The Kurdish and regional public eagerly await an anticipated speech by Kurdish leader Abdullah Öcalan, scheduled for February 15, 2025. This address comes amid reports from Turkish and Kurdish media about the launch of a new “peace process” between Öcalan and the Turkish state.
This speech raises crucial questions about its possible content, its potential impact on the long-standing conflict between the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and Ankara, and whether Öcalan will call for disarmament in exchange for peace. Will the PKK and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) comply with such a call? Or will he propose a gradual step-by-step peace process, considering the deep mistrust Kurds have toward the Turkish government?
This analysis seeks to anticipate the key points Öcalan might address while evaluating potential scenarios based on current political realities and historical positions.
1. Political Context and the Strategic Timing of the Speech
Öcalan’s speech comes at a critical time for Kurds, Turkey, and the wider region. Since his capture and imprisonment in 1999, Öcalan has remained a central figure in the Kurdish issue despite his near-total isolation since 2019, when his lawyers and visitors were denied access to him.
In Turkey, political and economic turmoil, coupled with increasing polarization, may push the government to seek new strategies for stability. Meanwhile, the Kurdish movement is facing mounting pressure: the SDF in Syria is dealing with threats from both Turkey and ISIS, while the PKK continues to face Turkish military operations in northern Iraq and Syria. Given these factors, Öcalan’s speech could be a defining moment for Kurdish-Turkish relations.
2. Possible Scenarios for Öcalan’s Speech
1. Calling for Disarmament in Exchange for Peace: A Bold Move or Political Strategy?
One possibility is that Öcalan might revive a stance similar to that of the 2013–2015 peace process when he called for an end to armed struggle in exchange for political and cultural rights for Kurds. If he explicitly calls on the PKK and SDF to disarm, this could indicate a secret negotiation between him and Ankara to restart peace talks.
But the key question remains: Will the PKK accept this proposal?
The PKK has historically maintained a rigid ideological stance and has rejected previous calls for disarmament without concrete political concessions. Therefore, the position of the PKK’s military leadership in the Qandil Mountains will be crucial in determining the feasibility of such an appeal.
2. A "Step-for-Step" Peace Process: A More Gradual Approach?
Given the long history of mistrust between Kurds and the Turkish state, Öcalan may propose a phased peace process instead of immediate disarmament. This could involve Turkey taking initial steps such as:Reinstating formal peace talks, involving internationally recognized Kurdish representatives.
Improving the conditions of Kurdish political prisoners, including easing Öcalan’s isolation.
Expanding cultural and political rights for Kurds, such as increasing Kurdish language use in media and public institutions.
In response, the PKK might be expected to take steps like halting attacks inside Turkey or scaling down its military operations in Qandil and Syria.
This model could be more realistic than an outright call for disarmament, but it requires political commitment from both sides, which remains uncertain given past failures.
3. Öcalan’s Stance on the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): Endorsement or Abandonment?
The SDF, primarily composed of the Kurdish YPG, is a major actor in the Kurdish struggle and is engaged in a complex conflict—facing both Turkish military incursions and threats from jihadist groups.
If Öcalan calls for ending hostilities with Turkey, this could have direct consequences for the SDF’s future. A request for the SDF to restructure itself and distance itself from the PKK could signal a U.S.-Turkish agreement regarding Kurdish affairs in Syria.
However, such a move would face resistance from Kurdish military leaders in Syria, who view themselves as independent from Öcalan and the PKK’s command structure.
3. Potential Reactions from Key Stakeholders
1. Turkish Government: A Conditional Acceptance or Political Maneuvering?
If Öcalan presents a serious peace initiative, Ankara may use it to bolster its domestic and international image. A new peace process could ease Western criticism of Turkey’s Kurdish policies. However, the response of Turkey’s military establishment—historically preferring security measures over negotiations—will be a decisive factor.
2. PKK’s Reaction: Internal Divisions?
The PKK is internally divided between:A pragmatic faction, which may welcome negotiations if they promise real political gains.
A hardline faction, which considers any peace process without Kurdish autonomy a surrender.
Thus, Öcalan’s speech could deepen divisions within the PKK, potentially leading some factions to reject his proposals and escalate hostilities instead.
3. Kurdish Public Opinion: Hope and Skepticism
Many Kurds may see Öcalan’s call for peace as a rare opportunity to end decades of bloodshed. However, past betrayals and broken agreements may fuel skepticism. If there are no concrete international guarantees, many Kurds may hesitate to trust the Turkish government’s commitment to any peace deal.
4. Conclusion: A Turning Point or Another Chapter in the Conflict?
Abdullah Öcalan’s speech on February 15, 2025, is set to be a historic moment. If he genuinely advocates for a peaceful resolution, it could mark a new chapter in the Kurdish struggle. However, the success of any peace initiative depends on both sides' willingness to make real concessions and on international actors ensuring accountability.
Between anticipation and doubt, the fundamental question remains: Will this speech be the beginning of a real transformation, or just another episode in the long Kurdish-Turkish conflict?
- Geostrategic Studies Team / "Future Foresight" Department
