Special / Editorial Board of Geostrategic Studies
Over the past months, the American political (and perhaps military) interest in the Middle East has increased, especially the clear focus on the presence of its forces in Syria and the adjacent areas inside Iraq and Jordan, after the visit of its chief of staff to the American military bases in the areas of the Autonomous Administration in northern and eastern Syria.
On the other hand, there is a clear exclusion and lack of interest in any US military presence in Turkey, as the latter has always been a strategic center for NATO, and any US military movement in the Middle East during the past decades, when Turkey was acting as (NATO border policeman) to protect Western interests against any expansion Presumably Soviet. However, the political developments and signs of the US-Turkish differences over some details and interests, and the Turkish move towards deepening relations with the Russian axis, and this caused the expansion of the Russian sphere of influence in the eastern Mediterranean from the Turkish gate at the expense of American hegemony, all of this sends a new American approach towards empowering its presence. military operations outside Turkey, and in strategic areas such as Syria, Jordan, Greece and the Kurdistan region.
Especially the Iranian outlet overlooking the Syrian regime from the gate of the southern basin of the Euphrates River at the point of the desert of Deir ez-Zor. Where the Iranian movements focus on these areas due to its continued ground contact with the Syrian regime, which controls these areas under Russian sponsorship and the support of Iranian militias. This threatens to deepen the differences between the two parties if Turkey continues the path of rapprochement with Russia at the expense of its relations with the United States of America and the European Union.
The conflict over eastern Syria
The Iranian endeavor to have a heavy presence inside Syria and to control the outlets of communication between the Iraqi-Syrian territories continues under the umbrella of the Russian-American consensus in eastern Syria. Therefore, Iranian attempts focus on enabling its presence inside Syria from Iraqi territory. After the US military intervention in liberating Iraq enabled Iranian influence and its allies to seize power. Considering that the Iranian policy of expansion did not stop at the expense of the Arab countries, the Iranian strategy focuses on Syria because it is part of the Iranian influence in the Middle East, given that the international scene is repeated in Syria, and that the existing regime is a strategic ally of Iran, so the dependency of the part controlled by the Syrian regime has become part of Iranian interests.
Iranian expansion took place with Russian support - and the lack of seriousness of the United States of America in overthrowing the Syrian regime, leaving it oscillating between Iranian and Russian influence.
Dramatic shifts
The American presence in the region is clear, and receives direct support from the Gulf countries that support American efforts to prevent Iranian expansion. However, the continuous Israeli strikes on Iranian sites in Syria, and the new US military transformations that began to intensify its presence in several strategic points in the Middle East, starting with enabling its bases in Greece surrounding Turkey, all the way to eastern Syria where the Autonomous Administration regions, Jordan, the Persian Gulf, and the sea are located. Mediterranean, in conjunction with the Israeli-Arab moves against the Iranian presence in Syria. All these transformations raise many questions, which naturally prompts us to anticipate events through the military developments in Ukraine on the one hand, leading to the imminent Turkish elections and the state of tension in the Turkish street, and the raging internal Iranian conflict, with the continuation of the Iranian uprising.
The logical question here is: Will the Western powers launch air strikes on Iran?, especially after Iranian internal developments helped such a path.
Or perhaps the United States of America is trying to strengthen its presence in the Middle East after a decade of failures that contributed to the loss of the confidence of its allies in it, and therefore through this presence it is possible to establish its strategy in the face of the Russian-Chinese expansion, and its tools in the Middle East, and this naturally requires the formation of a military and political alliance From Arab countries, Israel, and the military and political groups opposing the Iranian regime.
The American moves can also be understood as expectations of a possible development in Turkey, especially since the nature of the current Turkish regime, which is composed of political Islam and the extremist nationalist movement, will not give up power in the upcoming elections that will be held on May 15, 2023, in which the Turkish opposition may win, and as a result of So the regime refused, and there is a kind of problem inside Turkey. In addition to a possible Turkish military operation on the Kurdish areas in Syria.
In fact, the region is witnessing remarkable developments, focusing on the possibility of US policies taking new paths, and the return of the Middle East to American interest, which raises many logical questions, which will be revealed by events during the coming months.
