A Geopolitical Study by Ibrahim Kaban
Syria today is going through a pivotal moment in its contemporary history — not merely due to external interventions that fragmented its national fabric, but because of the gradual formation of a new regime in Damascus. This regime is unlike any seen before: it is not governed by official institutions or national legitimacy, but rather by shadow networks of military and security actors with transnational agendas. These networks represent a convergence between global jihadist interests and expansive regional ambitions, particularly led by the Turkish-Qatari axis.
This study sheds light on the complexity of this emerging reality by analyzing the phenomenon of the "Jihadist Deep State" and examining the role of Ahmad al-Sharaa as the civilian facade of a broader system dominated by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Turkish intelligence. It also investigates the ideological rivalry within this hybrid political structure, the links between HTS and the Turkish-Qatari project, and the parallel security apparatus controlling state functions.
This is not merely an attempt to interpret the Syrian present but a warning of a future that is being imposed on Syrians through force, foreign financing, and ideological manipulation. It is a call to rethink the trajectory of the Syrian state: will it emerge as a sovereign national entity, or evolve into a functional proxy project under Islamic branding and foreign administration?
Chapter One: The Government Facade — Ahmad al-Sharaa Between Symbolism and Real Power
Since Ahmad al-Sharaa assumed leadership of the transitional government in Damascus, it became evident that his role is not to lead an independent national project but to serve as a symbolic figure legitimizing externally imposed balances. He enjoys broad acceptability among regional actors, particularly Ankara and Doha, but this "legitimacy" does not translate into actual power.
In reality, al-Sharaa does not control security, foreign policy, or real governance. These files are handled by informal networks linked to the Mujahideen Council and HTS. This reflects a new governance pattern: a civilian facade backed by military-security control deeply tied to Turkish interests.
Chapter Two: The Mujahideen Deep State — Ruling Damascus from the Shadows
The so-called "Mujahideen Council" operates as a hybrid military-security body coordinating between HTS, allied Islamist factions, and Turkish intelligence officers. It does not publicly announce decisions but exercises supreme influence over key appointments, military operations, and social policies.
Abu Dujana, formerly a prominent HTS commander, has become a symbol of this deep state. According to field sources, key decisions are made in closed facilities supervised by Turkish officers, with al-Sharaa’s government merely issuing follow-up statements. Many members of this structure are non-Syrian fighters, eroding any notion of national sovereignty in the emerging governance model.
Chapter Three: Islamist Factionalism — Between Salafi Jihadism and Brotherhood Pragmatism
A hidden struggle unfolds within the transitional government among various currents of political Islam, from hardline Salafi jihadists to pragmatic Muslim Brotherhood-aligned actors. HTS, leaning toward the former, seeks to entrench its dominance through infiltration of executive bodies, while the Brotherhood-aligned faction — backed by Turkey and Qatar — pursues a moderate Islamic governance model palatable to the international community.
This ideological clash is reflected in contradictory policies, fragmented decision-making, and rival narratives within education, judiciary, and internal security — all under a fragile national framework.
Chapter Four: The Turkish Project in Syria — From Strategic Depth to Demographic Engineering
Turkey’s involvement in Syria goes beyond humanitarian or security concerns — it represents a strategic project aiming to establish lasting influence in northern Syria. This is implemented through:
- Demographic reengineering via population transfers and sectarian balance shifts.
- Imposing Turkish language in education.
- Integrating the local economy with the Turkish lira and financial institutions.
- Using humanitarian NGOs as soft power tools.
Armed groups loyal to Ankara, directly or through administrative proxies, ensure implementation of this agenda under the banner of stability and Islamic governance.
Chapter Five: Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham — Cosmetic Reforms, Persistent Core
HTS has undergone tactical transformations — from an al-Qaeda affiliate to a de facto governance actor in Idlib and now Damascus. Yet, its core ideology and structures remain unchanged: it continues to use force to establish an Islamic polity under foreign sponsorship.
Leader Abu Muhammad al-Jolani has rebranded the group and softened its public discourse, but its security apparatus and exclusionary mindset remain intact. HTS today positions itself as a partner in the Turkish project, embedding itself within administrative and religious structures while remaining internationally unrecognized.
Chapter Six: The Qatari-Turkish Axis Within HTS — Funding, Patronage, and Internal Balances
HTS’s rise would be inconceivable without the Qatari-Turkish axis. Turkey provides logistical and military backing, while Qatar ensures financial and political support through media and NGOs.
Qatar’s relationship with HTS is nuanced. Some HTS factions tied to Doha are actively moderating its public and religious discourse in hopes of future international recognition. Doha also mediates humanitarian negotiations involving HTS and Western actors.
Qatari influence includes:
- Funding local NGOs run by proxy networks.
- Promoting HTS-aligned media figures on platforms like Al Jazeera.
- Direct financial support to HTS’s civilian wing.
Nevertheless, tensions exist:
- HTS’s hardline wing views Qatar’s involvement as an attempt to dilute jihadist ideals.
- The civilian Brotherhood-affiliated wing sees Doha as protection against Turkish or Western abandonment.
This dual reliance on Turkish security and Qatari patronage renders HTS a hybrid between a jihadist movement and a proxy governance actor.
Chapter Seven: HTS Security Apparatus — Structure, Doctrine, and Covert Operations
HTS’s security apparatus is the backbone of its internal control. It functions as a parallel state with unchecked authority over arrests, surveillance, community policing, and narrative enforcement.
Key features include:
- Centralized command under al-Jolani loyalists.
- Secret prison networks.
- Cyber-monitoring and social media control units.
Its doctrine blends jihadist ideology with authoritarian control, rejecting democracy while adopting the veneer of civil administration. It quashes dissent from rival factions and independent actors alike.
Chapter Eight: Future Scenarios — Cracks in the Alliance or Deeper Entrenchment?
Despite its current cohesion, the alliance between the facade government, HTS, and Turkish intelligence is vulnerable:
- Al-Sharaa may later seek independence, risking marginalization or elimination.
- HTS could clash with Brotherhood factions if it feels its power waning.
- Shifting regional or domestic Turkish politics may reshape the alliance.
Alternatively, the model may become entrenched, especially if framed internationally as a stable Islamic administration. In either case, Syria’s fate hinges on whether national forces can mount a credible alternative to this externally-imposed hybrid regime.
References:
1. **International Crisis Group (ICG)** – *“Tentative Peace in Idlib: The Challenges Ahead”*, Report No. 213, Brussels, 2023.
2. **Carnegie Middle East Center** – Aron Lund, *“The Jihadist Governance of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham”*, 2022.
3. **Chatham House** – Haid Haid, *“HTS's Soft Power: Civil Administration and Co-optation of Local Institutions”*, 2021.
4. **The Washington Institute for Near East Policy** – Fabrice Balanche, *“The Turkish Plan for Northern Syria: Demographic and Political Engineering”*, 2022.
5. **Middle East Institute (MEI)** – Charles Lister, *“The Evolution of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham”*, 2023.
6. **Omran Center for Strategic Studies** – *“Local Governance in HTS-Controlled Areas: Between Civil Facade and Security Control”*, 2023.
7. **Al Jazeera Center for Studies** – *“Turkey and Armed Groups in Syria: Strategic Alliance or Mutual Interest?”*, 2022.
8. **Syrian Crisis Reports (2020–2024)** – Field-based insights on HTS operations.
