Strategic analysis for: Ibrahim M. kaban
In addition to its military intervention in Syria on August 24, 2016, and its occupation of vital areas in the north, starting from Jarablus, Azaz and Al-Bab, to the vast areas of Idlib Governorate, and its completion by seizing the cities and countryside of Afrin and Ras al-Ain / Sere Kaniye and Tal Abyad, and continuing to transform these areas into The field of training, arming, and preparing for extremist groups, implementing demographic change operations against the Kurdish Syrians, and building a security belt project of extremists and racists inside the Syrian territories to protect Turkish national security at the expense of the Syrian territorial integrity, security, territorial integrity and plurality of its society. To increase the Turkish regime today with the project of destroying water security in the region, and to use this old, renewed weapon against the Syrians by seizing Syria's shares of the Euphrates water by cutting it, in order to fill its water dams at the expense of the Syrian people, which means war and bad economic conditions, in order to complete the Turkish special war Which threatens the lives of more than 4 million Syrians inside the Autonomous Administration areas, and the same in the areas adjacent to the Euphrates on the western side that are controlled by the Syrian regime.

The Turkish intelligence has deliberately created chaos in northern Syria, through the use of extremist groups of the Syrian opposition, led by (the coalition and its armed groups - the National Army, the Euphrates Shield and the Turkmen armed battalions) that take Turkey as a stronghold for their activities, and they are used for projects related to the Turkish expansionist policies in particular. The region, as the chaos and destruction of the infrastructure of the Syrian state gave the Turkish regime the opportunity to seize the goods of the country, and to deal with extremists (ISIS and others during their control over vast areas of Syria) in stealing the mechanisms by which the fossil wealth is extracted, in addition to the industrial and agricultural capabilities that were It is characterized by the Governorate of Aleppo and the eastern regions of Syria, where the new war of the Turkish regime falls within the context of the continuing destruction of Syrian agriculture and the increase in the humanitarian crisis in the regions of north and east Syria.

The Russian guarantor and his tools .. and a terrible silence

Since the most affected by the new Turkish operation to cut off the waters of the Euphrates River are the Autonomous Administration areas in northern and eastern Syria, the Russian-Turkish understandings, including the Iranian and Syrian agreements with the Turkish regime, directly affected the Russian position in taking a bystander position, and this is also understood in the context of - As if it is exerting pressure in this way through Turkey on the Autonomous Administration region in order to gain some concessions, whether in the issue of oil wealth controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces or the ongoing relations between the international coalition led by the United States of America with the Syrian Democratic Forces, factors that clearly affect Russian positions and tools in the region, and push them to adopt a policy of hostility to the Autonomous Administration, even if not overtly.

The disaster of cutting off the Euphrates River and the Turkish exploitation of the Syrian situation

Weeks ago, the water imports coming from Turkey via the Euphrates began to retreat to less than a quarter of the amount stipulated in the agreement signed between Damascus and Ankara in 1987, whereby Turkey controls the flow of river water through 6 dams located on the Euphrates River, and the Syrian war is exploiting the circumstances of the Syrian war to fill its dams in Faster time. This means that it violates the UN covenants and covenants concerned with sharing water wealth between countries, and the aforementioned agreement that preserves the level of the river at the limits of 500 cubic meters per second in order to avoid a humanitarian catastrophe in the areas crossed by the river, and thus it will have catastrophic effects on Syria and Iraq.
The process of tapping into what was agreed upon between the parties regarding the amount of water and its distribution between the three countries (Turkey - Syria - Iraq) indicates a clear Turkish plan to visit the Syrian suffering in all its regions, because this river and the dams spread along the river supply the country with water, electricity and agriculture, which shows The extent of the new Turkish war, which is added to its blatant interference with the Syrian situation and its involvement in striking stability and supporting extremist groups that are violating the country. To add to this a new card that the Turkish regime is waving in the face of the Syrians, and part of the bad Turkish plans that it is practicing in the siege of the country and the people, especially at this time when Syria suffers from the consequences of the civil war and the deteriorating economy as a result of the Tsar’s law.

