News and analysis: Geostrategic Studies Team
In armed conflicts, violent incidents rarely occur randomly; they are often part of a broader political or military strategy aimed at achieving specific objectives. The bombing in Manbij must be analyzed within its regional context, where multiple actors compete for influence. Identifying the primary beneficiaries of this event is crucial to understanding its implications.
Political and Security Context
Manbij, located in northern Syria, is one of the most strategically significant areas due to its location between Turkish-controlled regions, areas under the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and the Syrian regime. Since the SDF took control of the city in 2016 after expelling ISIS, Turkey and its allied armed groups have continuously sought to destabilize the region.
Who Benefits the Most?
1- Turkey and Its Proxy Mercenary Groups
Turkey and the Turkish-backed Turkmen armed groups are the primary beneficiaries of this bombing, for the following reasons:
Deepening divisions between Kurds and Arabs: Turkey strategically aims to fuel ethnic and sectarian tensions in northern Syria. By sowing discord between the Kurdish and Arab communities, Turkey seeks to weaken the region’s social fabric, making it easier to exert control.
Turning public opinion against the SDF: The bombing may be part of a broader propaganda campaign designed to discredit the SDF, either by portraying it as incapable of maintaining security or by indirectly blaming it for the attack.
Diverting attention from Turkey’s war crimes in Kobani: Just days before the bombing, Turkey committed serious war crimes in Kobani, including targeting civilians, bombing the Tishrin Dam, and using white phosphorus against civilians. A large-scale attack in Manbij could serve as a distraction, shifting media and political focus away from these atrocities.
Justifying further Turkish military intervention: Turkey has consistently sought new pretexts for expanding its military operations in northern Syria. Such bombings create an atmosphere conducive to increased military action, whether through direct intervention or further support for its proxy militias.
Secondary Beneficiaries
Apart from Turkey, other actors may indirectly benefit from the attack:
1. The Syrian regime: Despite its tensions with Turkey, Damascus views instability in SDF-controlled areas as an opportunity to regain more territory. Any event that weakens the SDF plays into the hands of the Assad regime.
2. ISIS sleeper cells: Although significantly weakened, ISIS still has the capability to carry out terrorist operations. Such attacks serve to remind the world of its presence and maintain relevance in the region’s security landscape.
Expected Consequences
1. Increased security tensions in Manbij, potentially leading to further retaliatory attacks or escalations in military operations.
2. Greater justification for Turkish intervention in northern Syria, either through direct military involvement or by strengthening local proxy forces.
3. Heightened international pressure on the SDF, especially if Turkey manages to manipulate the narrative effectively.
4. Further fragmentation between Kurdish and Arab communities, complicating any attempts at political or social reconciliation.
Conclusion
The Manbij bombing is not an isolated incident but rather a politically and strategically significant event. Turkey and its allied armed groups are the primary beneficiaries, as it serves their broader objectives of destabilizing the region, manipulating public perception, and justifying further intervention. The key question remains: how can local and regional actors counter these strategies and prevent such attacks from being exploited for external agendas?
