kurds as Strategic Allies
Effective Partner Against Terrorism: Emphasize the SDF’s role in defeating ISIS and ensuring its non-resurgence. U.S. troop presence ensures stability in liberated areas and prevents ISIS from regaining power.
Low Cost for the U.S.: The Kurds carry out most ground operations, making the U.S. military footprint relatively low-cost compared to other conflicts.
2. Warning of Regional Risks
Boosting Russian and Iranian Influence: A withdrawal would allow Russia and Iran to fill the vacuum, threatening U.S. interests in the region.
Destabilization: A U.S. exit could escalate regional conflicts, especially involving Turkey, leading to new waves of refugees and global repercussions.
3. Appealing to Ethics and International Responsibility
Abandoning Allies: Stress that a withdrawal would be seen as betraying a key ally that fought on behalf of the free world against ISIS, damaging U.S. credibility as a defender of democracy and human rights.
Humanitarian Disaster: Highlight that a withdrawal could lead to major humanitarian crises, including forced displacement of Kurds and the destruction of local communities.
4. Diplomacy and Advocacy
Building Alliances in Congress: Kurds need to strengthen ties with U.S. lawmakers to increase pressure on the administration to sustain support.
Engaging Media and Think Tanks: Deliver well-crafted messages to U.S. media and strategic research centers about the importance of maintaining U.S. troops in Syria.
5. Long-Term Strategy
Strengthening Autonomous Administration: The Kurds must enhance governance in their areas to present a successful democratic model worth supporting.
Diversifying Allies: In case of U.S. insistence on withdrawal, the Kurds should seek alternative support from the European Union or form regional alliances to safeguard their achievements.
Conclusion
The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria represents an existential threat to the Kurds, necessitating a comprehensive strategy that highlights the value of the U.S.-Kurdish alliance and the protection of American interests in the region. The success of this strategy depends on balancing mutual interests with domestic and international political pressures in the U.S.
