Turkish Event. Geostrategic Studies Team
For decades, Turkey has been a strategic crossroads between East and West, serving as one of the most influential regional powers in the Mediterranean. Over the past two decades, Turkey has undergone significant shifts in both its internal and foreign policies, driven by regional and global political and military developments. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey has adopted a policy of "strategic balance," aiming to maintain strong ties with the West (particularly the United States and the European Union) while also strengthening its relations with Russia and other regional powers. As global tensions rise and the international system evolves, the question arises: will Erdoğan turn toward the Eastern bloc, represented by Russia, to solidify his authoritarian rule, or will he continue to pursue strategic relations with the West? How might the growing rifts between the United States and Europe influence his decision? What role could Turkey play in the upcoming Russian-Ukrainian dialogues? This article aims to offer a deep analysis of these questions.
Erdoğan and the Ottoman Dream: Between East and West
Since coming to power in 2003, Erdoğan has worked to consolidate his rule through a series of political and economic reforms, and over time, he has increasingly expressed ambitions to rebuild Turkey's role as a regional power. In the early years of Erdoğan's rule, Turkey's foreign policy was largely oriented towards strengthening ties with the West, including pursuing EU membership and fostering closer relations with the United States. However, over time, tensions began to rise between Turkey and Western powers, especially with internal political changes in Turkey that centered around consolidating executive power, raising concerns about the country's democratic trajectory.
But as tensions mounted in the region and conflicts in the Middle East escalated, Erdoğan found himself in a position that required a reassessment of Turkey's strategic options. In this context, relations with Russia became pivotal, as Turkey began to engage in various forms of cooperation with Moscow, ranging from energy projects to involvement in regional conflicts such as the Syrian civil war. This growing cooperation with Russia reflects a gradual shift in Turkey's foreign policy, which could be seen as part of Erdoğan's strategy to assert greater internal control and political dominance.
Why Might Erdoğan Choose the Eastern Bloc?
One of the key reasons Erdoğan might lean toward aligning with the Eastern bloc (i.e., Russia) is to strengthen his authoritarian rule domestically. By deepening ties with Moscow, Erdoğan could secure support from Russia in the face of growing Western pressures related to human rights, civil liberties, and Turkey’s democratic trajectory. Moscow, which does not impose the same conditions as the EU or the US, could provide a more flexible partnership for Erdoğan in his efforts to maintain a strong autocratic grip on power.
Additionally, economic factors could play a significant role in this decision. Turkey seeks to diversify its energy sources and reduce its dependency on Western countries. Russia could provide an essential energy supply, particularly through natural gas pipelines and major projects such as the TurkStream pipeline. Cooperation with Russia may offer Turkey crucial economic support in light of its ongoing economic challenges, including inflation and unemployment.
The Shifts in Turkey's Relations with the West
On the other hand, Erdoğan cannot afford to ignore the deep-rooted ties that bind Turkey to the West, especially in terms of its role within NATO and the global economy. Turkey plays a strategic role in the Mediterranean, making it an important partner for the US and the EU in combating terrorism and addressing threats like ISIS. Moreover, Turkey remains a central player in regional geopolitics, and maintaining strong relations with the West is crucial for preserving Turkey's influence in the region.
However, significant challenges exist in these relations, particularly due to ongoing disagreements over issues such as human rights, Turkey's policies in Syria and Libya, and its purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system, which has angered Turkey's NATO allies. These tensions could push Erdoğan toward seeking alternative strategic partners to strengthen Turkey’s position both regionally and globally.
The US-EU Divisions and Erdoğan’s Opportunity
The growing rift between the United States and the European Union presents an opportunity for Erdoğan. While the US and Turkey have occasionally found common ground in regional issues, the EU—especially after the UK's departure—has taken a more cautious stance toward Ankara. Disagreements between the two sides over issues like migration, EU enlargement, and alleged human rights violations in Turkey could open the door for Erdoğan to capitalize on these Western divisions.
Erdoğan could seek to leverage these rifts to his advantage by enhancing Turkey's ties with Russia, while also maintaining diplomatic channels with the US and the EU. In this way, Erdoğan might position himself as a "strategic ally" to the West, while also engaging with Russia to gain support in the areas that matter most to him both domestically and regionally.
Turkey's Role in the Ukrainian Crisis: A Bridge Between Russians and Ukrainians
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, Turkey has maintained a distinctive position, balancing moderate support for Ukraine while also cooperating with Russia. Turkey has played a pivotal role in facilitating peace talks between the two sides and has been crucial in negotiating the safe passage of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, a matter critical to global food security.
Through these policies, Erdoğan aims to strengthen Turkey’s status as a "central power" capable of influencing global geopolitical developments. Turkey may also seek to capitalize on this role to enhance its relations with the West, which supports Ukraine in its confrontation with Russia, while simultaneously bolstering its influence with Russia.
Conclusion:
Erdoğan faces a complex array of choices between continuing his strategic relationship with the West or leaning more heavily toward the East. If he chooses to align with Russia, it could help consolidate his autocratic rule domestically with Moscow’s support, but it would also risk political isolation from the West. On the other hand, maintaining strong relations with the West would allow Erdoğan to continue playing a vital role in international relations but would expose him to continuous pressures regarding Turkey's internal issues.
Ultimately, it seems Erdoğan will continue to pursue a "strategic balance" policy, aiming to exploit Western divisions and carve out a central role in global crises, while simultaneously securing his domestic political power. This approach would involve balancing relations with both the West and Russia, while leveraging Turkey's strategic importance to secure its place as a key player in the global arena.
