Report prepared by: Geostrategic Studies Team
Syria serves as a focal point for regional and international powers, including Turkey and Israel. Both actors have differing goals in Syria, with a complex relationship that balances limited cooperation and sharp rivalry. While Turkey and Israel are not currently in direct conflict, overlapping objectives and interests in Syria may lead to tensions or even indirect confrontations.
1. Turkey's Interests in Syria:
Turkey's primary focus revolves around:
National Security: Preventing the establishment of an independent Kurdish entity near its borders, which it perceives as an existential threat. Military operations such as "Euphrates Shield" and "Olive Branch" reflect this priority.
Regional Stability: Turkey seeks to stabilize areas under its control in northern Syria to prevent refugee inflows and curb the influence of Kurdish militias.
Geopolitical Influence: Turkey aims to maintain its influence in Syria, either through supporting opposition factions or participating in negotiation platforms like the Astana and Sochi processes.
2. Israel's Interests in Syria:
Israel’s priorities include:
National Security: Countering Iranian influence in Syria and targeting weapon shipments to Hezbollah.
Border Security: Ensuring stability in the occupied Golan Heights and avoiding threats close to its borders.
Regional Power Balance: Limiting Iranian and Turkish influence to preserve its strategic dominance in the region.
3. Overlapping and Contradictory Interests:
Iranian Presence: While Turkey opposes Iranian influence, its primary focus is on countering Kurdish militias. Israel, on the other hand, does not view Turkey’s presence as a direct threat but sees Turkish moves against Iran as potentially beneficial.
Northern Syria: Turkey's military presence in northern Syria could clash with Israeli interests if it destabilizes the region or allows hostile factions to expand, especially if Turkey allies with groups that might threaten Israel in the future.
4. Potential Conflict Scenarios:
A. Indirect Confrontation: Increased rivalry could lead to indirect clashes via proxies, with Turkey supporting factions for its strategic interests and Israel targeting those factions if linked to Iran or Hezbollah.
B. Limited Military Escalation: If Turkey takes actions perceived as a threat to Israel—such as enabling extremist groups to expand near the Golan—Israel may launch limited airstrikes to neutralize the perceived threat.
C. Tactical Alignment: If interests align (e.g., curbing Iranian influence), there might be indirect coordination or mutual avoidance of conflict.
5. Factors Restraining Escalation:
Economic and Political Ties: Despite political tensions, Turkey and Israel maintain economic relations, especially in energy, which act as a buffer against escalation.
U.S. Role: The U.S. serves as a mediator between the two, given its alliance with Israel and its NATO partnership with Turkey.
Regional Balance: Both sides may avoid antagonizing one another while facing other challenges such as Russian and Iranian influence.
6. Strategic Recommendations:
For Turkey: Ankara should carefully manage its relations with armed factions in Syria to avoid provoking Israel. Additionally, it can capitalize on shared interests with Israel in countering Iran to neutralize tensions.
For Israel: Tel Aviv could enhance indirect communication channels with Turkey to prevent misunderstandings and escalation while continuing efforts to contain Iranian influence.
Conclusion:
A Turkish-Israeli conflict in Syria is not inevitable, but it remains a possibility amidst ongoing interest clashes. The future will depend on both sides' ability to manage disputes and overlapping priorities through diplomatic channels and implicit security coordination. Without such efforts, the likelihood of indirect escalation in Syria's complex theater may increase.
