Geostrategic experts analyze
The Deir ez-Zor region in eastern Syria is a crucial theater for geopolitical and military conflicts due to its strategic location near the Iraqi border and its rich natural resources, especially oil. The complexity of the situation is heightened by the presence of multiple actors vying for influence, including the United States, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and Iranian-backed militias. In this context, the question arises whether the U.S. and the SDF can reach an agreement to counter Iranian militias in the region.
U.S. Motivations
The United States has several strategic goals in Syria, including:
1. Limiting Iranian Influence: Iranian militias are a key tool for Tehran’s regional expansion, especially through a land corridor extending from Iran to Lebanon via Iraq and Syria. Deir ez-Zor is a critical link in this corridor.
2. Protecting Oil Interests: U.S. forces are stationed in areas containing major oil fields, such as the Al-Omar and Al-Tanak fields, as economic resources are vital for maintaining stability.
3. Counterterrorism Efforts: Although ISIS has been defeated as a territorial force, its remnants continue to pose a security threat.
SDF Motivations
The SDF, a U.S.-backed Kurdish-Arab alliance, faces significant challenges, including:
1. Threat from Iranian Militias: These militias oppose the SDF’s political aspirations and pose a direct threat to the security of areas under its control.
2. Maintaining U.S. Support: The SDF heavily relies on American military and political backing to sustain its role as a key force in northeastern Syria.
3. Ensuring Internal Stability: The SDF views reducing Iranian influence in Deir ez-Zor as crucial to easing sectarian and social tensions exploited by Tehran to bolster its presence.
Obstacles to Cooperation
Despite overlapping interests between the U.S. and the SDF, several challenges could hinder effective collaboration against Iranian militias:
1. Regional Balances: Targeting Iranian militias may provoke Russia, a key ally of the Syrian regime, potentially leading to widespread escalation.
2. Limited Military Capabilities: The SDF is not fully equipped to engage in open conflict with well-armed and logistically supported Iranian-backed militias.
3. Internal Challenges: The SDF faces local resistance in some Arab-majority areas, where it is viewed as an unwelcome authority, limiting its ability to secure sufficient local support for such operations.
Opportunities for Cooperation
Despite the challenges, the U.S. and SDF can build on several factors to achieve their shared objectives:
1. Indirect Tactics: Rather than direct confrontation, strategies such as precise airstrikes and supporting local anti-Iranian groups could be employed to weaken the militias.
2. Alliances with Local Forces: Collaborating with Arab tribes in Deir ez-Zor could strengthen the front against Iranian influence.
3. Enhancing SDF Capabilities: By increasing logistical and intelligence support to the SDF, the U.S. can better position the group to counter Iranian influence effectively.
Conclusion
The possibility of U.S.-SDF cooperation to eliminate Iranian militias in Deir ez-Zor hinges on striking a delicate balance between shared goals and regional and local challenges. While mutual interests provide a solid foundation for collaboration, the success of this partnership requires a comprehensive strategic vision that accounts for the complex dynamics of the Syrian conflict.
