Special / Geostrategic team for political analysis
Quoted from the final statement of the Quartet in Astana (the Turkish, Syrian and Iranian regimes under Russian auspices):
Kazakhstan - Final statement of the Astana talks:
- The importance of continuing active efforts to restore relations between Türkiye and Syria
- Firm commitment to Syria's sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity
- The importance of advancing this process on the basis of goodwill and good neighborliness in order to combat terrorism
- Continue cooperation in combating terrorism and confronting separatist plans aimed at undermining Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity and threatening the national security of neighboring countries.
- Reject all attempts to create new facts "on the ground", including illegal initiatives on "autonomy", under the pretext of combating terrorism.
- Rejecting the illegal confiscation of wealth and the transfer of oil revenues that should belong to the Syrians
- Concern about harassment by separatist groups against the civilian population, including forced conscription and discriminatory practices in the field of education
- Commitment to promoting a political process led and implemented by the Syrians themselves, with the assistance of the United Nations.
analysis
During the previous meetings and agreements, the three countries gathered (Turkey - Russia - Iran), so Russia and Iran represented the Syrian regime, while Turkey represented the Syrian opposition that supported it, but in this meeting, which was pivotal, the regime and its Russian and Iranian representatives attended, while the opposition did not attend. And Turkey remained to represent it! Besides, the agreement and the talk was military and not political, and this means that there is a political exclusion of the opposition represented by the coalition that follows the Turkish occupation.
On the one hand, this summit was a reaction to the developments in the Arab relationship with the Syrian regime, and the results of the attempt to drag the regime into the Arab incubator at the expense of the regime's relations with Iran and Russia. While what is clear is the attempt to circumvent the Geneva track, which was disrupted as a result of the agreements between Turkey, Iran and the Russians, and thus the Syrian regime, in addition to reviving the Syrian regime according to a tripartite track led by the Iranians, the Russians and the Turks, and the process of keeping the regime in this track, because there is no Arab track, because the moves Arabia is going according to a Western-American strategy.
- The importance of continuing active efforts to restore relations between Turkey and Syria: It is clear that these relations will only be achieved by removing the obstacles between the two parties, and returning to the application of the Adana Agreement of 1998, which stipulates that neither party will support any group that the other party finds a threat to its national security, and therefore if Turkey wants to If it intervenes in Syria to fight the Syrian Democratic Forces, it must first stop supporting groups that threaten the Syrian regime. This necessarily means eliminating these groups and handing them over to Assad in one form or another. This issue is confirmed by what was mentioned in the final statement in part: (Unwavering commitment to the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of Syria). Turkey is committed to this by ensuring the protection of the Syrian regime and the elimination of any threat posed by any group supported by Turkey.
Although the Turkish demand revolves around legitimizing its presence in Syria through an agreement with the Syrian regime, and the two sides meet in the strategy of fighting the Syrian Democratic Forces, and Iran supports these efforts, because the Iranian presence in Syria is threatened by some Arab countries and Western powers led by the United States of America. And Israel.
Quoted from the closing statement:
Continue cooperation in combating terrorism and confronting separatist plans aimed at undermining Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity and threatening the national security of neighboring countries.
Reject all attempts to create new facts "on the ground", including illegal initiatives on "autonomy", under the pretext of combating terrorism.
- Rejecting the illegal confiscation of wealth and the transfer of oil revenues that should belong to the Syrians
Concern about harassment by separatist groups against the civilian population, including forced conscription and discriminatory practices in the field of education
Analysis
It is clear that the focus of the meeting was directed against the Syrian Democratic Forces, its Western allies, and the Arab track that began with the regime's attraction to the Arab incubator as an alternative Western plan to distance the Syrian regime from Asitana and Iran.
Focal points that show us the extent of the size that was secretly planned between the Quartet, the large size of the security and military agreements, of which only a few references appeared during the final statement, the reference to the Autonomous Administration as a reality that is imposed according to their perception on the ground, and the issue of conscription and compulsory service enacted by the administration. The Autonomous Administration to protect the area it administers, as well as the Kurdish curriculum adopted by the Autonomous Administration. Thus, the four elements that they will fight in the Autonomous Administration are (SDF forces - teaching in the Kurdish language - compulsory service - and oil, which is outside the control of the regime), and during the coming period they will focus on destroying this economic, educational and administrative organization, through coordination in an operations room between countries The three are led by a Russian.
oil
The focus of the meeting on the issue of oil shows us the extent of the impact of this wealth on the economic capacity of the regime, and the Turkish plans aimed at stripping the Syrian Kurds and their allies from the Arab tribes of this wealth that is located in their areas, which is the common factor that highlighted the understanding between the Syrian and Turkish parties after removing the obstacles between them. Especially since the oil and gas areas are under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces, and the International Coalition (the strategic partner of the Syrian Democratic Forces in the fight against terrorism) prevents the regime and any other force from accessing it, which helps in restricting the Iranian military presence in Syria, where there is talk about The noose around the Iranian expansion in Deir Ezzor.
It is certain that the Russians aspire to deliver the regime to the sources of oil through this alliance, and the overthrow of the Syrian Democratic Forces directly means the exit of the Americans from the region, and this goal brings together the four agreed parties.
In the final analysis
The agreement of the four regimes to manage a course of war, security, and a policy directed against the Syrian Democratic Forces and the International Coalition has become just around the corner, which requires a real move from the American path in increasing its forces and capabilities, in addition to the countries of the International Coalition to protect their interests in the first place, support the Syrian Democratic Forces, and prevent any expansion of the Syrian regime And Iranian militias or a Turkish military operation. The Russians will push the Turks to return to threatening the Syrian Democratic Forces, and this may be in the western Euphrates region where Manbij, Tal Rifaat and al-Shahba are controlled by the Autonomous Administration, and in exchange for that force the Syrian Democratic Forces to accept the Quartet path if America and the coalition forces move to prevent any attempt Turkish-Iranian to strike the Autonomous Administration areas. Thus, anticipation will remain the master of the situation during the coming days and weeks. However, it is certain that the Quartet will direct all its capabilities to overthrow the Autonomous Administration and expel the International Coalition from Syria, but the question arises: Will it succeed? Or do the Western powers have another position, especially since the conflict between the West and Russia is raging in a large number of countries, especially in Ukraine?
June 23, 2023
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