Turkish Event. Geostrategic Studies Team
The Kurdish issue has long been one of the most complex and contentious topics in Turkish politics, entangled with identity struggles, political rights, and security concerns. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's rule, the Kurdish file has evolved into a strategic bargaining chip, used to secure both domestic and regional gains. This approach is characterized by a dual policy: on one hand, Ankara hints at the possibility of dialogue with Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK); on the other, the Turkish military continues its extensive operations against Kurdish forces in Syria and Iraq, committing numerous human rights violations.
This contradiction raises pressing questions: Is Erdoğan genuinely seeking a resolution to the Kurdish issue, or is he merely buying time to advance his political agenda? More specifically, is he aiming to pacify the Kurdish front while eliminating domestic political opposition to consolidate his grip on power?
This article will analyze Erdoğan’s strategic maneuvering regarding the Kurdish issue, its connection to Turkey’s internal political landscape, and the broader implications for Turkish-Kurdish relations.
Turkey’s Dual Approach: Dialogue as a Tool for Political Manipulation
Successive Turkish governments have used the Kurdish issue as both a tool for domestic legitimacy and an instrument of geopolitical maneuvering. At times, Ankara has adopted a seemingly conciliatory approach, as seen in the early years of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) when minor cultural rights were granted to Kurds, such as the introduction of Kurdish-language media and limited education reforms. This culminated in the so-called "peace process" between 2013 and 2015, during which the government engaged in negotiations with Öcalan.
However, this phase of dialogue proved to be a tactical move rather than a sincere effort to resolve the issue. When Erdoğan and his party sensed that continuing negotiations would not serve their interests, they swiftly abandoned the process. The collapse of peace talks in 2015 led to one of the most intense military crackdowns in recent Turkish history, with entire Kurdish-majority towns like Cizre and Sur in Diyarbakir subjected to brutal state violence.
Today, a similar dynamic is at play. The Turkish government is once again suggesting the possibility of engagement with Öcalan, but this rhetoric coincides with ongoing military operations against the Kurds in Syria. Instead of seeking a sustainable resolution, Ankara appears to be using the prospect of dialogue to create divisions within Kurdish political circles and weaken their collective bargaining power.
Using the Öcalan File to Divide and Weaken the Kurds
Whenever Erdoğan faces political pressure, either internally or externally, leaks about potential negotiations with Öcalan tend to surface. However, these leaks are rarely followed by substantive actions and instead serve as tactical distractions.
For example, in the lead-up to Turkey’s 2019 municipal elections, Erdoğan’s administration briefly allowed Öcalan’s lawyers to visit him after years of solitary confinement. This move was widely seen as an attempt to persuade Kurdish voters to refrain from supporting opposition candidates in key cities like Istanbul and Ankara. However, once the elections concluded and the AKP suffered a historic defeat in major metropolitan areas, the government returned to its policy of isolating Öcalan and intensifying military operations against Kurdish forces.
Thus, the Turkish state’s periodic invocation of dialogue with Öcalan is not a sign of genuine willingness to resolve the Kurdish issue but a calculated effort to manipulate Kurdish political movements and neutralize their influence.
Suppressing Political Opposition Through Kurdish Pacification
One compelling theory behind Erdoğan’s recent Kurdish strategy is that he seeks to temporarily pacify the Kurdish front to focus on eliminating other domestic political threats, particularly from the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the opposition bloc known as the "Table of Six."
In recent years, Erdoğan has faced mounting challenges, including economic decline, soaring inflation, and growing public dissatisfaction. Under these circumstances, prolonging military conflict with the Kurds may be politically costly. As a result, signaling a potential dialogue with Öcalan could serve as a strategic distraction while Erdoğan directs his efforts toward dismantling opposition groups, imprisoning political dissidents, and altering electoral laws to ensure his continued rule.
Moreover, the Kurdish vote plays a critical role in determining electoral outcomes in Turkey. The pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) holds significant influence, particularly in major cities where Kurdish votes could tilt the balance in favor of the opposition. By floating the idea of negotiations with Öcalan, Erdoğan might be attempting to neutralize Kurdish electoral power, either by luring some Kurdish factions into supporting him or by fostering internal divisions that weaken the overall Kurdish political movement.
The Contradiction of Military Aggression Against Syrian Kurds
While Erdoğan's government speaks of dialogue with Öcalan, the Turkish military continues its aggressive campaign against Kurdish groups in Syria. Turkey's operations against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which Ankara views as an extension of the PKK, have escalated in recent months, with drone strikes targeting key Kurdish leaders and artillery shelling damaging civilian infrastructure in cities like Kobani, Tal Rifaat, and Ain Issa.
This glaring contradiction reveals the hypocrisy of Turkish policy. If Erdoğan were truly committed to a peaceful resolution of the Kurdish issue, he would not be simultaneously waging a relentless military campaign against Kurdish forces in neighboring countries. Instead, the continued attacks on Kurdish regions indicate that Turkey’s strategy remains centered on military suppression rather than political accommodation.
Is Erdoğan Serious About Resolving the Kurdish Issue?
Given Erdoğan’s historical record, it is unlikely that he is genuinely interested in solving the Kurdish issue in a fair and inclusive manner. A serious commitment to resolution would require concrete steps such as:
Ending military operations against Kurdish forces in Syria and Iraq
Lifting the political bans on Kurdish parties and releasing imprisoned Kurdish politicians
Granting meaningful political and cultural rights to Kurdish citizens within Turkey
Engaging in a transparent dialogue process that includes multiple Kurdish factions, not just Öcalan
However, none of these steps appear to be on Erdoğan’s agenda. Instead, his administration continues to prioritize military interventions and political manipulation over genuine conflict resolution. Erdoğan’s engagement with the Kurdish issue remains purely instrumental—he deploys it when necessary to consolidate his rule and abandons it when it no longer serves his interests.
Conclusion
Turkey’s approach to the Kurdish issue under Erdoğan is a clear example of strategic manipulation rather than sincere peacemaking. By simultaneously hinting at dialogue with Öcalan while intensifying military operations against Syrian Kurds, the Turkish government exposes its duplicity in handling Kurdish aspirations for autonomy and political rights.
Ultimately, Erdoğan’s maneuvers are designed not to resolve the Kurdish question but to exploit it for short-term political gains. Whether by dividing Kurdish political forces, neutralizing their electoral influence, or using temporary ceasefires to focus on suppressing other opposition groups, Erdoğan has repeatedly demonstrated that his priority is not peace, but power consolidation.
The key question remains: How long will the Kurds and the broader Turkish opposition continue to fall victim to Erdoğan’s political tactics? And is there a possibility of breaking free from this cycle of manipulation and repression? Only time will tell.
