News and analysis: Geostrategic Studies Team
Israel's new Foreign Minister, Gideon Sa'ar, called for strengthening ties with Kurdish and Druze communities in the Middle East. During a ceremony marking his assumption of office from his predecessor, Yisrael Katz, Sa'ar outlined his vision, stating that "minorities in the region will need to unite." He added, "The Kurdish people are a great nation, one of the great nations without political independence. They are our natural allies." Sa'ar described the Kurds as "victims of Iranian and Turkish oppression" and emphasized that Israel "must extend its hand and strengthen its relationship with them (...). This has political and security dimensions."
News analysis
The topic of potential Israeli support for the Kurds in Syria, particularly the "Syrian Democratic Forces" (SDF) and the Autonomous Administration in Northeast Syria, has raised numerous questions within political and academic circles. This issue is tied to various historical and geostrategic factors, as the Kurds are one of the largest ethnic minorities in the region and have long suffered from a lack of regional support for their aspirations. In this context, Israel emerges as a regional power with growing interests in the Middle East and might have motivations to strengthen its ties with Syrian Kurds to achieve strategic gains.
Historical Background of Israeli-Kurdish Relations:
Israel’s relationship with the Kurds in the Middle East is not new; there is evidence that Israel covertly supported the Kurds in Iraq as far back as the 1960s, providing them with financial and intelligence support in their struggle against the Iraqi government. At that time, Israel’s goal was to weaken the Arab coalition surrounding it and to enhance its influence in the region by supporting ethnic nationalist movements that could destabilize its adversarial neighbors.
Israeli Motives for Supporting the Syrian Kurds:
1. Weakening Iranian Influence:
Iranian influence in Syria is seen as one of the greatest challenges to Israel in the region. Israel views Iran’s presence in Syria as a growing security threat, particularly given Tehran’s support for Hezbollah and other anti-Israel factions. Israel might see an opportunity to counter Iranian influence by supporting the Syrian Kurds, as Iran and its allies are heavily involved in efforts to control Syrian territories, some of which are near Kurdish areas.
2. Countering Turkish Influence:
Israel-Turkey relations have been increasingly strained, although the two countries maintain robust economic ties. Turkey views the Kurds as a significant threat to its national security, so any Israeli support for the Syrian Kurds could be a way to exert pressure on Ankara. This is especially relevant as Turkey seeks to build influence in northern Syria and impose a “safe zone” to prevent Kurdish control there.
3. Taking Advantage of the Security Vacuum in Syria:
Syria has become an arena for regional and international conflicts, which makes it easier for external powers like Israel to intervene and search for potential allies. In this context, Israel may see the Kurds as viable allies in a sensitive area. Israel could benefit from Syria’s complicated political landscape to achieve its security goals in the absence of strong central control by the Syrian regime.
4. The U.S. Factor:
The Syrian Kurds have a strong relationship with the United States, which has provided them with military and political support in their fight against ISIS. Israel might view this U.S.-backed ally as an opportunity to strengthen its own ties with the Kurds, aiming to align strategically with American policy in Syria and to bolster its alliances with U.S.-supported forces.
Potential Challenges to Israeli Support for Syrian Kurds:
While Israel has several incentives to consider supporting Syrian Kurds, there are significant challenges that could hinder the success of such support:
1. Regional Reactions:
Open Israeli support for the Kurds could lead to negative reactions from neighboring countries like Iraq, Iran, and Turkey, which view Kurdish support in any country as a threat to their national unity. These states might increase their cooperation to counter any potential Israeli-Kurdish influence, complicating Israel’s regional relations.
2. Complex Relations with Turkey:
As previously mentioned, Turkey strongly opposes any kind of support for the Kurds, viewing the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) as an extension of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party), which Turkey classifies as a terrorist organization. Israeli support for the Syrian Kurds might lead to a major escalation in relations with Turkey, potentially impacting the military and economic cooperation that exists between the two countries.
3. Limited Israeli Influence in Syria:
Despite its proximity to Syria, Israel’s direct influence on the Syrian stage remains limited due to the multiple actors controlling the ground, such as the Syrian regime, Russia, and Iran. This means that Israel’s capacity to provide effective support to the Kurds could be constrained on the ground.
Possible Scenarios of Support:
Israeli support for the Syrian Kurds could take various forms, which can be summarized in the following scenarios:
1. Indirect Military Support: Israel might provide limited, covert support to the Kurds, such as intelligence sharing or military training through secret channels. This scenario would allow Israel to support the Kurds without drawing public reactions.
2. Political and Media Support: Israel might choose to support the Kurdish cause in international forums and defend Kurdish rights through international organizations and media, which could help improve the Kurdish image and increase pressure on countries that seek to oppress them.
3. Security Coordination Against Iranian Influence: Israel might coordinate with the Syrian Kurds to undermine Iranian influence in Syria, especially in areas where Iran or Hezbollah are present. Such coordination could be carried out secretly and out of the public eye to avoid negative reactions from neighboring states.
4. Economic Support: If stability were to be achieved in Kurdish areas in Syria, there could be an opportunity to economically develop these regions, either through Israeli companies or via international cooperation mediated by Israel.
Conclusion:
Based on the above factors, the possibility of Israel moving to support the Syrian Kurds, including the Autonomous Administration and the Syrian Democratic Forces, largely depends on the developments of the regional situation in Syria and Israel’s need for non-traditional allies in the region. Although challenges might prevent Israel from providing overt and substantial support to the Kurds, strategic interests may open the door to limited forms of support, particularly amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran and strained relations with Turkey.
