Report prepared by: Geostrategic Studies Team
Following the takeover of Damascus by Hay’at al-Tahrir led by Ahmad al-Shar’a, a critical question arises regarding the future of regional competition between Saudi Arabia and Turkey over shaping the new Syrian regime. While Riyadh seeks to bring Syria back into the Arab fold, Ankara is determined to maintain its influence, relying on its broader regional strategy. The key question remains: Will the Arab states succeed in aligning the new Syrian leadership with their interests, or will Turkey continue to dominate the political and ideological direction of the new regime?
1. Saudi Arabia vs. Turkey: A Strategic Rivalry Over Syria
Syria has long been a battleground for competing regional interests. Both Saudi Arabia and Turkey have strategic stakes in determining the country's political trajectory.
Saudi Arabia’s Position: Reintegration Into the Arab Sphere
Riyadh sees the new leadership in Damascus as an opportunity to curb Iranian and Turkish influence.
The kingdom is likely to use its financial and political leverage to integrate Syria back into the Arab League and establish a government aligned with Gulf interests.
Saudi Arabia’s main goal is to stabilize Syria under a Sunni-led government while preventing Turkish and Iranian hegemony.
Turkey’s Position: Maintaining Strategic Influence
Turkey has been a key player in Syria, supporting opposition groups and maintaining a military presence in northern Syria.
Ankara is unlikely to relinquish its influence and may use its military, economic, and ideological ties to maintain control over the new Syrian leadership.
If the new government shifts toward the Arab sphere, Turkey may employ pressure tactics, including economic influence and political maneuvering within Islamist factions.
2. Ahmad al-Shar’a: Between the Saudi and Turkish Models
Ahmad al-Shar’a’s ideological and political orientation will be a key factor in determining Syria’s alliances.
Will He Align With Saudi Arabia?
His Sunni Islamic discourse is more aligned with the Gulf’s religious and political framework.
Saudi Arabia could offer strong financial and political support in exchange for Syria distancing itself from Turkey and Iran.
Riyadh may seek to establish a moderate Islamic governance model that counterbalances Turkey’s influence.
Or Is the Turkish Model More Appealing?
The political experience of Turkey’s ruling AK Party, led by Erdoğan, may serve as a model for al-Shar’a if he seeks an Islamist yet pragmatic political system.
Turkey has a well-established strategy for engaging with Islamist factions and could attempt to shape Syria’s political landscape accordingly.
Ankara’s military and logistical influence in northern Syria may serve as a pressure tool to keep Syria within its sphere.
3. Can Saudi Arabia Successfully Pull Syria Into Its Orbit?
Riyadh’s success depends on its ability to offer tangible benefits, such as economic aid and diplomatic backing to lift international sanctions on Syria.
The broader Arab diplomatic effort will be crucial in ensuring Syria’s reintegration into the regional system.
However, Turkey is unlikely to relinquish its strategic foothold without resistance, making a complete Saudi takeover difficult.
4. Possible Scenarios
1. Saudi Arabia Gains the Upper Hand
If Saudi Arabia provides strong economic and political guarantees, Damascus may align more closely with Riyadh and the Arab world, reducing Turkish influence.
2. Turkey Retains Its Influence
If Ankara successfully navigates the situation, it may continue to shape Syria’s future, ensuring that Damascus remains within its ideological and strategic framework.
3. A Balanced Approach
Ahmad al-Shar’a may adopt a pragmatic stance, maintaining ties with both Riyadh and Ankara to maximize benefits while avoiding excessive dependence on either power.
Conclusion
The Saudi-Turkish struggle over Syria following the rise of Hay’at al-Tahrir and Ahmad al-Shar’a reflects broader geopolitical shifts in the Middle East. While the new leadership’s religious discourse may be closer to Saudi Arabia, Turkey’s entrenched influence on the ground makes it a formidable player in shaping Syria’s future. Ultimately, the balance of power will determine whether Damascus leans toward the Arab fold or remains within Ankara’s sphere of influence.
