The Middle East from October 7, 2023, to the Sharm
El-Sheikh Conference, October 13, 2025
The Transformation of the Regional System and the Emergence of New Power Equations
The Transformation of the Regional System and the Emergence of New Power Equations
Geostrategic Studies Team
Since October 7, 2023, the Middle East has entered an unprecedented phase of geopolitical transformation. That day was not merely an eruption of another cycle of violence; it was a historical rupture dividing two eras — before and after the Gaza War. The attack launched by Hamas against Israel reshaped regional alliances and opened the door to a complex struggle between local, regional, and global forces, stretching from the Mediterranean to the Gulf and from the mountains of Qandil to the banks of the Nile.
This event dismantled the traditional framework of political settlement established since the Oslo Accords and exposed the inability of the current regional order — based on deterrence and normalization — to address the core of the problem: justice and national rights for the Palestinian people. As great powers engaged in supporting selective actors, the Middle East became an arena for testing the international order itself, between those seeking to reproduce dominance through force and those pursuing a new balance founded on sovereignty and mutual respect.
Since October 7, 2023, the Middle East has entered an unprecedented phase of geopolitical transformation. That day was not merely an eruption of another cycle of violence; it was a historical rupture dividing two eras — before and after the Gaza War. The attack launched by Hamas against Israel reshaped regional alliances and opened the door to a complex struggle between local, regional, and global forces, stretching from the Mediterranean to the Gulf and from the mountains of Qandil to the banks of the Nile.
This event dismantled the traditional framework of political settlement established since the Oslo Accords and exposed the inability of the current regional order — based on deterrence and normalization — to address the core of the problem: justice and national rights for the Palestinian people. As great powers engaged in supporting selective actors, the Middle East became an arena for testing the international order itself, between those seeking to reproduce dominance through force and those pursuing a new balance founded on sovereignty and mutual respect.
I. The Gaza War and the Reproduction of the Crisis of Global Justice
The Israeli assault on Gaza and the ensuing devastation represented a defining moment in modern moral and political history. The Palestinian cause ceased to be a marginal regional issue and instead became a mirror reflecting the ethical crisis of the international system. Israel waged a campaign of destruction under the doctrine of “deterrence through devastation,” targeting civilian infrastructure, hospitals, and schools in an effort to impose a new reality through overwhelming force.
The results, however, were paradoxical. Sympathy for the Palestinians surged worldwide, and Israel’s narrative began to lose legitimacy even within Western societies, particularly among younger generations. While Washington offered unconditional support to Tel Aviv, shifts in Western public opinion revealed the first cracks in that alliance.
Across the Arab world, the Palestinian issue returned to the center of political discourse after years of marginalization. Governments realized that ignoring the catastrophe could unleash popular anger beyond their control, prompting renewed — albeit cautious — diplomatic engagement aimed at preserving at least the semblance of collective dignity.
II. Turkey’s Moves: Between Mediation and Expansion
Amid the chaos, Turkey emerged as an active yet contradictory player. Ankara sought to balance its position as a NATO member with its aspiration to act as a dominant regional power. While voicing strong solidarity with Gaza to reclaim lost popularity, Turkey simultaneously escalated its military operations against Kurdish forces in northern Syria and Iraq, exploiting global distraction to advance its security agenda.
This dual strategy — combining humanitarian rhetoric with expansionist policy — reflected the inherent tension between Turkish nationalism and political Islam. Turkey’s actions were not limited to military aggression; they formed part of a broader project to redefine its regional influence through tactical partnerships with Russia, Iran, and Qatar. Yet Ankara faces a strategic dilemma: its ambitions often exceed its economic capacity, and its alliances are riven by conflicting interests between East and West.
III. The Kurdish Question: Between Geopolitical Resilience and the Struggle for Survival
The Kurdish reality entered its most delicate stage since 2014. In northern and eastern Syria, Kurdish-led regions became direct targets of Turkish airstrikes and shelling, while U.S. engagement diminished amid shifting priorities toward Gaza and Ukraine.
The Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria confronted a triple pressure:
Turkish pressure through continued attacks and attempts to dismantle local governance;
Syrian regime pressure aimed at restoring centralized control;
Russian pressure promoting conditional reintegration under Damascus.
Despite these challenges, Kurdish institutions displayed remarkable adaptability and cohesion. Civil and military structures remained functional, and political leadership continued to emphasize inclusive governance and representation. Diplomatically, Kurdish actors strengthened their ties with European institutions to legitimize their model as part of Syria’s future rather than as a separatist anomaly.
In Iraqi Kurdistan, political rivalries and economic hardship intersected with external pressures from Iran and Turkey. Yet Erbil maintained a pragmatic balance — sustaining its partnership with Washington while preserving vital economic corridors with Ankara and Tehran. This flexible strategy underscored an evolved Kurdish understanding that survival in the modern Middle East depends not on ideological purity but on strategic realism.
IV. Egypt’s Position: Restoring Leadership through Balanced Diplomacy
Amid regional turmoil, Egypt reemerged as a steady and pragmatic actor. Cairo managed the Gaza crisis through a dual approach: coordinating security with Israel to protect its Sinai frontier while providing political and humanitarian support to the Palestinians.
Egypt rejected any attempts to turn Sinai into a displacement zone, firmly opposing forced relocation of Gazans — a stance that earned it renewed respect across the Arab world. Through its diplomatic initiatives and leadership in organizing the Sharm El-Sheikh Conference, Egypt reclaimed its traditional role as the Arab world’s stabilizing center.
This strategy allowed Cairo to convert economic vulnerability into diplomatic strength, proving once again that Egypt’s power lies not only in its military but also in its ability to mediate and balance competing regional forces.
V. The Collapse of Hezbollah’s Offensive Power and the Death of Hassan Nasrallah
By mid-2025, the Israeli–Lebanese confrontation reached a historic turning point. A series of precision Israeli strikes dismantled Hezbollah’s offensive infrastructure in southern Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut, killing several top commanders — including Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.
The event reshaped the balance of power across the Levant. The Iran-led “Axis of Resistance” lost its most charismatic and strategically capable leader, resulting in communication breakdowns among its affiliates in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Hezbollah’s capacity for offensive action was effectively neutralized, and Israel regained a temporary upper hand in deterrence.
However, Nasrallah’s death left a dangerous vacuum in Lebanon, exposing the country to political and security fragmentation. At the same time, the episode revealed the limits of Iranian deterrence; despite rhetoric, Tehran refrained from direct confrontation, fearing a full-scale war. The post-Nasrallah era thus marked a fundamental shift in the strategic equation between Tehran and Tel Aviv.
VI. The Sharm El-Sheikh Conference: Engineering a New Regional Order
After two years of turmoil, the Sharm El-Sheikh Conference in October 2025 represented the first serious international attempt to redesign the security architecture of the Middle East. Regional and global leaders gathered to discuss Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen — along with broader issues of energy, refugees, and reconstruction.
The conference was not a mere diplomatic formality. It was an effort to redefine what “security” means in a region exhausted by war. Participants agreed in principle on the need for regional mechanisms for collective security and joint economic initiatives to limit external manipulation. Proposals such as the “Middle East Economic Corridor” — linking the Gulf to the Mediterranean through Egypt and Israel — reflected a new economic pragmatism, though they faced public resistance due to normalization concerns.
Most significantly, the conference reaffirmed Egypt’s central role as a neutral mediator and highlighted that sustainable peace must come from within the region itself — through political courage and moral responsibility rather than military dominance.
Analytical Conclusion
Between October 2023 and October 2025, the Middle East redefined itself through cycles of war, resistance, and adaptation. Military strength alone proved insufficient; political resilience and strategic flexibility emerged as the true measures of power.
The new regional order now taking shape is one in which grand ideologies recede, pragmatic alliances prevail, and emerging actors — from the Kurds to Egypt to Turkey — assume more visible roles in shaping the future.
That future will not be determined by victory or defeat, but by the balance of necessities and the creation of mutual partnerships in a post-war world seeking equilibrium rather than domination.