Turkish political goals

It is clear that Turkey is the most intertwined force in the Syrian civil war, and it is involved in the Syrian blood that has always been training, arming and supporting extremist groups, "the remnants of ISIS (the National Army), the Nazareth Front (Al Qaeda) and the Turkmen battalions (Sultan Murad) and others." The Syrian refugees, because this will affect the legitimacy of its intervention in Syria through its Syrian refugee gateway or the protection of armed groups in the border areas, and if the peace process is achieved, Turkey is forced to withdraw its forces and agenda from northern Syria, and therefore all its attempts to annex the northern part of Syria to its lands will fail completely. ... as an occupation force, and when the Syrian crisis ends, it will inevitably recede. Therefore, the Turkish regime is trying by various means to raise three issues that would allow it to stay for the longest possible period:
1- Maintaining the Syrian crisis without solutions, and trying to stir up problems more so that the atmosphere is always ready for it to stay and implement its hostile projects. Including controlling the flow of the Euphrates River, and this contributes to the speed of filling its dams, which are supposed to take a longer time if the agreed amount is given to Syria.
2- Implementing a special plan with the Iranian and Syrian regimes regarding demographic change in settling Sunni Arabs in the place of the Kurds in northern Syria, and the Shiites in place of the Sunnis in the interior of Syria. This was achieved in its details, after Turkey withdrew most of the armed groups with their families, and the vast portion of the Sunni Arabs to the areas occupied by Turkey from Syria, in exchange for giving the Iranian Shiite battalions and the Syrian regime sufficient space to establish the Shiite presence in the interior regions of Syria, to the point where the Arabs became Sunnis in major cities such as Damascus and Aleppo are a minority, after they were a great majority. In return, the Turkish regime uses Arab and Turkmen Sunni armed groups to eradicate the Kurdish presence in the north, and to settle these groups and supporters and supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood movement, al-Qaeda and ISIS in these areas, thus achieving the Turkish-Iranian plan and the Syrian regime to stabilize the new demographic changes.
3- Adding the occupied territories to the Turkish state effectively, and creating more problems between Sunnis and Alawites in order to provide them with permanent Sunni Arab dependency, and the Muslim Brotherhood movement, the Al-Nusra Front, the remnants of ISIS and (the segment that owes them loyalty) were used for this purpose, and thus the implementation of demographic change And systematic Turkification processes.
These three factors provide the Turkish regime to stay and control the north of Syria, and to build a security belt of Syrian and foreign terrorists to protect the security of the Turkish state at the expense of the security and unity of Syria.

Turkish projects and the need to create crises in Syria and Iraq in order to seize water

Turkish officials, for decades, have been clear in their efforts and plans towards the region as a whole, especially the Arab countries, and this is what Suleiman Demirel, the former Turkish president, says: “The waters of the Euphrates and Tigris are Turkish and the sources of these water are Turkish resources, and oil wells are owned by Iraq, Syria, and we We do not say to Syria and Iraq that we share their oil resources, nor do they have the right to say that they share our water resources, it is a matter of sovereignty - this is our land and we have the right to do what we want.
During the past decades, the Turkish regime has been creating crises around water security with Syria and Iraq, especially after building new dams on the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, but this was met with continuous joint Iraqi-Syrian opposition, and it was sufficient for Turkish governments to retreat from their projects, and with the deterioration of security and stability. In Iraq and the dismantling of Syria as a result of the Turkish intervention and its dedication to the disintegration process, both countries have become weak in front of Turkish projects, as Turkey has military bases in both countries, in addition to annexing part of the Syrian territories to Turkey, as this process enabled the Turkish regime to bypass all the agreements that were made around Each country's share of the Euphrates and Tigris waters. The previous decades witnessed a number of agreements:
1962: The first round of exchanging information, data and views was held between Syria, Iraq and Turkey, and each party got acquainted with the other’s point of view. Technical tours continued between the capitals of the three countries alternately during the subsequent period, and no actual result was reached.
1975: Based on the discussions of the Joint Technical Committee and the mediation of the World Bank, the share of the three countries was divided by one-third of the average annual river import.
1980: The Iraqi side managed to sign a protocol with Turkey stipulating “the necessity of reaching an agreement on sharing the Euphrates water within a period not exceeding February 1982 CE” and a committee was formed for this purpose (and a Syrian was invited to it), after which a series of meetings began during the years Subsequent, and no actual result was reached until the work of the committee stopped in October 1992 due to the intransigence of the Turkish side.
In 1987: During the visit of Turkish Prime Minister Turgurt Ozal to Damascus, a protocol for economic and technical cooperation was signed, Article VI of which temporarily regulates the quotas between Syria and Turkey until the completion of the filling of the Ataturk Dam in 1993 AD, then Turkey's share returns to one-third, which will take place. According to Syria, the flow rate of no less than 500 cubic meters per second of the Euphrates River water, "equivalent to 50% of the Euphrates' imports annually."
1989: A bilateral Memorandum of Understanding was signed between Syria and Iraq stipulating that Syria releases 58% of the Euphrates water coming to it from Turkey, while the remaining share for Syria is 42%, (Syria's share of the Euphrates water is 6.627 billion cubic meters, and Iraq’s share is 9.106 billion cubic meters. Cubic meters and Turkey's share is 15.700 billion cubic meters per year.
In 1994: Syria registered the interim agreement concluded with Turkey in 1987 with the United Nations to guarantee the minimum right of Syria and Iraq to the waters of the Euphrates, but the share that reaches Syria and Iraq today is much less due to Turkey's exploitation of the troubled reality of Iraq and Syria.
- Decades ago, the Turkish countries cut off all the springs and rivers that used to flow from the Turkish lands to the north of Syria, where most of them dried up, and the water no longer flowed in them, even though the Khabur River and its tributaries (Al-Jurjegh, Al-Jarjab, Zarkan and Tal Halaf) were on the island, reaching the Balikh River Which was walking to the town of Tal Abyad and pouring into the Euphrates River east of the city of Raqqa, as well as the Sajur and Quayq River, which were flowing strongly from Turkish lands towards Aleppo and Manbij, in addition to a large number of springs that dried up completely after the Turkish state dug many wells on its lower course to Thus, you direct it inside Turkish territory.
Reports indicate that the most prominent projects proposed in the “Peace Pipelines” project provides for the withdrawal of water from the Ceyhan and Ceyhan rivers in the Anatolia region by means of a 39 million cubic meter / day pipeline from which Turkey exploits 23 million cubic meters / day, and sends the rest to feed Aleppo, Hama and Homs. And Damascus and Amman in Jordan, Tabuk, Medina, Al-Munawrah, Yanbu, Jeddah and Makkah.
On the other hand, the Turkish state kept opening the stream of torrents in the winter so that excess water would flow in large quantities towards the Syrian lands, causing the destruction of crops and properties and the sinking of villages and towns.

