After more than a decade of the Syrian revolution, the Syrian landscape has become a battleground for regional and international powers, each seeking to establish its foothold in a country that has lost its sovereignty to competing spheres of influence. While Russia and Iran dominate the military and political scene in Damascus, Turkey and Israel stand as two powers vying for "informal" influence, one through military occupation and popular expansion, the other through airstrikes and intelligence operations. The question today is: Who has the upper hand in establishing a long-term presence? Israel, with its security and intelligence power? Or Turkey, with its cultural and religious ties within Syrian society?
Turkey's Influence in Syria: A Multi-Dimensional Expanding Project
Since 2016, with the launch of "Operation Euphrates Shield," Turkey began to assert a military presence in northern Syria, later expanding into Afrin, Tal Abyad, and Ras al-Ayn. Turkish influence has not been limited to the military realm; it has taken on a civilian and cultural dimension: establishing local councils, tying services to Turkish municipalities, supporting education in Turkish, and using the Turkish lira.
Politically, Turkey has presented itself as the protector of the Sunni majority, especially the opposition factions, including those officially labeled as terrorists (such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), which have shown pragmatic cooperation with Ankara. The relationship between Turkey and the Sunni street is built on historical Ottoman religious ties, and shared cultural and linguistic connections, making it more acceptable than any other foreign power.
Israeli Influence: A Shadow Security Power Without Popular Depth
In contrast, Israel has adopted a more restrained but effective policy in protecting its national security through Syria. Israeli airstrikes have targeted Iranian sites and others belonging to Hezbollah near Damascus, Quneitra, and even Aleppo. Israel seeks to create an "unofficial buffer zone" in southern Syria, through agreements with Russia and certain local factions, without any ambition to build civilian or political influence.
However, Israeli influence remains confined to an intelligence–military framework, with no widespread popular acceptance, especially among the Sunni majority, which continues to view Israel as a historical enemy. Despite this, there are indications of limited cooperation with some minorities and local components, particularly in southern Syria, in a context of mutual interests.
The Sunni Population: A Natural Affinity with Turkey
The Sunni population makes up the majority of Syria's population, and historically, a large segment views Turkey as a natural cultural and religious extension, despite differences in political views among Islamists, nationalists, and liberals. With Turkey’s support for opposition factions and its adoption of a soft Islamic rhetoric, there has been a kind of popular acceptance in areas like Idlib, Aleppo, and rural Hama.
In contrast, Israel has no rhetoric capable of penetrating this community, offering no developmental or cultural projects but instead limiting its engagement to airstrikes and intelligence operations.
The Kurds: Between Turkey’s Hostility and Indirect Coordination with Israel
The position of the Kurds is markedly different from the Sunni population. Turkey is seen as a direct adversary due to its long-standing opposition to the Syrian branches of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), describing them as an extension of the PKK. Thus, Turkey is regarded as an enemy in the Kurdish political imagination.
On the other hand, Israel views the Kurds as an indirect ally that can be used to balance Turkish and Iranian influence, especially in northeastern Syria. There are reports of Israeli political, diplomatic, and perhaps even intelligence support for the Kurdish project in Syria, under the continued American umbrella.
Alawites and Druze: Minorities Navigating International Forces
The Alawites, who form the backbone of the Assad regime, view Turkey as an existential threat due to its Sunni background and support for the revolution. Despite their traditional enmity toward Israel, they prefer a "clear enemy" rather than a Sunni ally that threatens their political structure.
The Druze, particularly in Suwayda and the Golan Heights, take a more pragmatic stance. They have maintained quiet channels with Israel, benefiting from their ties to the Druze community in the occupied Golan, without aligning directly. Turkey, on the other hand, holds no influence among the Druze, and may even be met with suspicion.
Major Powers: The U.S. and Russia Draw the Boundaries of Influence
Turkey and Israel do not operate in a vacuum but within spheres defined by the United States and Russia:
The United States provides the strategic cover for both Israel and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), seeking to maintain a fragile balance that prevents Russian or Iranian dominance. Despite tensions with Turkey, the U.S. is still compelled to engage with it as a NATO ally.
Russia, the primary guarantor of the Assad regime's survival, coordinates with Israel on security matters to avoid direct confrontation while maintaining necessary ties with Turkey through the Astana and Sochi processes, despite conflicting objectives.
This complex balance means that any expansion of Turkish or Israeli influence in Syria is always within a framework dictated by the U.S. and Russia, making the real influence always subject to international power plays.
Conclusion: Who Holds the Keys to the Future?
Despite Israel’s superiority in intelligence and its international cover, its influence in Syria remains confined to security operations, lacking the civilian or popular depth for a long-term presence. In contrast, Turkey has succeeded in establishing a multifaceted presence, both militarily and civically, despite Kurdish resistance and Russian pressure.
Syrian components themselves play a crucial role: the Sunnis lean toward Turkey, the Kurds hold onto the U.S. and welcome Israel as a balancing force, the Druze take a more neutral position, and the Alawites remain loyal to their Russian and Iranian allies.
Ultimately, Turkey appears to have the upper hand in terms of popular influence, while Israel remains a shadow player, effective in security but lacking a comprehensive political project in Syria.
- Geostrategic Studies Team / "Future Foresight" Department
