Turkish Event. Geostrategic Studies Team
Turkey, under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is experiencing a sharp political shift that threatens its democratic aspirations. Through mass arrests of political opponents, suppression of press freedoms, and increasing authoritarian control, Erdogan appears determined to solidify his rule. The recent arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu—considered Erdogan’s strongest rival in the 2028 presidential elections—serves as a stark reminder of Turkey’s democratic backsliding. This article explores the broader implications of Erdogan's authoritarian grip, the geopolitical consequences of Turkey’s trajectory, and the potential for dynastic rule.
1. The Arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu: A Final Blow to Turkey’s Opposition
Ekrem Imamoglu emerged as a powerful opposition figure after his landmark victory in Istanbul’s 2019 mayoral election, defeating the ruling AKP’s candidate despite attempts to annul the election. His arrest in March 2025 on charges of corruption and alleged ties to terrorist organizations signals Erdogan’s commitment to eliminating serious political threats.
This move mirrors the fate of other opposition leaders, such as Selahattin Demirtas, the pro-Kurdish politician who remains imprisoned under similar accusations. By removing Imamoglu from the political scene, Erdogan ensures that the 2028 election remains under his control, further eroding Turkey’s already fragile democratic institutions. The timing of Imamoglu’s arrest, just days before his expected presidential candidacy announcement, suggests a deliberate strategy to prevent any challenge to Erdogan’s prolonged rule.
2. Targeting Activists and Journalists: The Silencing of Dissent
Beyond politicians, Erdogan’s government has systematically cracked down on journalists, activists, and academics critical of the regime. Since the failed coup attempt in 2016, Turkey has imposed a state of emergency that led to mass arrests, media shutdowns, and the dismissal of thousands of government employees.
Press freedom has been severely curtailed, with independent newspapers forced to close, TV channels censored, and social media platforms heavily monitored. Even casual criticism of Erdogan on platforms like Twitter or Facebook can result in arrest. This climate of fear stifles public discourse, making it nearly impossible for opposition voices to organize or challenge the government effectively.
Such repression has drawn international condemnation, but Erdogan’s government remains steadfast in its efforts to eliminate dissent, further cementing its autocratic rule.
3. Turkey’s Geopolitical Future: A Shift Away from the West
As Erdogan tightens his grip domestically, Turkey’s foreign policy is undergoing a significant transformation. Once a candidate for European Union membership, Turkey’s democratic backsliding has effectively halted its accession process. Relations with Western allies—particularly the United States and NATO—have become strained, with growing concerns over Turkey’s human rights record and its increasingly aggressive regional interventions.
Instead, Erdogan has sought closer ties with Russia and China, adopting a foreign policy strategy that prioritizes economic and military cooperation with authoritarian regimes. Turkey’s involvement in conflicts in Syria, Libya, and the Caucasus further underscores its shift toward an assertive, independent geopolitical stance that often puts it at odds with its traditional allies.
This reorientation raises concerns about Turkey’s long-term strategic direction. If Ankara continues down this path, it risks diplomatic isolation, economic consequences, and potential conflicts with Western powers.
4. Dynastic Rule? The Rising Influence of Bilal Erdogan
Speculation has been growing about Erdogan’s plans for succession, with many pointing to his son, Bilal Erdogan, as a possible heir to his political empire. While Turkey’s constitution does not allow for hereditary rule, Erdogan’s control over the judiciary and legislature could pave the way for a de facto family dynasty.
Bilal Erdogan, who has significant business and political ties, has been linked to corruption scandals but continues to enjoy his father’s protection. If Erdogan seeks to pass power to his son, he will likely face resistance from within the ruling AKP, as well as from the broader Turkish public, who may not support such blatant nepotism.
However, given Erdogan’s history of consolidating power, manipulating legal frameworks, and suppressing opposition, a transition to dynastic rule—while unlikely in a conventional sense—is not entirely out of the question.
5. Is Turkey Entering a Dark Era?
Turkey is at a critical juncture. The continued suppression of democratic institutions, judicial independence, and political opposition suggests a future where Erdogan’s rule becomes increasingly authoritarian. The potential consequences include:
1. Internal Unrest – Public frustration could lead to mass protests, similar to the Gezi Park demonstrations of 2013.
2. International Sanctions – Western nations may impose economic and political sanctions in response to Turkey’s human rights violations.
3. Political Fragmentation – Growing discontent within the AKP could lead to internal divisions, weakening Erdogan’s grip on power.
Despite these risks, Erdogan’s control over the military, police, and judiciary makes it difficult for any immediate challenge to his rule to succeed. If opposition forces fail to unite, Turkey may continue its slide into autocracy for years to come.
Conclusion: Turkey’s Democratic Future Hangs in the Balance
Turkey is on the verge of a political transformation that could define its future for decades. Erdogan’s suppression of opposition voices, control over state institutions, and shifting alliances suggest that the country is moving away from democratic governance toward a more authoritarian model.
The key questions remain: Can Turkey reclaim its democratic aspirations, or is it destined for prolonged autocratic rule? Will Erdogan attempt to establish a political dynasty, and if so, will the Turkish people accept it?
The answers to these questions will shape not only Turkey’s domestic politics but also its role on the global stage. The coming years will determine whether the country can reverse its democratic decline—or whether it will descend into a dark and uncertain future.