Turkish projects and the process of digesting all rivers and springs that flow into Syria

For decades, the Turkish countries have been working according to organized and focused plans to digest all the rivers and springs that flow from their lands towards Syria, and if we look at the length of the Turkish borders, we will find that most of these springs and rivers either flow very little towards the Syrian lands or many of them have been cut off, and the effects of drought in The course of these rivers and springs is clear. As this process took place according to a strategy directed towards dams and benefits belonging to the Turkish state at the expense of Syria and Iraq’s share of this water. Here are some Turkish projects that show the extent of the process:
Jungle Project (Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesi)
It consists of 22 dams, 19 electric power stations and various other projects in the sectors of agriculture, industry, transportation, irrigation and communications, and the jungle in terms of area is the largest project in the world, and includes eight governorates, and upon completion, the area of ​​irrigated agriculture through it is approximately 8.5 million hectares, or about 19% of the land area. Meroitic in Turkey. Among the most important dams of the Al-Ghab project, which exceeded twenty (Ataturk Dam), this dam was inaugurated in July 1992 in the presence of heads and representatives of 29 countries, in addition to about a hundred diplomats. The dam is located on the Euphrates River, 24 km from the city of Bozerva, and it is the third in the world in terms of its base volume of 84.5 m3, the eighth in terms of height of 190 m, the fifteenth in terms of the volume of water in the dam lake, and the eighteenth in terms of electric energy production. The dam is full. The amount of stored water will reach 48.7 million m3, and the maximum height of the water level is 162 m, with a width of 15 m, ie a total of 882 thousand hectares.
This project absorbs large quantities of water, and to fill and complete it, the Turkish regime has directed large quantities of water years ago (Tigris, Furat, Bhutan, Hazel, Khabur, Great Zai Murat, Spray), and in return for filling these dams with water, the Turkish state established an extension A huge network of pipes to pump water to remote areas, from which water is pumped from Lake Ataturk, located between the Samsur and Rha regions (Urofa), through huge pipes to the Harran Plain areas in the eastern part of Urufa province.

According to official reports, the water network consists of approximately 25 irrigation projects with a volume of nearly 2 million hectares of land. This project costs approximately $ 32 billion, while these large projects are financed by international institutions led by the Turkish company Nurol, headed by Yunus Bayraktar, which is close to Israel, and it is one of the largest construction companies in Turkey, in addition to the presence of the former Swiss company Sulzer Hydro which It was bought by the Austrian company VA Tehc. Thus, only a few small companies specialized in electrical work remained from the European consortium, the most important of which was the French Alstom company, the German company Ed Zoblin, the Austrian company Tzrabag and the German Escher Fish company, in partnership with the Austrian company Tech Hydro, which specialized in the field of hydropower. The large part of the project has been completed and is supposed to be completely completed within the next two years. Consequently, the quantities of water that cover these networks are very large, and the dams that cover the needs of this network need to further cut rivers from the Syrian and Iraqi lands, in order to provide the required quantity, and that the current Turkish policies and chaos that contribute to its continuation in Syria and Iraq are in favor of the Turkish regime, which Take advantage of these conditions to cut water and fill its dams.

04.05.2021