Hot Issues: Geostrategic Studies Team
With the major shifts in Syria following Ahmad Al-Shara’s successful unification of most Arab Sunni military and political forces, the Kurds face a strategic challenge: uniting their political and military factions to counter increasing marginalization and regional instability. While the Kurdish-led Autonomous Administration in northeastern Syria remains outside Damascus’ control, Sweida also maintains its independence due to Druze mobilization. Meanwhile, Syria’s coastal regions face an identity crisis as the new government in Damascus portrays them as remnants of the previous regime. In this rapidly evolving landscape, how can the Kurds navigate the challenges? What strategies are required to ensure their survival as a key player in Syria’s future?
The Kurdish Reality in Post-Shara Syria
The Kurds in Syria have experienced fluctuating periods of cooperation and conflict with the central government. During the civil war, they established an autonomous administration backed militarily by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and politically supported by the U.S. However, as Damascus regains political and military strength, the Kurds find themselves in a precarious situation that demands a strategic reassessment.
1. Political Marginalization and Internal Challenges
Despite being a significant component of Syria’s demographics, the Kurds have historically faced political marginalization, which has intensified under the new political order. Several factors contribute to this:
Internal Divisions: Political fragmentation between the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and factions affiliated with the Kurdish National Council (ENKS) has weakened the Kurdish negotiating position.
Complex Regional Relations: Kurdish factions are entangled in regional dynamics, with conflicting interests involving Turkey, the U.S., and Iran, making internal unity difficult.
Lack of Strong International Recognition: While the U.S. supports the SDF, this backing remains conditional on broader geopolitical considerations, leaving the Kurds vulnerable to shifting alliances.
2. Military Risks and Regional Balances
Militarily, the Kurdish forces face growing threats, particularly as U.S. troops gradually withdraw and Turkey eyes further incursions into northern Syria. However, if the Kurds can consolidate their forces and form a more cohesive military structure, they may be able to counterbalance these risks.
Strategic Options for the Kurds
1. Political Unity as a Priority
To safeguard their political and administrative achievements, the Kurds must prioritize internal unity through:
A Comprehensive Internal Dialogue between Kurdish factions to bridge political gaps and formulate a unified strategy.
Building Alliances Beyond the Kurdish Sphere by cooperating with moderate Arab factions, Druze forces in Sweida, and coastal groups searching for a new political identity.
International Pressure and Diplomacy to secure guarantees from major powers, particularly the U.S. and Russia, for sustained political and military autonomy.
2. Strengthening Military Capabilities Independently
Restructuring the SDF to include broader Syrian components, transforming it into a national rather than an exclusively Kurdish force.
Improving Relations with Regional Powers by engaging in pragmatic diplomacy with Turkey to de-escalate tensions and redefine security concerns.
Exploring New Military Partnerships, possibly with Russian forces or negotiating terms with Damascus to preserve Kurdish self-rule.
3. Leveraging the Regional Situation
Amid Syria’s shifting dynamics, the Kurds can capitalize on regional instability through:
Strengthening Ties with the U.S. to ensure continued, albeit limited, support and use American leverage against Damascus.
Exploiting Internal Divisions in the Syrian Government to push for political concessions from Damascus, particularly as the coastal and southern regions remain unstable.
Forging Alliances with Moderate Syrian Opposition Groups to negotiate a new framework for self-administration within a federal or decentralized Syrian state.
Conclusion
As Ahmad Al-Shara’s government consolidates its power over much of Syria, the Kurds stand at a crossroads. Their only viable option is to adopt a unified strategy that balances internal cohesion, regional alliances, and international support. Without such a comprehensive approach, the risk of marginalization and loss of autonomy will only grow in the face of an evolving and increasingly centralized Syrian state.
