Position estimation. Geostrategic experts analyze
1. Why Saudi Arabia? Between Neutrality and Strategic Importance
Saudi Arabia's selection as the host for U.S.-Russia talks on Ukraine is not coincidental but reflects shifting global power dynamics. While traditionally allied with the U.S., Saudi Arabia has cultivated strong ties with Russia, particularly in energy and defense sectors. This balanced position makes it an acceptable mediator for both sides, as it cannot be easily classified as biased toward either party.
Furthermore, as a key player in "OPEC+," Saudi Arabia holds significant influence over global energy markets. This is especially relevant given Western sanctions on Russia, which have pushed Moscow to rely more on energy sales to China and India. In this sense, Saudi Arabia may serve as an economic mediator as much as a diplomatic one, particularly if energy and economic issues become part of the negotiations.
2. What Does Each Party Aim to Achieve?
The United States: The Biden administration, or a potential future U.S. leadership, seeks to reduce the financial and political cost of supporting Ukraine. With growing domestic pressure to prioritize competition with China, any agreement that de-escalates the Ukraine conflict would allow Washington to refocus resources elsewhere.
Russia: Moscow understands that prolonging the war is economically and militarily draining, even though it has managed to withstand Western sanctions. Putin may seek U.S. concessions, such as sanctions relief or de facto recognition of Russian control over annexed territories.
Saudi Arabia: Hosting these talks strengthens Saudi Arabia’s global diplomatic role, positioning it as a bridge between East and West. A successful mediation could also increase its leverage in other geopolitical matters, such as the war in Yemen or normalization with Israel.
3. Could We See a Biden-Putin Summit?
If these negotiations lead to a partial breakthrough, a direct meeting between Presidents Biden and Putin could be on the table. However, this would depend on both sides’ willingness to make meaningful compromises. Russia wants security guarantees, particularly regarding NATO expansion, while the U.S. will not easily accept any deal that undermines Ukrainian sovereignty.
Still, if common ground is found—such as a ceasefire or prisoner exchange—it could pave the way for high-level discussions.
4. The European Perspective: Fear of Marginalization
Despite being the most directly affected by the war, European countries appear to be sidelined from these direct talks. This is causing anxiety in Berlin and Paris, as the European Union prefers a diplomatic resolution but fears Washington may cut a deal with Moscow that compromises European security.
France and Germany will likely push to be involved in subsequent negotiations. However, if a U.S.-Russia understanding emerges without European input, it could lead to cracks in the Western alliance—especially if some EU nations perceive Washington as prioritizing its own interests over collective security.
5. Ukraine’s Dilemma: Uncertain Future
For Kyiv, any negotiations conducted without Ukrainian participation pose an existential threat. The Ukrainian government heavily relies on U.S. and European support, but it also knows that such support is not guaranteed indefinitely, especially if U.S. leadership changes.
Ukraine may push for direct participation in talks, but it faces a difficult choice: accepting a compromise could spark domestic backlash and accusations of territorial concessions, while outright rejecting negotiations might isolate Ukraine if Washington shifts its stance.
Conclusion: Are We Seeing the Beginning of the End of the War?
The talks in Saudi Arabia are not decisive, but they could be a stepping stone toward ending the conflict. Their success depends on whether all sides are willing to make concessions—something that remains uncertain. However, the very fact that these discussions are happening in Riyadh highlights a significant shift in global diplomacy, where non-Western countries are playing a greater role in resolving international conflicts.
If this trend continues, we may be entering a new era where global power is no longer solely dictated by Western nations but increasingly shaped by multipolar negotiations.
